Friday, February 28, 2014

The Sports Guys 2014 NFL Mock Draft 2


Last month after the Super Bowl, we (Greg and Andrew) collaborated on our first official mock for the 2014 NFL Draft. Today, we’ll give you our second one. This one is post-combine, which gives us a deeper view of each player and it allowed us to listen to comments made by various GM’s. We also are switching the spots we are drafting… Andrew will pick the odd-numbered picks this time, and Greg the evens. Enjoy!

1. Houston Texans select: Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
Previously: Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)

The combine confirmed something we already knew: Clowney is an absolute beast. His 40 time was faster than most wide receivers! And he definitely proved he can chase down any QB, as his time was faster than elite QB playmakers like Kaepernick, Wilson, and Cam. And while Houston needs a QB, there aren’t any sure things this season. Clowney is much safer and is hands down the best player in the class. I think they take Clowney, and look to a veteran or lower pick to address QB. There’s always next year too (Mariotta). Plus, teams would be terrified of a Clowney/Watt defensive line (as a Bears fan, I’m already jealous thinking about it).

2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) select: Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn)
Previously (by Atlanta via trade): Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)

Robinson was one of the most impressive players at the combine. His combination of size, speed, and strength is very rare at an offensive line position. According to many of the experts, his tape is very good and when combined with his measurables, he’s a top 3 pick in this draft. Whoever the QB of the future is for the Rams, they will need some protection, and Robinson can provide that for many years.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars select: Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
Previously: Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)

As much as I’d hesitate drafting a QB really high in this year’s draft, Jacksonville needs one SO badly. In this mock, Jacksonville would have their choice of any QB, and I think they’d go with Teddy. He’s the safest choice, and most thought he’d be selected #1 throughout most of the college season. He was given a lot of freedom in college and proved he is capable of reading defenses and running a pro offense. This would effectively end the Gabbert experiment, and Chad Henne can go back to being a backup.

4. Cleveland Browns select: Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Previously: Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)

There is some pretty good QB depth in this class, and while I don’t think any of them are franchise QB’s, they won’t need to be with Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Sammy Watkins as targets. If they use their picks wisely, they can upgrade the WR, RB, and QB positions in this draft. Watkins is a good playmaker in this draft, and compliments their other playmakers well.

5. Oakland Raiders select: Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)
Previously: Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)

In this position, Oakland would clearly look to upgrade their QB situation. They’d choose here between Bortles and Manziel. I think Bortles is the guy, as he was impressive during positional drills at the combine, and his measurements are much better for a QB longterm. Manziel may offer a tad more upside, but is also MUCH riskier. I don’t think the Raiders would want to take a risk like that after the JaMarcus Russell flop, and they still have Terrelle Pryor on the roster too, who is similar to Johnny Football in a lot of ways.

6. Minnesota Vikings (from Atlanta via trade): Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)
Previously (by St. Louis via trade): Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn)

Since the Vikings have a new coach now in Mike Zimmer, I think they make this move to secure Johnny Football. Most new coaches like to have a pick of “their QB” who they either draft or bring in via free agency. I think Zimmer’s X’s and O’s will help Minny’s defense from a schematic standpoint and he will want Manziel to come in and provide some complementary offensive firepower to the existing power running game. He will provide some excitement for a fan base who really needs it.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select: Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo)
Previously: Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo)

With the last of the “Big 3 QB’s” gone a pick ahead of them, Tampa Bay will address their defense, which makes sense with Lovie Smith coaching there now. Mack tore up the combine and looks like a sure thing in this draft. Mack would likely become an anchor on defense for years from the linebacker position. He’s in the Top 4 on my ‘Big Board’, so this would be great value.

8. Atlanta Falcons (from Minnesota via trade) select: Jake Matthews (OT, Texas A&M)
Previously (by Minnesota): C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)

Todd McShay really thinks that the Falcons are in a good position at #6 to draft one of three players (Khalil Mack, Jadaveon Clowney, or Greg Robinson) and that any of the three would be good to great fits on their team. The possibility of trading up for Clowney or Robinson is the only one that I think makes any sense here. If Clowney and Robinson are off the board at #6, which they are here, I don’t think Mack is a fit for their scheme at all. Mack projects as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, and though I think he probably could fit as a DE in a 4-3 or an OLB in a 4-3, that’s not his best position. This is why I had Atlanta trade out of that pick and drop down slightly. They still can draft a player that fits a position of need, and not reach in this position, which is why I have them drafting Jake Matthews. He can be a solid player, and is extremely similar to Luke Joeckel of last year’s draft. He should immediately improve their offensive line and pass protection for Matt Ryan.

9. Buffalo Bills select: Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan)
Previously: Jake Matthews (OT, Texas A&M)

The Bills desperately need better line play, especially after the injuries Manuel had last year. Lewan would give them improved pass protection, along with a boost in the run game. If they don’t address the offensive line with this pick, then they should take a WR or TE. It is essential they get Manuel some help one way or another.

10. Detroit Lions select: Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
Previously: Marqise Lee (WR, USC)

Matthew Stafford really likes to throw to tall receivers. He’s already got arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Calvin Johnson to throw to, and having two receivers who are big, physical, can run well, and help in run blocking will be a boost to the entire team.  Jim Caldwell is a more conservative coach than Jim Schwartz, so he may go with defense here, but I think Evans would be a great choice for the Lions.

11. Tennessee Titans select: Anthony Barr (OLB, Buffalo)
Previously: Anthony Barr (OLB, Buffalo)

I’m keeping this selection the same as last draft. Barr will fit in well with the Titans, and he is a big time prospect, once considered among the top 3 in the class. They could also use a boost on offense, but that will be done with other picks and/or via free agency.

12. New York Giants select: Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
Previously: Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan)

The Giants need some help in the passing game. Hakeem Nicks was a shadow of his former self, the offensive line struggled to run the ball, and Victor Cruz has eaten up a lot of salary cap money. Eli Manning threw a career high in interceptions last season and really needs another target to throw to. Ebron ran a 4.60 40 at the combine, which is excellent for a TE his size (6’4” and 250 lbs). He has good sized hands, and while he can drop the ball at times, he will be a good pass catcher for Eli and help the offense to produce better results.

13. St. Louis Rams select: Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Previously: Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State)

The Rams have a defense that is pretty good and getting better. This first round must be about addressing the offense. At #2, they upgraded the offensive line with Greg Robinson. With this pick, they give Bradford another weapon in the passing game. Lee is a great athlete, capable of making plays all over the field for St. Louis, and can be an every down guy unlike Tavon Austin, whom they selected last year.

14. Chicago Bears select: Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
Previously: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama)

Donald was arguably the most impressive defensive player at the combine. At 6’1 and 285 pounds, he ran a 4.68 40 (only .15 seconds behind Clowney), and did 35 reps at 225 pounds (14 more than Clowney). His tape was disruptive, he got in and out of his stance and cut quickly during the drills, and he looked to be one of the more powerful players at the combine when you watched. He fits a 4-3 defensive scheme perfectly and could also be a 3-4 DE similar to Sheldon Richardson. He’s a little shorter and slighter than Richardson, but I think the comparison is accurate.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers select: Louis Nix III (DT, Notre Dame)
Previously: Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)

Obviously, Nix would be a great fit for Pittsburgh as a big body right in the middle of the defensive line. They could use an upgrade there, as they aren’t as prolific on that side of the ball as they were a few years ago. I think it’s time they build up the defense once again, and Nix is a great start.

16. Baltimore Ravens select: Zach Martin (OT, Notre Dame)
Previously: Cyrus Kouandjio (OT, Alabama)

Martin had a solid combine, and along with his Senior Bowl performance, he has steadily climbed the rankings at the offensive line position. The Ravens have several needs at that position and Martin could fill several of them with his versatility. He’s underrated as a run blocker and does well even against longer armed defensive lineman.

17. Dallas Cowboys select: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama)
Previously: Timmy Jernigan (DT, Florida State)

The Cowboys were terrible last year on defense, and have a big need at safety. Clinton-Dix got the edge here over Pryor due to his coverage skills. Specifically, Clinton-Dix has the most range of any safety in the draft, and that could go a long way for a defense with a lot of holes. He can’t fill all of them, but he’d help right away in his first season.

18. New York Jets select: C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Previously: Eric Ebron (TE, UNC)

While Mosley projects as a 4-3 linebacker, he also would be able to play well inside in a 3-4. His intelligence, instincts, and his athleticism are a good fit at the LB position to come in and learn to make the calls in Rex Ryan’s defense. The Jets could also use a WR, but the WR class is so deep this year they can get solid value in the 2nd and 3rd round for that. I think the defense started to slip a little bit last year and they need to get younger... Mosley helps them get better AND get younger.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami via trade) select: Timmy Jernigan (DT, Florida State)
Previously (by Miami): Zack Martin (OT, Notre Dame)

Philadelphia struggled some against the run last year on defense and they are a little bit undermanned on the interior of their line. They have a good linebacking corps, but adding a solid defensive lineman would only increase the effectiveness of that linebacking corps. Jernigan has been the top DL on most boards up to this point, but his uninspiring performance at the combine has caused him to drop a little bit. Getting him at this point in the draft is excellent value, and fits a need.

20. Arizona Cardinals select: Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State)
Previously (by Denver via trade): Darqueze Dennard (CB, MSU)

Patrick Peterson is a top 3 CB in the league already. Gilbert has the size and the ball skills to be a great compliment on the other side and give the Cardinals a really solid starting CB tandem for the next 6 or 7 years. He doesn’t need to contribute in the kick return game, but he has the skills to do so if necessary. He was productive as a corner in a college conference with a lot of spread offenses, and will do very well in the schemes that are run on this defense.

21. Green Bay Packers select: Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville)
Previously: Louis Nix III (DT, Notre Dame)

One of the standouts at the combine was Pryor. He was already known as a big hitting safety, but he showed that he possesses top end speed as well as he matched Clinton-Dix with his 40 time. They are neck and neck in my player rankings now, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Pryor ended up becoming a massive star at the safety position. Safety is also a big position of need for Green Bay, so this works in every way.

22. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Philadelphia via trade) select: Darqueze Dennard (CB, MSU)
Previously (by Philadelphia): Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame)

Denver obviously doesn’t have too many needs, but they must improve their secondary to get back to the Super Bowl and achieve better results there. If Dennard falls into the 20’s, I’d look for Denver to trade up to secure him. Justin Gilbert would make this even more of a no-brainer. Dennard though would give them a quality corner that could contribute immediately.

23. Kansas City Chiefs select: Brandin Cooks (WR, Oregon State)
Previously: Loucheiz Purifoy (CB, Florida)

The Chiefs had a dominant defense in 2013, but the offense could be stagnant, especially the passing game. I think KC will end up taking the best available WR with this pick. Brandin Cooks tore up the combine with his elite speed (fastest 40 time) and ability to separate from defenders. I think he now edges out Odell Beckham Jr. as the fourth best WR. He could give the Chiefs some much needed explosiveness, and could open up things for Bowe in the middle of the field.

24. Cincinnati Bengals select: Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri)
Previously: Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri)

I did not change this pick because I think Ealy and Dee Ford are the second and third best DE’s in this draft. Plus, even though CB is a position of need for them, I’m not sure Lamarcus Joyner (or another at this spot) is the type of corner they are looking for. I think Ealy will be a solid pick and could prevent the Bengals from having to spend big on Michael Johnson in free agency.

25. San Diego Chargers select: Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Previously: Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)

There is no question that San Diego needs to bring in at least one quality CB. While there are plenty of decent options available here, Roby brings great speed and strength (which he showed at the combine) that makes me believe he’ll succeed at the NFL level. He’s a player on the rise now, and he proved this week he’s worth a first round pick. I also like Jason Verrett as a CB.

26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis) select: Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State)
Previously: Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State)

The Browns nabbed a WR with their first pick, and could go with another one here, or a QB. However, they have so many picks in this draft that I think with the recent release of D’Qwell Jackson at the linebacker position, they now need to fill that up. Shazier is a good cover linebacker who plays the run well and could replace Jackson on the roster. I think they go RB and QB in some order with their picks in the second round.

27. New Orleans Saints select: Morgan Moses (OT, Virginia)
Previously: Vic Beasley (OLB, Clemson)

The Saints may decide to take a defensive guy here if they love a guy that’s available, but they also have a big need at tackle. Moses played left tackle this past season, but was a right tackle before that. I think this shows how versatile and athletic he is. He also held his own at the combine and did well at the Senior Bowl. There is plenty of depth in this draft, so the defense can be addressed later. Sidenote: if they fail to re-sign Jimmy Graham, look for Jace Amaro to be selected here.

28. Carolina Panthers select: Allen Robinson (WR, Penn State)
Previously: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LSU)

Personally, I like Beckham Jr. more, but that’s just because I have a bias against Penn State after the Sandusky/Paterno scandal. Robinson has good size, a good frame, decent speed and athleticism, and is an excellent route runner. He will be an upgrade over Brandon LaFell immediately, and while he doesn’t possess the same skill set that Steve Smith has, he could be a receiver very similar to Julio Jones. The college tape looks very similar to me.

29. New England Patriots select: Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)
Previously (by Cleveland via trade): Carlos Hyde (RB, Ohio State)

This was a no-brainer selection for me. We all know that last year they lost their “second tight end” in Aaron Hernandez with legal issues. The offense struggled without him, plus Gronk was also injured a lot. Amaro would fill the void left by Hernandez, and would give them some relief if Gronk remains beat up. The Patriots would love for Jace to fall to them here.

30. San Francisco 49ers select: Odell Beckham, Jr.  (WR, LSU)
Previously: Davante Adams (WR, Fresno State)
Beckham Jr. is a good fit here. Regardless of if the 49ers are able to re-sign Anquan Boldin or not, Beckham Jr. has the size, speed, and quickness to have an instant impact here. He will help the passing game, and is an underrated blocker as well.

31. Miami Dolphins (from Denver via trade) select: Cyrus Kouandjio (OT, Alabama)
Previously (by Arizona via trade): Ra’Shede Hagemon (DT, Minnesota)

The Dolphins desperately need help at the tackle positions. They may try to address one spot in free agency, but they offensive line still needs an overhaul. The off-the-field issues with the line have been well documented, but on the field they gave up a team record 58 sacks and were near the bottom of the league in rushing as well. Miami has traded down twice in this mock because there wasn’t great value available at their drafting spots for an OT. This allowed them to acquire more picks which they can use to address other areas of need (or trade back up later in the draft if they love a player). In fact, trading down again here wouldn’t be off the table. But if the knee issues didn’t take Kouandjio off the Miami draft board, he could really help them out. He’s extremely gifted for a guy his size and was once considered a Top Ten pick. I know the combine hurt his value, but there is still plenty of time to justify this selection, especially for a team in desperate need of OT help.

32. Seattle Seahawks select: Trent Murphy (DE, Stanford)
Previously: Morgan Moses (OT, Virginia)

Murphy is a decent athlete who has good instincts and a solid motor. He reminds me a lot of Ryan Kerrigan when he came out of college a few years ago. He doesn’t have top end athleticism but he would be an excellent fit here in an environment that fosters competition. He can be a solid contributor on this defense.

As more time passes, we’ll do this again. But enjoy the offseason for now, especially free agency when it really begins!

By: The Sports Guys

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