Friday, July 13, 2012

Fantasy Running Backs


Top 50 Fantasy Running Backs

1. Arian Foster – Is there even a doubt? He runs behind a very good line, will be a workhorse on a team that likes to run, his team will have the lead often, will get goaline carries, and is an adequate receiver out of the backfield. Expect 2010 type numbers.

2. Ray Rice – He led all running backs in points last season. He will get all of the Ravens’ carries now that Williams is gone. He is the best catching RB in the game and may lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage.

3. LeSean McCoy – Was a TD machine a season ago and will be the focal point on a great offensive team. Once again, this is a back that will pile up catches along with carries. If Andy Reid keeps running it more and more, McCoy can lead the NFL in rushing this year.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew – If you want a guy with guaranteed carries, MJD is your guy. He leads in the NFL in carries over the last 3 seasons with 954. Once again, he’ll get a boatload of looks in a run first offense. He can catch it also, and is a threat to reach double digits in total TD’s.

5. Chris Johnson – I expect a return to greatness this year for CJ. He probably won’t eclipse 2,000 yards again, but he will be among the league leaders in rushing yards. The passing game should be better for the Titans, which may make it easier on him. If he gets more carries in the redzone, this ranking may be low.

6. Ryan Mathews – He finally lived up to potential late last season. With Tolbert now gone, he should be even more productive. Norv Turner says he may lead the NFL in rushing this season so they plan to use him plenty. His issue is with injuries so handcuffing him is a must in fantasy this year.

7. Darren McFadden – There is a lot of risk with this pick based on his history with injuries. But his talent is hard to match and his backup Bush is gone. When playing, DMC will be one of the best. Just like Mathews, get a good backup.

8. Matt Forte – Currently, Forte is in a contract dispute. But I am assuming a deal gets done and he’ll be fine for week 1. This guy was leading the NFL in total yards a season ago before getting injured. But he is completely healthy and will be a threat on the ground and through the air. New addition Bush may steal carries though.

9. Trent Richardson – There is a lot of hype surrounding this talent, similar to Peterson when he came into the NFL. He will be the focal point of Cleveland immediately, but they will still struggle to score. The fact that they may struggle passing makes his ability to rush effectively questionable. He will get touches though.

10. Marshawn Lynch – He ended 2011 in “Beast Mode” and made fantasy owners (like myself) happy they drafted him. Seattle should be more balanced this year offensively so I expect him to be successful. I just don’t think he can continue his TD streak however.

11. DeMarco Murray – We all saw the talent last year in some of his epic big games. We also know he got injured and will be fighting back this year. Will he be healthy enough to keep his high level going? Or will some carries be given to Felix Jones? High risk, high reward here.

12. Adrian Peterson – How fast and how well can he recover from his ACL and MCL injuries? That’s the only thing you need answered because we all know this guy can dominate in fantasy.

13. Jamaal Charles – Keeping the theme of injured RB’s going, Charles is returning from one of his own. I expect he will be just fine come September, so I would draft with confidence in that regard. My worry is that they signed Peyton Hillis. He could steal many of his touches away. They will run a lot as a team however.

14. Michael Turner – If you are in a PPR league, let Turner slide even more. But in most formats, he will produce just like he has for years. He will get a lot of carries, particularly around the goaline. He will rush over 1,000 yards again too. But he won’t produce epic games and his value is decreasing.

15. Steven Jackson – Similar to Turner, Jackson is an aging workhorse who consistently produces. He will once again get the bulk of the carries and yards, but his lack of TD’s will keep him from being a tier 1 back.

16. Fred Jackson – Before his injury, Jackson was a top 3 fantasy back. He should be just as explosive this season. The Bills though are hinting at a time-split between him and CJ Spiller (who filled in nicely during Fred’s injury). That’s a story to watch.

17. Frank Gore – After a great season in 2011, one could expect another monster year in 2012. Although he will be a quality running back, there are now other players that will impede his touches. The 49ers brought in Jacobs and James, and retained Kendall Hunter.

18. Reggie Bush – Last season Reggie figured out how to run in the NFL. He came into his own and delivered in a big way. One would expect similar production but Miami is saying they will spell him more. Owners should hope that’s a lie.

19. Shonn Greene – He had his best year last season and finally lived up to potential. They will be even more run heavy this season with new coordinator Sparano, which means he will get plenty of looks. No back on the roster threatens his carries, but QB Tim Tebow will, especially with his wildcat packages around the goaline.

20. Doug Martin – If Martin indeed steals all the carries away from Blount immediately, this ranking is too low… possibly way too low. He can do it all and is an underrated prospect. With the offense expected to get better in Tampa Bay, he could become the focal point.

21. Darren Sproles – The Saints backfield is crowded but he stood out last year with his ability to catch the ball. In PPR leagues especially, he is worth your second running back spot. He will continue to produce in this high-flying offense.

22. Willis McGahee – He is the unquestioned number one on an offense that could thrive this season. Manning will keep boxes from closing in on him, but Manning will also shift the focus away from him a bit in terms of how the offense is run.

23. Roy Helu – The good news is that this guy has tons of talent and dominated late last year. He can run and catch and will play in a decent offense. The bad news is that his coach is Shanahan and nobody knows what the RB situation will be from week to week.

24. Ahmad Bradshaw – Wasn’t an effective runner a year ago but he scored TD’s. Expect that to continue with the departure of Brandon Jacobs. With the drafting of David Wilson, the worry here is if he continues to struggle running, how much time will be given to the first round pick?

25. Beanie Wells – He had a great season last year and rewarded owners who drafted him. He is still young and the running game could be even better this year in Arizona. He will, however, be pushed by Williams, who was injured in 2011.

26. Isaac Redman – This obviously depends on the status or Mendenhall… but at this time Redman is clearly the man at RB for the Steelers. He will get the majority of touches at that position as long as Mendenhall is out, and tons of goaline carries.

27. Steven Ridley – A guy with tons of talent, and this is the year that he could breakout. With the Law Firm now gone, he should become the lead back. The Patriots always split carries, but if he gets the most, he could go over 1,000 yards.

28. Jonathan Stewart – If this list was put together based on talent, Stewart would fine himself way up the list. But he is in a complete committee situation, and he isn’t even the starter. He will produce the best though for Carolina at the RB position.

29. BenJarvis Green-Ellis – The Bengals are no longer led by Cedric Benson, but by BJGE. He will be the starting back immediately in Cincinnati. He will not be a workhorse however but in a committee situation, just like in NE. Production will then be similar.

30. James Starks – With Ryan Grant out of the picture, Starks is clearly the first option in Green Bay. But they don’t run. When they do, he’ll be the guy so watch carefully how much they put in on the ground.

31. Donald Brown – Another starter who could be a flyer this year in the mid rounds, but may be worth it. This will be his first season as the top dog AND in an offense with a good QB. You can’t judge last year based on the fact they had no QB.

32. C.J. Spiller – Spiller produced in a big way when Jackson went down with an injury. That production will earn him a bigger role than a normal backup would get. He is still behind Jackson though on the depth chart. He should go higher in PPR leagues.

33. Jahvid Best – Another injury risk, but a great talent. He produces particularly well in PPR leagues. There is question about if he is the Lions’ number one back with others in the mix, but I think he has the best chance to produce well for them.

34. DeAngelo Williams – The starter in Carolina’s potent offense, yet he is the second Panther listed. It is a total committee approach, but they do run it well.

35. Mark Ingram – A fantasy reach last year, but 2012 could be the year he becomes fantasy relevant. Another committee in New Orleans, but he may see the most carries this season, including the goaline carries.

36. Michael Bush – Came into a tough situation with Forte clearly the man in Chicago. BUT, he should get plenty of TD attempts, and would be a fantasy star is Forte gets injured or holds out.

37. Peyton Hillis – The breakout star from a couple seasons ago is back with that same coordinator, this time in Kansas City. He is behind Charles on the depth chart, but with him returning from injury, Hillis should see a fair number of carries.

38. Ben Tate – The league’s most valuable backup. If Foster ever goes down, Tate is a RB1. Even with Foster there, he is a decent option for a flex spot or fill in.

39. Pierre Thomas – Another Saints running back. For a team that throws a lot, they have a ton of options to run as well. Thomas runs and catches, which shows more versatility than the two mentioned above. But he is still the third option.

40. David Wilson – He was drafted high for a reason. If Bradshaw struggles, Wilson will step into the lead role quickly. He will have an impact regardless though. Even more valuable in keeper leagues as his role could expand fast over the next couple years.

41. LaGarrette Blount – Most expect him to lose his starting job to rookie Martin, but he’ll still get touches each game, including the goaline work. If he wins the battle then he will shoot up draft boards.

42. Mikel LeShoure – Right there with Best as the top runner for Detroit. He missed last year due to injury, which is a concern, but his upside is great.

43. Ryan Williams – Many people think that Williams will push Wells for time in the Cardinals running game. Pay attention to this closely as he could end up being a steal.

44. Felix Jones – Will backup Murray but will see decent work each game. Murray missed time last year so Jones could be a high-end backup.

45. Shane Vereen – With BJGE gone in NE, Vereen will chance (behind Ridley) to step in and produce in this high-powered offense. The Patriots are quietly a good running team so he is worth a late pick.

46. Ronnie Hillman – Watch out for Hillman this season, particularly in PPR leagues. The Broncos will use McGahee to run, but Hillman will catch the ball a lot out of the backfield. He is like a younger Darren Sproles.

47. Toby Gerhart – Late last season, Gerhart owners were in love. With AP battling back from injury, Toby could get his chance again. AP is supposed to be back week 1, but if not, grab this guy fast.

48. Bernard Scott – With the unknown nature of NFL backfields, Scott could be a steal. We all assume they signed BJGE to be the starter, but Scott has always produced when given time. Could he actually become the lead guy?

49. Isaiah Pead – A young, exciting player that will serve as a change of pace option to Steven Jackson. If Jackson ever tires from all the work he has gotten over many years, Pead can handle more. Pead is great for keepers, as he will become the main guy soon.

50. Tim Hightower/Evan Royster – Shanahan is always screwy with RB’s. So Helu may only be the man for long. These guys may see their chances sooner than you would expect.

Andrew

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