Sunday, January 31, 2016

2016 NFL Mock Draft # 1

It’s a new year and a new offseason, which means it’s time for our first 2016 mock draft. We’ll do more as the draft approaches, just as we did in 2015. I am sure lots will change as the draft process continues, but we can make some educated guesses already. Plus, what else are we going to do as we wait until the Super Bowl?


For the mock draft this time, Greg will take the odds (which obviously includes the first pick in the draft). Andrew is left to picking the evens (and will make one less pick due to the Patriots not having one this year). Additionally, this draft only includes the first round, but we will add a second round as the end of April nears. So without further ado, here goes:


NOTE: We began this mock before the practices began at the Senior Bowl. Keep that in mind as things such as that will change our picks in future mocks.


The Sports Guys 2016 NFL Mock Draft


1. Tennessee Titans select: Laremy Tunsil (OT, Ole Miss)


I went back and forth on this pick between Tunsil and Bosa. I think the Titans could use a defensive star opposite Marcus Mariota, but I think the need to protect the star they already have outweighs the defensive balance that Bosa could bring to the Titans. Tunsil can come in, start right away, and flourish in the system the Titans are running with Mariota at QB.


2. Cleveland Browns select: Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)


Most mocks have the Browns taking a quarterback here, but I think that’s a lazy choice. I know the need is there, but will their new head coach (Hue Jackson) really risk his job on one of the shaky QB prospects this year? I doubt it unless they drastically improve throughout the draft process. It’s more likely he signs a veteran or even trades for somebody like AJ McCarron whom he coached last year. Bosa, on the other hand, is the top prospect on my board and would give the Browns a great pass rusher on the edge. He’s also an in-state player, which will please the fanbase for years to come.


3. San Diego Chargers select: DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)


The Chargers could use help at WR, OL, DL, DB, etc. I think this is the case of taking the best player on the board without reaching for someone simply out of need. Buckner provides them with a big bodied, versatile defensive lineman that fits their scheme, and will help their other defensive positions improve just by being on the field. Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, and Jalen Ramsey are all good options as well.


4. Dallas Cowboys select: Laquon Treadwell (WR, Ole Miss)


The Cowboys could go in many directions here, and I’m sure they hope Bosa falls to them. But in this scenario, Treadwell may be hard to pass up. Dez Bryant is clearly a stud, but the team has failed to line up a worthy wideout opposite him. Treadwell could become the #2 they need to push them closer to a title. Plus, if Bryant gets injured again as he did this past season, they now have somebody to step up in his absence.


5. Jacksonville Jaguars select: Jalen Ramsey (DB, Florida State)


Jacksonville is going to continue to develop offensively. They need to be able to stop opponents on the back end of their defense however. Ramsey can come in and play every position in the secondary as well or better than anyone currently on the roster. He’s got good size, ball skills, supports the run, and will thrive in Jacksonville’s defensive scheme.


6. Baltimore Ravens select: Ronnie Stanley (OT, Notre Dame)


It was a toss up between Stanley and a cornerback, but Stanley was the highest rated guy on my board at this point. The offensive line in Baltimore needs more talent, and Stanley would help solidify things. We’ve seen lineman out of Notre Dame do well in recent seasons (ie: Zach Martin), so this could turn out very well for Baltimore. If he (and Tunsil) are gone, they should look towards the secondary.


7. San Francisco 49ers select: Jared Goff (QB, California)


No one is ever sure what Chip Kelly is really thinking. While there are reports out there that he is leaning towards keeping Kaepernick around to play quarterback, I just don’t trust it yet. In this scenario, with Goff on the board, I think the 49ers pull the trigger. What’s even better is that he’s a California kid. You could also see them improving their front seven on defense here.


8. Miami Dolphins select: Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)


Normally we’d classify our linebackers as inside/outside/middle, but Jack has played all over the place on defense. That’s good because Miami desperately needs better linebacker play. Despite an injury that cut his last season short at UCLA, Jack will likely still be a top-15 pick. In fact, reports say he’s over a month ahead of schedule on his rehab. That means the top-10 is more likely.


9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select: Jack Conklin (OT, Michigan State)


Winston showed everyone last year why he was the first overall pick in the draft. Now the Bucs need to support and protect him. Conklin is a hard nosed tackle, that will be a solid player in the NFL for years. His upside isn’t as high as other tackles in this draft, but I think his floor is higher than most.


10. New York Giants select: A’Shawn Robinson (DT, Alabama)


The Giants had a poor defensive line this past season. Having a healthy (and two-handed) JPP would have helped considerably, but having better interior players is what they need going forward. Robinson was a stud in the middle of that great Alabama front, and Alabama players are generally viewed as great draft picks to consider year after year.


11. Chicago Bears select: Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)


The Bears will likely add talent on defense with this selection, and could actually take a player at any position on that side of the ball. Alexander is arguably the top corner in the draft and would fit the Bears very well. While Kyle Fuller has been okay for the Bears, they need a long-term starter on the other side. Alexander would be a great choice.


12. New Orleans Saints select: Jaylon Smith (OLB, Notre Dame)


Before he got hurt in ND’s bowl game, Smith was one of the top prospects in this entire draft. And while his injury may hurt his draft stock a tad, he will still go in the top-20 for sure. The Saints could use a linebacker with his skills, and could afford to be patient while he fully recovers. This would be a great fit.


13. Philadelphia Eagles select: Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson)


Lawson’s stock is surprisingly up and down. While he looked to be a sure top-10 pick a month ago, there is now a feeling that he may slide a bit. I just don’t get it. He gets after the quarterback, defends against the run, and is constantly in the backfield creating havoc. Any team that gets him is lucky. Philly, looks like that’s you.


14. Oakland Raiders select: Vernon Hargreaves III (CB, Florida)


The Raiders have some great options here and can’t really go wrong. Ragland was nearly the pick, but I thought they should improve their secondary instead. I chose Hargreaves over Eli Apple as Hargreaves is the safer option for me. I know he doesn’t have elite size, but he does everything well and makes up for it in other ways.


15. Los Angeles Rams select: Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State)


The quarterback that is currently on the rise right now is Wentz. By the time the draft arrives, Wentz could be the first quarterback taken, and it could be in the top-5 (Browns). Of course, the Rams would love for a top QB prospect to be available here at #15. Not only is quarterback their most glaring need, but Wentz could be a nice attraction for new fans in LA to come see.


16. Detroit Lions select: Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss)


The last time the Lions were in a position to draft a huge talent at defensive tackle with character issues that didn’t exactly fit their scheme, they pulled the trigger. That player, Suh, became one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, Suh took his talents to South Beach last offseason. The Lions would their defensive line to become a strength again, and Nkemdiche could help do that. At this point in the first round, he’s worth the risk.


17. Atlanta Falcons select: Reggie Ragland (ILB, Alabama)


I think Dan Quinn will want to continue stockpiling talent on defense, especially after their collapse throughout the second half of the season. If the gameplan is drafting the best available defensive player, Ragland is an easy pick here. He could be a great linebacker for Quinn’s defense and a steal in this spot.


18. Indianapolis Colts select: Taylor Decker (OT, Ohio State)


The Colts clearly need help on the defensive side of the ball, but protecting Andrew Luck has to be the top priority this offseason. I mean, he got injured for a reason right? The question here was whether to take Decker or Martin, both of which could be solid. I leaned towards Decker for now.


19. Buffalo Bills select: Noah Spence (OLB, Eastern Kentucky)


With the Bills ditching Mario Williams and going back to Rex Ryan’s traditional 3-4 defense, Spence fills a need as an edge rusher. While there are many prospects available here I considered, Spence seems to be the best fit in my opinion. If you see Eastern Kentucky and doubt he’s for real, note that he was a 5-star recruit for Ohio State and earned Big Ten honors before transferring.


20. New York Jets select: Darren Lee (OLB, Ohio State)


This makes three straight Buckeyes (or former Buckeyes) in the First Round, and a second straight outside linebacker. The Jets have a formidable defense, but could use more talent at linebacker. Lee is the best one available in my opinion. This could all change if a top notch quarterback falls to them here however. But in this case, it didn’t happen.


21. Washington Redskins select: Jarran Reed (DT, Alabama)


Washington has a lot of options here, and many of them depend upon what they do in free agency. But a best player available approach makes the most sense and that means Reed was the pick. He’s yet another stud from the Crimson Tide front-7, and I think he could play in multiple positions for them.


22. Houston Texans select: Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)


While many expect them to take a quarterback early, I’m not sold on any of the available prospects at this point in the draft (no offense Paxton Lynch). So why not select an immediate starter at another marquee offensive position? Most believe Elliott is the top running back prospect this year, and I think he’d be a great choice for a team ready to move on from Arian Foster. Heisman winner Henry could be another option.


23. Minnesota Vikings select: Josh Doctson (WR, TCU)


The Vikings need more weapons around Teddy Bridgewater and Doctson is one of the best ones in the draft. Depending on what happens at the combine, he could become the first wide receiver taken in April. He would bring nice size on the outside opposite Diggs, and would give Teddy a needed safety valve.


24. Cincinnati Bengals select: Emmanuel Ogbah (DE, Oklahoma State)


The Bengals could also look at wide receiver here (since they have multiple free agents at that position), but the team can’t go wrong with a defender with big upside. Ogbah could develop into a stud at the next level and could be a disruptive force.


25. Pittsburgh Steelers select: Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)


This is the third cornerback off the board, but he could go earlier because he’s the biggest of the three. Nonetheless, the Steelers secondary struggled this season. Apple would likely start immediately, and would have to learn quickly going against Antonio Brown in practice every day.


26. Seattle Seahawks select: Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)


While I still believe they need more talent at WR, the Seahawks think they are set with Baldwin and Lockett moving forward (although losing Kearse this offseason could hurt). I’d look for them to address the interior of their defensive line instead though. Rankins isn’t Aaron Donald, but he reminds me of him in many ways. And it’s scary to think that he could actually improve their already great defense.


27. Green Bay Packers select: Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)


Green Bay has been searching for a long term anchor in the middle of their defensive front. Billings could be just that. He also is great value here as he is ranked much higher on nearly everyone’s big board. Green Bay strikes again.


28. Kansas City Chiefs select: Michael Thomas (WR, Ohio State)


How many Buckeyes is that now in the last 15 picks? The funny thing is that I chose Thomas over another Ohio State wide receiver in Braxton Miller. Either way, KC needs to line up somebody worthwhile opposite Maclin on offense. If they don’t agree, look for them to add a defensive tackle.


29. Arizona Cardinals select: Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia)


If Floyd meets his potential, then it is simply not fair that the Cardinals get him this late in the first round. The Cardinals lacked a consistent pass rush at times, and Floyd could provide that. He is also athletic enough to drop back into coverage at times, which is something all linebackers need to do at the next level.


30. Denver Broncos select: Hunter Henry (TE, Arkansas)


To be honest, I have no clue what direction Denver will go here. The best players on my board are defensive players, but Denver really doesn’t need to upgrade their defense in any way (although I like Austin Johnson and Shilique Calhoun a lot). There are a couple wide receivers I considered, but they don’t have a need there either. Paxton Lynch could be in play, but I think they’ll re-sign Brock Osweiler. So that left Hunter Henry as the only decent option. Kubiak loves tight ends and they surely missed Julius Thomas this past season. Denver may also considering trading this pick, as this could be a great place for a team looking to get back into the first round (for a team wanting to draft the falling Paxton Lynch).


31. Carolina Panthers select: Kevin Dodd (DE, Clemson)


While the Carolina wide receiving corps isn’t sexy, I passed on that need in order to get younger on defense. Jared Allen isn’t going to be around long term, so Dodd is an obvious choice here. He has great upside and was simply overshadowed a little by Lawson this season. The other defensive need is at corner, a position where they are also old.


NOTE: Due to “Deflategate”, the Patriots forfeited their first round pick this year leaving only 31 spots in the First Round.


Hope you enjoyed our first mock draft. And if you didn’t, go screw yourself!

By: The Sports Guys