Congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats, who won their second national title in three years. They were consistently great all season, and to me were the clear top team all tournament long. Jalen Brunson is likely ending his career as one of the best players ever at Villanova, and Jay Wright continues to climb up the all-time coaching ranks. They truly deserved this one.
March Madness once again proved to be the best sports drama in the world. Loyola was clearly an epic story. We all love Sister Jean now and who saw them coming out of the South? But let’s not forget that we saw the first ever #16 vs. #1 upset, when UMBC took out Virginia! Not only were the Cavs a #1 seed, but they were also the top overall seed. As always, we saw upsets, breakout performances, and buzzer beaters. To be honest, the whole season was as unpredictable as ever. Quite a ride for all college basketball fans, despite the controversy surrounding the sport…
But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early (posted a minute after the championship game), which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:
Really Early 2018-19 College Basketball Top 25
NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2017-18 record in the second parenthesis.
1. (2) Villanova Wildcats (36-4)
The National Champs start as my preseason favorite. Every key contributor could return, but my guess is Bridges and Brunson will declare for the NBA Draft. That’s it though. Two top 50 wings will help soften those blows, and Jahvon Quinerly is a five-star point guard that will replace Brunson. The interior duo of Spellman and Paschall could be the best in basketball next year, and I expect DiVincenzo to become an absolute star, just like he was in the championship game. Jay Wright, one of the best in the business, will keep this program rolling.
2. (4) Kansas Jayhawks (31-8)
Kansas is right on Villanova’s heels for the top spot, but just like we saw in the Final Four, I trust the current Villanova system slightly more than Kansas. As for the roster, we know Graham and Mykhaliliuk graduate, both of which are huge losses. Newman, Vick, and Azubuike face difficult NBA decisions however, and that’s where the roster uncertainty comes in. The bench for Kansas will return and be ready to step up, and the Jayhawks will add a TON of talent. Three major transfers practiced with the team all year and will now be eligible (Charlie Moore and the Lawson brothers). Plus, Kansas has three McDonald’s All-American commits, a couple of which stood out in the recent all-star exhibition. Lastly, they are a finalist for Romeo Langford, the top uncommitted recruit in the country. Looks like another Big 12 title at the very least.
3. (19) Auburn Tigers (26-8)
The NCAA scandal rocked Auburn early this past year as sophomores Purifoy and Wiley were forced to sit out this season, and a dark cloud surrounded head coach Bruce Pearl. Anfernee McLemore also got injured late in the year and had surgery recently. Yet Auburn shocked everyone and won the SEC during the regular season (tied with Tennessee). Next year, every single player returns, Purifoy and Wiley will return (at least for most of the year), and McLemore should be healthy by the start of the year. As for Pearl, their AD recently stated he plans on Pearl to still be his coach next year. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Auburn is in the national title hunt.
4. (13) Tennessee Volunteers (26-9)
Tennessee surprised most this year with their tremendous level of play. They tied for the SEC title, finished in the top 15 nationally, and were named a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They could have been in the Final Four had Loyola missed their last second shot against them. The good news is that they should be even better this coming year. Every starter returns and all but one bench player does too. Schofield is testing the waters, but most expect him back. They don’t have any recruits coming in, but who needs them? I expect even bigger things for Tennessee this season.
5. (9) Duke Blue Devils (29-8)
Coach K has turned Duke into a “one and done” powerhouse, and this year will be a prime example. Duke may lose its entire starting lineup to the draft (Allen is the lone graduate), but they are adding the best recruiting class in the country. In fact, it’s the first time ever that the top three players have all committed to the same place. Not even Kentucky has done that! Barrett, Williamson, and Reddish are those players, but they also add #1 point guard Tre Jones as well. So they will be young, but boy will they be talented!
6. (8) Gonzaga Bulldogs (32-5)
Stop me if you heard this before… Of all the non-power conference teams, Gonzaga has the best chance at winning a national title next season. Surprising right? Williams and Melson are both key losses, but the Bulldogs should return everyone else. Perkins/Norvell make up an electric backcourt duo, and Hachimura/Tillie create a dynamic frontcourt. Add in a good transfer player and two solid recruits and Mark Few has more than enough skill to compete at the highest level again.
7. (18) Kentucky Wildcats (26-11)
This is a team that has no seniors on the roster, but we all know there will be plenty that leave early. The question is who and how many? As for the replacements, the Wildcats currently have three commits, all five-star recruits. And Coach Cal is still involved with many of the top uncommitted players. So while I can’t predict the final roster, I can tell you that once again they’ll be loaded with talent.
8. (NR) Kansas State Wildcats (25-12)
Fresh off a run to the Elite 8, the Wildcats are set for a huge season. Every single player from that squad is set to return, barring what I’d consider a poor NBA decision by Dean Wade or anyone else. Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed really stepped up in the postseason, so I’d expect big years for both of them. This is one of the few teams that could realistically challenge Kansas atop the Big 12.
9. (1) Virginia Cavaliers (31-3)
After a shocking exit in their first March Madness game, it’s safe to say the season didn’t end well. On the flip side, who thought Virginia would be #1 and dominant heading into the season? Tony Bennett showed why he is one of the best coaches in the country, yet constantly goes under the radar. Next year, much of the perimeter will remain the same led by Guy and Jerome, but Virginia will miss a couple interior players in Hall and Wilkins. They don’t have a great recruiting class coming in, but they never do. Bennett will develop what he’s got and have them in the mix once again.
10. (10) North Carolina Tarheels (26-11)
North Carolina will have a different vibe about them next year due to their graduating seniors. Cam Johnson and Theo Pinson will be missed, but Joel Berry will be the biggest loss the Tarheels have had in a while. Their style of play will have to be adjusted slightly, and chemistry could be an issue early. But Luke Maye leads a list of talented returners, and Nassir Little is one of three highly touted recruits, two of which are five-star players. Once Roy Williams adjusts to his new roster, he’ll have them among the nation’s elite in no time.
11. (15) West Virginia Mountaineers (26-11)
WVU continues to churn out successful teams year after year under Bob Huggins. And while the graduation of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles will hurt, I expect the Mountaineers to continue their winning ways. Everyone else returns, which includes one of the best defensive bigs and last names in the country: Konate! Esa Ahmad will be able to play the entire season this time around, point guard Brandon Knapper (highly touted freshman) will return to the team after missing the whole year with an injury, and the team adds a couple key recruits to provide depth. Lots to look forward to.
12. (24) Nevada Wolf Pack (29-8)
This Sweet 16 team will be back at it next year, hoping to build upon their successful season. Five of their top six players return, including Jordan Caroline and the exciting Martin brothers. All three of those players averaged over 14 points per game. In addition to their talented returnees, four transfers join the program. Despite playing for smaller schools, all four transfers averaged double digit points. Should be a massively talented bunch.
13. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (21-12)
Buzz Williams continues to improve this program, as was the case again this past season. Only one starter moves on, so the team will take another leap in the year to come. Robinson, Hill, Alexander-Walker, Clarke, and Blackshear highlight what should be a deep roster. A few good recruits will add to that depth, and a couple players should be back at full strength after missing the season due to injury/redshirt. After finishing in the top half of the ACC this past season, they are now threatening the top four.
14. (NR) UCLA Bruins (21-12)
You are looking at my preseason Pac-12 favorite next season, despite some uncertainty with the returning group. Welsh and Gyorgy graduate, Holiday has stated he’s gone, Hands is testing without an agent, and we still don’t know about Wilkes. Assuming Hands and Wilkes return (or at least one), this team will still have star power, and a lot of promising talent remains throughout the rest of the roster (Prince Ali for example). The team will welcome back two of the three “China Shoplifters,” both of which were top 100 players. UCLA also welcomes the second best recruiting class in the country, led by Moses Brown and Shareef O’Neal. So they will look different, but this is another loaded roster.
15. (5) Michigan State Spartans (30-5)
A year ago, we all thought Michigan State was going to be insanely good, especially when Bridges chose to return for his sophomore season. They won the Big Ten regular season, but fizzled in both the Big Ten Tourney and the NCAA Tourney. Now they are set to graduate a few contributors, and lose even more early to the NBA. But despite all that, they are still a contender for another Big Ten title. MSU was deep, so plenty of talent returns. The list should include Langford, Winston, McQuaid, Tillman, Goins, and Ward (testing the waters without an agent). Coach Izzo also welcomes a handful of freshmen that will provide plenty of bench production. This will give them depth to overcome the lack of All-American talent like they had this past season.
16. (11) Purdue Boilermakers (30-7)
Most think Purdue will take a major step backwards next year with four key seniors departing. But if Carson Edwards returns (he’s testing the waters), they should be a top threat once again in the Big Ten. Edwards, Cline, Eastern, and Haarms will all be ready for larger roles. Dowuona and Hunter are perfect freshman additions that I expect to contribute immediately. In addition, last week they secured a commitment from Evan Boudreaux, a grad transfer from Dartmouth. He’s a double-double threat that can shoot from the perimeter (a better rebounding Vincent Edwards). While I don’t expect 30 wins again, this will still be a good team.
17. (NR) Syracuse Orange (23-14)
The Orange were inconsistent this year, yet managed to creep into the NCAA Tourney, much to my surprise. Then, they won three games (including their First Four win), highlighted by an upset win over the mighty Spartans of Michigan State. The team possessed no scholarship seniors, which means everyone should return (although one little used reserve has stated he will transfer). Although they lost a top recruit to the G-League recently, they still bring in an impact player in Jalen Carey, ESPN’s #5 shooting guard. He will help provide some perimeter scoring, which they lacked this season. Things are looking up.
18. (NR) Mississippi State Bulldogs (25-12)
The Bulldogs finished seventh in the SEC this past year, pretty decent in a loaded league. They even made a deep run in the NIT before losing to the eventual champion Penn State. Every rotation player is on track to return, and the team is adding two extremely good recruits (one five-star). Expect an improvement once again from this squad.
19. (7) Michigan Wolverines (33-8)
Michigan is coming off a memorable season that included a Big Ten Tourney Title, and a trip to the National Championship Game. Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson graduate, and Moe Wagner will almost certainly go pro after a massive end to the year. But the role players on this team are all ready to step up, just like they do year after year under Coach Beilein. Simpson, Poole, and Matthews will comprise a terrific backcourt. The frontcourt will be a group effort, spearheaded by Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske, Ignas Brazdeikis (highly ranked international), and Brandon Johns (top 60 recruit). With an improved defense and a versatile offensive system, Michigan won’t drop off too much.
20. (NR) Alabama Crimson Tide (20-16)
Alabama has shown steady improvement under Avery Johnson, making the NCAA Tourney this past season. I expect another step forward in 2018-19. Whole Collin Sexton will head to the NBA, the rest of the postseason roster returns. Two players who missed the season due to injury could return also. In addition, three four-star recruits join the fray, which can help replace Sexton’s impact. At the very least, they should be a more consistent bunch in 2018-19.
21. (23) Florida Gators (21-13)
I was high on Florida in my early Top 25 last year, but then they lost Egbunu for the season to injury and Devin Robinson to the NBA Draft early (went undrafted). So I’m tempering my expectations this time around since they are graduating Koulechov and Chiozza. Jalen Hudson is testing the waters, but isn’t hiring an agent so he could return along with the rest of the roster. Florida has a top 15 recruiting class that features three top 100 recruits, all perimeter players that fit White’s four guard sets. At the very least, they should perform as well as they did this past season.
22. (6) Cincinnati Bearcats (31-5)
It’s hard to build off of what they accomplished this past season, but they are certainly in a spot to succeed again. Cincy played ten guys frequently this year, and seven of them return (assuming Evans remains in the draft). That already puts them ahead of most teams in the country in terms of quality contributors. Leading the way are starters Cumberland and Jenifer, both of whom will be among the best players in the AAC. It should be their league to win once again.
23. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs (21-12)
What a year for TCU, finally getting back to the “Big Dance.” It could have been even better had Jaylen Fisher not gotten injured a couple months ago. His return from injury will be a big boost heading into next season. While two impact players depart (Wlliams and Brodziansky), the majority of the rotation comes back led by Fisher. The newcomers come in a variety of ways: three four-star recruits, one international prospect, and one highly regarded juco. This all blends together to create a team with a lot of potential.
24. (NR) Oregon Ducks (23-13)
Oregon was slightly under the radar this past year, but they are coming off a solid 23-win season and a nice run in the NIT. In terms of minutes played, eight of their top nine guys return, including Pritchard, E. Brown, and T. Brown. All three averaged double figures. The reason they are ranked this high though is due to their incoming recruiting class. Bol Bol is the #1 center in high school, Louis King is a fellow five-star recruit, Will Richardson is the #8 PG in the country, and Miles Norris is yet another Top-100 player. They are in the mix for another star as well. The Ducks are back once again…
25. (14) Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-10)
Nobody saw Texas Tech coming this past season, but now they’ll be playing with bigger expectations. They are losing four seniors, notably Keenan Evans among them, but this was a deep and talented team, so plenty of contributors return. Zhaire Smith is a stud and could have a massive year. Culver and Stevenson will emerge more and more as well. The team adds a couple four-star recruits, a JC transfer, and a Missouri transfer (second semester). While I don’t expect them to challenge Kansas at the top of the conference, they are a top half Big 12 team for sure.
Five “Wildcard” Teams
NOTE: These five teams are NOT the next five teams in my overall rankings (#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.
(22) Miami Hurricanes (22-10)
Miami should be solid no matter what, and a likely NCAA tournament team. They’ve developed a lot of good players that will be back, and add in a very good transfer in Miles Wilson. However, their top 25 status is very dependent on NBA decisions. They already lose Ja’Quan Newton to graduation, but could lose Lonnie Walker and Bruce Brown early to the draft. Brown is likely to hire an agent, while Walker is more of an unknown. Keep an eye on those names over the next couple months.
(NR) Texas A&M Aggies (22-13)
The Aggies were up and down this year, playing as a top ten team at times, and a lowly SEC pretender at other times. In the big dance, they routed North Carolina to make the Sweet 16, and then got blown out themselves by Michigan. While the team loses a couple pieces heading into next year, the NBA decisions will determine how good this team will be. Williams, Davis, Hogg, and even Gilder face NBA decisions. Williams is likely gone, and Davis said he’ll test the waters without an agent. This uncertainty lands them among my wildcard teams.
(NR) Indiana Hoosiers (16-15)
Indiana was very up and down this season, it’s first under Archie Miller. But the ‘D’, Archie’s calling card, improved dramatically from start to finish. At one point during the Big Ten season, KenPom had them as a top ten defense over the course of a ten game stretch. With All-Big Ten selection Juwan Morgan headlining the returnees (assuming he returns that is), and a solid recruiting class coming in, they are bound to improve. The reason they are a “wildcard” though hinges on their two remaining scholarships. If Romeo Langford commits (#5 overall player and has IU in his top three), they jump into my top 25 and become Big Ten title contenders. They are also in the grad transfer mix.
(NR) Vanderbilt Commodores (12-20)
Vandy struggled this season in a loaded SEC, plus they lose their top three players to graduation. But Bryce Drew is set to bring in a tremendous recruiting class. Two McDonald’s All-Americans have already committed (Garland and Shittu), along with another Top 100 player and Notre Dame transfer Matt Ryan. That’s still not enough to push them into my rankings; however, they are another finalist for Romeo Langford (mentioned above with Indiana), and that would push them over the edge.
(NR) Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-11)
Nebraska won a lot more overall games than I would have guessed prior to the year, and they had a great Big Ten record. Apparently nobody truly believed in them as they were snubbed by the committee and missed out on March Madness. Next year could be different, as nearly the whole roster could be back. In fact, they could return their top four scorers and top four rebounders. They have to dodge two bullets first though. James Palmer Jr. and Isaac Copeland, their best players, will test the NBA waters without an agent. If both return, they are on the verge of earning a top 25 ranking. If one or both depart, then never mind.
Previously Ranked (last AP Poll) and Considered: Xavier, Arizona, Wichita State, Ohio State, Clemson, Houston, St. Mary’s
Other Teams that Just Missed the Cut: Butler, Arizona State, Florida State, Arkansas, Penn State, Providence, USC, Louisville, Wisconsin, Maryland, Marquette, Missouri, Creighton, Texas
By: Andrew Miller
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