Stay or Go

Yesterday, Joel Embiid told ESPN that he's not a lock to declare for the draft when the year is done. He is "strongly considering" returning to school for his sophomore season. What is most interesting about this is that ESPN currently projects that he'll be the #1 pick in this summer's draft. At worst, he's a top three pick, so why would he pass that up? It got me thinking about many other underclassman and whether I believe they should stay or go. Here's my thoughts:

NOTE: For the purposes of this blog, I'll focus on freshmen.

Joel Embiid - Go

I mentioned it above, he's a lock to be taken in the Top 3 and is very likely going to be the top selection. He's also the only elite center in the draft so he has no competition at his position. He can continue developing in the NBA, and it's not worth the risk to stay considering there isn't any upside.

Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle - Go

These three are very similar to Embiid. They are guaranteed to be Top 5 selections with the outside chance of going #1, Wiggins and Parker in particular. There is too much risk coming back (injury chance) so they too should take the guaranteed money now.

Aaron Gordon - Too Early to Tell

At times this season I've thought Gordon should stay, but at other times I've thought he should go. The problem is that it's unknown what position he will play in the NBA. Is he an undersized power forward or a small forward that can't shoot. We know he's athletic, versatile, and a winner, but he still needs a position. The injury to his teammate Ashley will allow him to play more at the 4 position. I think this will allow us to judge him differently and more accurately than before playing the 3.

Noah Vonleh - Stay

No, this isn't just selfish thinking as an IU fan. Noah is extremely young, even for being a freshmen (he reclassified). That means he has even more room to grow than others around him. His skillset is also massive, and he's just scratching the surface of his potential in many areas. Tom Crean developed Zeller and Oladipo into Top 4 picks and I think he can do the same with Noah. IU will be better overall next year, and that extra exposure will help. The draft class will also not be as good next year, which means he could become a Top 3 pick if he stays, and would be in the running for #1 (as opposed to late Top Ten now). I'd stay, develop, and get picked higher next year (which means more money).

Jordan Mickey - Too Early to Tell

Most people aren't talking about Mickey (who plays for LSU), but this guy has an NBA body and massive upside. He's played better and better as the year has gone on, and is on the radar for NBA scouts. If LSU continues playing well and makes the tourney, he would have an excellent chance to showcase his skills. If he takes advantage, I'd think about declaring.

Tyler Ennis - Go

Ennis has gone from a guy that wasn't on the 2014 draft radar to a projected lottery pick. I credit that in part to the fact that he plays for #1 rated Syracuse. His upside isn't as high as other players, so I don't think he has much to gain by returning. In fact, if Syracuse isn't as good next year, it could actually hurt his status. Go now.

Zach LaVine - Stay

Similar to Gordon, scouts are unsure about his position. Next year with Anderson gone, he'll have the opportunity to play point guard a lot more than he does currently. That will help his stock. Similar to Vonleh, his upside could take him from a lottery pick this year to a Top 3 pick next year. He's also been struggling more in conference play the past month. These reasons lead me to think he should return.

Chris Walker - Stay

Walker made his debut last night for Florida; looked raw, but athletic, and a little lost. I don't think he'll have enough time to adapt to the college game to truly showcase his talent this season. In fact, he likely won't get enough minutes. Due to that, I'd return for another season, become one of the core guys for Florida, and that will allow him to blossom into a star player and potential Top Ten pick. Now, if he surprises me and dominates the rest of the year or breaks out in the NCAA Tourney, my opinion may change.

James Young - Go

This was a tough decision, but it came down to his shooting ability. Of all the guys on Kentucky, he's proven to be a consistent threat from the perimeter. I think that will only help his status come draft day. Teams always need wings that can score it and shoot it from deep. The fact that he's young and lefty help too.

Andrew and Aaron Harrison - Stay

The Harrison twins haven't shined the way Kentucky guards have in the past. They also haven't adapted that quickly to the college game. They show flashes, but their inconsistency has hurt their draft stock. Coming into the season, they were projected lottery picks. Now many consider them borderline first rounders if that. By returning, they could benefit from further development, help lead a dominant Kentucky team to a potential championship, and earn back their lottery pick status.

Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee - Stay

Dakari has been rising for sure recently, but neither has been given the consistent playing time they need to truly showcase what they can do. Next year, with increased development and playing time, they could potentially star. And if the Harrison's also return, this Kentucky team could be scary good.

Jabari Bird - Stay

Bird has been solid, but he doesn't get enough exposure nor is he doing anything to make us want to watch him. Since next year's draft will be a little less crowded, he could benefit from returning.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - Too Early to Tell

His role with Arizona has been increasing, which has helped his stock, but with Ashley's injury it will increase it dramatically. If he seizes the opportunity, I think he could be a lottery pick this summer. If he struggles or plays average, it may be better to wait.

Wayne Selden - Go

His emergence over the last 5 weeks or so has shown how good he can be. The success of Kansas as a whole has helped too, but he's performed (at times) as well as Wiggins and Embiid. He's not talked about as much as those two, but I think he could be a lottery pick also. That means he should go.

Every other freshmen in the country should stay at least another season. Keep an eye on the development though of Nigel Williams-Goss, Troy Williams, Sindarius Thornwell, Kasey Hill, Austin Nichols, Isaiah Hicks, Zak Irvin, Kuran Iverson, Jarell Martin, and Derrick Walton. These guys could all emerge next year as first round picks if the right development takes place.

By: The Sports Guys