Fantasy Busts

2012 Fantasy Busts

Before I give you my list of fantasy busts, let me first define my definition of a bust. I define a bust as a player that seriously underperforms his draft position, or position ranking.

For example, last year Michael Vick was a first round pick by all, and even chosen by some number one overall. Because of injuries and inconsistent play, he wasn’t even close to that sort of production.

So without further ado, here are three busts at every position:

Quarterbacks

Matt Stafford – Last year, Stafford finally was able to play a full season without injuries.  He flourished with over 40 total touchdowns and massive yardage. This year, they face a more difficult schedule, teams will be better prepared for the attack, and he will be without a consistent running game. I don’t trust his ability to stay healthy and he very well may miss some time.

In mocks this year, I’ve seen him taken commonly in the second round (or in some cases higher). To me, he is more like a fourth round pick.

Eli Manning – Manning is also coming off a career season both on the field and in fantasy. I think they get back to running it more this year though, and I think they will be playing with the lead a bit more. I don’t know if Cruz can match his production from last year, and Nicks is currently beat up. After winning the Super Bowl, their schedule is one of the toughest in the league, and they play in a division with great defenses.

His preseason quarterback rank has been as high as sixth, ahead of his brother, Rivers, and Romo. I don’t think that’s accurate. Even more, RGIII and Cutler may also pass him up as the season progresses. I'm picking elsewhere for my QB, unless he slides below these others.

Mark Sanchez – To be fair, Sanchez isn’t a hot commodity at all this season in fantasy. But the fact that he is even drafted at all is confusing. They are a true run first team, without any reliable receivers, and he is the fan’s second choice to quarterback. Tim Tebow is in town and will take snaps in the wildcat often. And if things go bad with Sanchez, Tebow will likely take over completely.

Because of these concerns, Sanchez isn’t even worthy of being a backup. Don’t draft him on draft day.

Running Backs

Ryan Mathews – On Yahoo Sports, Mathews was originally rated as the fourth best running back. That is laughable to me. He is injury ridden (as seen already in the preseason) and he plays on a team that loves to throw. They also turn to ball over and will likely be playing from behind a lot. I don’t like those odds to finish that high.

To me, he isn’t a first round choice. I would feel more comfortable taking him with a third round selection.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Mr. Reliable is holding out. We saw how that affected Chris Johnson last year and it wasn’t good. If he does report before the season, who is to say he is in game shape and in the flow early. He is on a bad team with a bad quarterback and they will be playing from behind. He also has a dangerous backup playing behind him in Rashad Jennings.

Again, he is going in the first round but I’d feel more confortable in round three at this point. If he reports now, that may change slightly.

Roy Helu – Roy dominated late last year and may have helped win fantasy championships. He enters this year as the probable starter for a dynamic running team. The problem is the word probable. He plays victim to Coach Shanahan, who never runs one guy consistently. Evan Royster and Tim Hightower will have weeks where they run wild and Helu won’t.

To me, Roy Helu isn’t worthy of a RB1 or RB2 spot on your team. He is more of a flex or high-end backup.

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald – He is ranked as the second best WR and is often a first round pick in mock drafts. I agree with his talent, but not his situation in Arizona. If Kurt Warner were there and still in his prime chucking it around, sure Fitz would be a great pick. But with Kolb/Skelton there, I don’t like it. Michael Floyd was also brought in to steal some targets from Larry. This doesn’t add up to his second best status at the position.

If one of their QB’s shows something early, he may have a good year. But I see him as a borderline top ten wide receiver right now.

NOTE: I had put Kolb as a sleeper earlier this summer. I don’t think that applies any longer after a minor injury and horrendous preseason showing.

Dwayne Bowe – Another guy who is ultra-talented, but plays with a below average quarterback. The fact that he is currently holding out for a bigger contract doesn’t help him either. The Chiefs will also run the ball a lot this year making his targets decrease already. Jon Baldwin could quickly become the WR of choice if Bowe isn't careful.

Bowe is often taken as a WR1 or WR2, but I see him more as a possible WR3 or a flex guy.

Sidney Rice – Here’s the bottom line: Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens were brought in. That means Seattle didn’t think Rice had what it takes to be a lead guy. Don’t draft him unless he is on your bench in fantasy this year!

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski – Before you kill me for doing this, let me start be saying he should still be a top two tight end this year. I think Jimmy Graham will beat him out. The reason I say he will be a bust is that most are taking him in round 1 or 2. There is no way he will score all those touchdowns again with all those mouths to feed in New England. Therefore, his value is extremely lowered.

I would still take him in round 3, but no higher.

Vernon Davis – I have always had mixed feelings about this guy. Physically he is a beast. Production wise, he did great late last year. But they brought in so many other guys that will steal targets and touchdowns. The team may also be in the lead often and be relying on running the ball.

Don’t draft this guy until you complete the rest of your starting lineup. If he is still available then, draft away!

Tony Gonzalez – Eventually this old man will wither. I say it’s this year. Roddy White and Julio Jones will have big years. Tony is now a third option in the receiving game. With a decent run game to boot, pass on Tony this year.

I only view him as a high-end backup. Draft another TE first, and don’t get stuck with him as your starter.

Kickers/Defenses

Just like when I previewed this position in a previous blog, all I would say is don’t waste draft picks early on these spots. Don’t look at production from last year either, but how they will do this season. Play matchups instead and you should be fine.

Andrew