Monday, January 21, 2013

Andrew's March Talk


We’re now over halfway through the year, and under two months away from Selection Sunday. I have thoroughly enjoyed the college basketball season, with this past Saturday truly being a highlight. Teams are now collecting signature wins, and conference play is revealing the true colors of teams across the country. Here is how things look at this point:

NOTE: These are not team rankings, but seeding’s based upon each team’s resume up to this point in the year.

1 Seeds

1. Duke – Number 1 in RPI with wins over Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Ohio State, Louisville, and Temple.
2. Michigan – 5 in RPI, Big Ten favorites, wins over Pitt, KSU, NCST, and at Minnesota.
3. Kansas – 2 in RPI and will likely win the Big 12 again too.
4. Syracuse – Gets the nod over Louisville here since they just beat them on the road.

2 Seeds

Arizona – Don’t look pretty all the time but they’ve beaten Florida and SD State and have only lost at Oregon. 3 in RPI.
Louisville – Dropped to a 2 seed by losing to Syracuse at home on Saturday.
Florida – SEC Favorites have beaten Wisconsin, Marquette, FSU, and Missouri.
Butler – Gets the nod over Indiana here due to their head-to-head win against them.

3 Seeds

Indiana – Preseason number one has some work to due after losing to Wisconsin.
Gonzaga – Lost a heartbreaker at Butler but still in good shape overall.
Minnesota – Only 3 losses came against top 5 teams (Duke, IU, Michigan).
Michigan State – Solid RPI, no bad losses, and wins against Kansas and Ohio State.

4 Seeds

Oregon – The Ducks are playing the best basketball of any team out west.
Kansas State – Bad RPI but have beaten a number of quality teams.
New Mexico – Leading the Mountain West early, and boast a top 10 RPI.
N.C. State – Handed Duke their only loss of the year.

5 Seeds

Miami – Still don’t know how legit this team is, but they can show me this week against Duke.
Wichita State – Win over Creighton Saturday proves their legitimacy.
Creighton – Their early win over Wisconsin is looking better and better.
Ohio State – Their losses don’t hurt them but only Michigan win helps them.

6 Seeds

Cincinnati – Went though a bad stretch in early January, but fine now.
Missouri – They need Bowers, and it showed in an ugly loss to Florida on Saturday.
VCU – Winners of 13 straight…
Marquette – Solid RPI due to a solid start in the Big East.

7 Seeds

Notre Dame – Terrible RPI but they have a decent resume outside of that.
UNLV – No bad losses but few good wins. Good thing they won at SD State.
Illinois – Tons of resume wins but are fading quickly in Big Ten play.
Oklahoma – In this spot due to their top 15 RPI, but only as a placeholder for now.

8 Seeds

Connecticut – Have endured a pretty tough schedule, but need to start winning again.
Mississippi – Terrible RPI because they haven’t played tough competition.
Oklahoma State – When ranking these teams, their win over NCST stands out.
Colorado – Impressive resume but they are falling apart. Probably too high here.

Next Four: SD State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Colorado State

Other At-Large Bids (alphabetical): Baylor, Boise State, Georgetown, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Temple, Wyoming

3 comments:

  1. Several things:
    Overall I don't disagree with much but I do have a problem with several things.
    1. Indiana is a 2 seed at this point. Butler is not a 2 seed right now. They should be flip flopped.
    2. Wisconsin not seeded at this point? You don't think they are a top 32 team in the country right now?

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  2. Also, Arizona is not a 2 seed either. They have lost 2 games. One at home to colorado( bc the Colorado buzzer beater actually beat the buzzer) and are severely overrated

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  3. Tough to rank Wisconsin in the top 8 because of their terrible non-conference record, and they just lost to Iowa after beating IU.

    As for Arizona, I agree they lost to Colorado but that's not what the committee will see. They will see it as a win and their record is boosted because of it. Can't argue with the facts of their resume at this point either, although I don't think they can stay there. I don't trust them.

    And lastly the IU vs. Butler argument... Butler and IU have 3 "big wins":
    - They have both beaten UNC but Butler did it on a neutral floor while IU did it at home. Advantage Butler.
    - IU beat Georgetown (currently unranked) but Butler beat Gonzaga (Top 10). Big Advantage Butler.
    - They both beat a powerhouse Big Ten team: IU beat Minnesota at home (Top ten), Butler beat IU on a neutral floor (#1). Big advantage Butler again. Plus if comparing head-to-head resumes you must consider the head-to-head matchup too which obviously Butler won.

    I will add this at the end to that argument... IU's resume has a much better chance to improve as they go through the Big Ten season. They can rack up bigger wins, improve their SOS and RPI dramatically, and easily be a one seed come March. Butler can fall much harder if they lose games because the A-10 simply isn't as good. They don't have much opportunity from now on for huge wins (maybe only VCU). So I would be shocked if Butler is higher at the end of the season. But I'm ranking them now so...

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