It’s draft day… finally… and today will put an end to all speculation and we will actually know where each prospect will officially be headed. Trade rumors will either disappear or occur, fans will either rejoice or cry, and Kiper/McShay will no longer star on Sportscenter. This mock is not about what I think each team should do, but what I actually expect to happen. Today, I’ll do a first round mock only. Tomorrow (after we know what happened in the first round), I’ll post a mock draft of the second and third rounds. For those of you that want rounds 4-7, sorry! So here is my final first round mock of 2017:
The Sports Guys FINAL 2017 NFL Mock Draft
First Round:
1. Cleveland Browns select: Myles Garrett (DE, Texas A&M)
1st, 2nd, and 3rd Mock: Myles Garrett (DE, Texas A&M)
I’ve stayed true to this pick since the beginning. He’s the best prospect on basically everyone’s board, including Cleveland’s. I know they want a quarterback also, but I think they will stick with Garrett here and use their next pick (#12) to trade up and grab the one they want (Trubisky). More on that in a bit...
2. San Francisco 49ers select: Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
3rd Mock: Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
2nd Mock: DeShone Kizer (QB, Notre Dame)
1st Mock: Jonathan Allen (DL, Alabama)
This pick is anyone’s guess as the organization has been tight-lipped on the situation. Despite being active in free agency, this is still a team with a lot of holes that’s best option is trading down. While there are a couple teams thinking about moving up, they won’t move up this high. So San Francisco will be stuck making this pick and will take Adams, who has the highest floor of anyone in the draft and fills a big need. GM John Lynch knows the importance of the position.
3. Chicago Bears select: Marshon Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
3rd Mock: Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
2nd Mock: Jonathan Allen (DL, Alabama)
1st Mock: Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
I think their hope is to trade down or draft Jamal Adams if they have to stay put. But just like the 49ers, I don’t think any team will trade up quite this high. Obviously I had San Francisco drafting Adams so that’s not an option here either. I also don’t think the team values any QB’s enough to take them here either. So what will they do? The three other players I’ve heard them connected to are Thomas, Allen, and Lattimore. Based on what they’ve said about getting better in the secondary, Lattimore seems to be the most likely selection, with Allen a close second.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars select: Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
3rd Mock: Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
2nd Mock: Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
1st Mock: Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
While I personally don’t like this pick, it seems like the most likely selection for Jacksonville. They have stated they want to getter better offensively and they seem to have Fournette rated higher than any other offensive player. Unless they internally decide someone else “fits” better, I expect the first RB to come off the board at the same spot as last year (Elliott to Cowboys at #4).
5. Cleveland Browns (via trade with Tennessee from Los Angeles) select: Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
1st, 2nd, and 3rd Mock: Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)
Recent buzz around Tennessee is that they are very open to moving down, even actively trying to trade back in this draft. One source said it’s 50/50 that they stay put at #’s 5 and 18. As I mentioned at #1, Cleveland is a team that will be trying to trade into the Top 10 from #12 to take Trubisky. Plus, these teams swapped picks in last year’s first round so they clearly know how to work together. In this scenario, Cleveland would trade #12 and #33 to get this pick in order to select the quarterback of their future, and the consensus top QB in this draft. Seems like a win/win.
6. Arizona Cardinals (via trade with New York) select: Pat Mahomes (QB, Texas Tech)
2nd and 3rd Mock: Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
1st Mock: DeShone Kizer (QB, Notre Dame)
This is my first “bold prediction” and one I’m sure I’ll get wrong... The Jets seem to be open to the idea of trading back, and it sounds like the Cardinals want Mahomes pretty badly. Based on how the first round has played out, Arizona may panic a little after the Cleveland trade, especially since Mahomes has been on fire recently in terms of his draft stock. This would cost Arizona their second round pick, but in order to properly prep for Palmer’s soon-to-be retirement, they may feel like that’s worth it.
7. Los Angeles Chargers select: Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
3rd Mock: Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
2nd Mock: Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
1st Mock: Cam Robinson (OT, Alabama)
If the Jets would have taken Hooker instead of making their trade, this pick would have been difficult to make. Now it becomes extremely easy. Hooker is one of their top targets and he is a very likely choice by them no matter what.
8. Carolina Panthers select: Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)
3rd Mock: Marshon Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
1st and 2nd Mock: Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
McCaffrey didn’t make the first round of any of my mocks so far, but his stock is on fire and it is possible for him to land in the Top Ten. Teams are falling in love with his change in direction ability and his pass catching skills. Carolina looks to be locked into taking a running back: Fournette or McCaffrey. In this case, only one is available so he is the pick.
9. Cincinnati Bengals select: Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
3rd Mock: Jonathan Allen (DL, Alabama)
1st and 2nd Mock: Marshon Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
Two Stanford products in a row now with Thomas going to the Bengals. This is great value as Thomas is in the top three of my board. Cincy seems to like a lot of players in the front seven. Jonathan Allen is a real possibility, but Thomas gives them more pass rush upside. So the best available player approach wins out and Thomas is the choice.
10. Buffalo Bills select: Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson)
2nd and 3rd Mock: Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)
1st Mock: Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
To me, it’s so clear they should draft a wide receiver. But that’s not how they see it. It sounds as if they are looking at quarterbacks, tight ends, and defensive backs. This is a team that may look to make some trades also, but in this scenario I don’t see that happening. They seem to be in love with Watson, as they’ve met with him at least three times in some capacity. So even though I disagree with the pick, I think he’s got a shot to go here.
11. New Orleans Saints select: Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
3rd Mock: Haason Reddick (OLB, Temple)
2nd Mock: Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
1st Mock: Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
It seems now that the Malcolm Butler trade will not happen. That makes corner a big need. Humphrey is well-liked in the NFL community and could go higher than many mock drafts have him going. While I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints go with a player in the front seven, Humphrey is also a very likely selection. I’m still bullish on the possibility of Reddick here though. Consider them 1A and 1B.
12. Tennessee Titans (via trade with Cleveland from Philadelphia) select: Jonathan Allen (DL, Alabama)
2nd and 3rd Mock: Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson)
1st Mock: Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
With Tennessee trading back and picking up an extra pick, the team has some flexibility. I know they want to add an elite corner and also want to add weapons for Mariota (TE/WR). But with picks at #18 and #33 now, it would be difficult to pass on Allen. His value at this stage in the draft would be great, and they have scouted him extensively throughout the draft process. So despite the fact that Allen doesn’t fill either of their top needs, they’d be happy getting him.
13. New York Jets (via trade with Arizona) select: O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
3rd Mock: Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
2nd Mock: Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
1st Mock: Tim Williams (OLB, Alabama)
Howard is in play with their pick at #6, so he is a no brainer at #13 after they traded back. He fills one of their top needs and most consider him a top ten talent. He could be long gone before this, but due to trades and such, he fell.
14. Washington Redskins (via trade with Philadelphia from Minnesota) select: Haason Reddick (OLB, Temple)
3rd Mock: Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
1st and 2nd Mock: Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida St.)
The Redskins love Reddick and rumors state they’d be willing to trade up for him (especially since the Colts could be interested). Since there are plenty of solid options for Philly here, I think they’d gladly move back a few spots and pick up an extra mid-round pick. Reddick would be a dynamic and versatile player for the ‘Skins.
15. Indianapolis Colts select: Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
3rd Mock: Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
2nd Mock: Ryan Ramczyk (OT, Wisconsin)
1st Mock: Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
Although the Colts may target an edge rusher here, Foster will be a tempting option if he indeed is available. He has some red flags outside of football, but as a player he’s a clear top ten player, arguably a top five player. I doubt the Colts could pass him up. He’d be a leader for that defense for years to come, something they’ve lacked in recent years.
16. Baltimore Ravens select: Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)
3rd Mock: O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
1st and 2nd Mock: Takkarist McKinley (OLB, UCLA)
I’ve surprised myself so far with this mock in one major way: to this point no wide receivers have been selected. But that’s what a lot of teams are saying will happen. It did last year as well (#15 was the first). The Ravens current wide receiver corps is ugly. Smith is retired, Aiken is now with the Colts, Wallace is in his 30’s, and Perriman has been massively disappointing. The Ravens have had private workouts with Williams, Davis, and Ross, the top 3 wide receiver prospects. My guess is that they will likely pick one tonight, and Williams is my top guy.
17. Philadelphia Eagles (via trade with Washington) select: Kevin King (CB, Washington)
3rd Mock: Malik McDowell (DT, Michigan State)
2nd Mock: Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
1st Mock: John Ross (WR, Washington)
This could totally be a pass rusher (namely Derek Barnett) but most execs believe the Eagles will take a corner. If teams continue getting more info about Gareon Conley and feel good about him by tonight, he could definitely go in this range. I’m avoiding him in this mock altogether though. King then is the best available corner and likely selection in this spot. He’s got nice size and speed, and has experience at safety and on special teams. I’ve been told the Eagles may consider a wide receiver early, but to me that doesn’t make sense after their free agent signings and with the holes they have on defense.
18. Tennessee Titans select: Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)
3rd Mock: Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
2nd Mock: Teez Tabor (CB, Florida)
1st Mock: Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
Their gamble of passing on a wide receiver earlier paid off, as Davis falls to them here. He has #1 receiver potential on a team that needs a top option for their young QB. The other top receiver available is John Ross who is another legit possibility. If they don’t go with this position, look for a cornerback or tight end.
19. Miami Dolphins (via trade with Tampa Bay) select: Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
3rd Mock: Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State)
2nd Mock: John Ross (WR, Washington)
1st Mock: Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
Tampa Bay has been shopping this pick hard, and Miami may bite if Barnett starts to fall. The Dolphins could use another elite edge rusher, and they currently covet Barnett and Harris. Moving up a few spots would cost them a couple 5th rounders most likely (they have three), but he could become a force getting after the passer. Miami is also very interested in Lamp, as they have a need at guard.
20. Denver Broncos select: Cam Robinson (OT, Alabama)
3rd Mock: David Njoku (TE, Miami)
2nd Mock: Cam Robinson (OT, Alabama)
1st Mock: Malik McDowell (DT, Michigan State)
The Broncos are likely going with an offensive tackle in the first round, and the three top options are available. Robinson, Bolles, and Ramczyk were all brought in for private workouts by the team, so whoever is highest on their board will be the pick. Who is highest for Denver is a mystery, but Robinson has the most upside in my opinion. So that’s my educated guess.
21. Detroit Lions select: David Njoku (TE, Miami)
3rd Mock: Taco Charlton (DE, Michigan)
2nd Mock: Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
1st Mock: Caleb Brantley (DT, Florida)
I don’t like this pick for Detroit, but there are a lot of rumblings about Detroit’s real interest in upgrading at tight end very early in this draft. They also want to upgrade at other offensive spots, such as running back and wide receiver. I think defense should be a major focus also, but my opinion seems to differ from the news coming from their camp. They love Njoku by the way.
22. Seattle Seahawks (via trade with Tampa Bay via trade with Miami) select: Garett Bolles (OT, Utah)
3rd Mock: Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
2nd Mock: O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
1st Mock: Charles Harris (DE, Missouri)
Tampa Bay has said they’d be comfortable moving down, even to the second round. Another few spots gets them another mid-round pick. Seattle really wants a quality tackle and may want to jump the Giants in order to nab Bolles (who they really like). The funny thing is, I could also see them trading back and being content with the third tackle, whoever it is that falls.
23. New York Giants select: Ryan Ramczyk (OT, Wisconsin)
2nd Mock: Taco Charlton (DE, Michigan)
1st and 3rd Mock: Ryan Ramczyk (OT, Wisconsin)
The Giants seem to be targeting an offensive tackle or tight end. In my view, there are five first round talents at those positions. Four are gone already (two of each). That leaves Ramczyk, whom the team has met with twice already. Sometimes, drafting is easy.
24. Oakland Raiders select: Jarrad Davis (LB, Florida)
2nd Mock: Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
1st and 3rd Mock: Teez Tabor (CB, Florida)
One of the big needs for Oakland is linebacker, and Davis would be a home run for them. He’s very high on their board and seems to be on their wish list. I like this pick for them, despite the holes at various other spots.
25. Houston Texans select: Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
3rd Mock: Patrick Mahomes II (QB, Texas Tech)
2nd Mock: Garett Bolles (OT, Utah)
1st Mock: O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
This is a possible quarterback destination, but they won’t force it. They didn’t meet with Kizer, who is the top QB available, so they may address another need in this spot. I considered Jackson and Lamp, as they hosted both for private workouts. Jackson wins out since they lost their top CB in free agency and he could also help on special teams.
26. Atlanta Falcons (via trade with Tampa Bay via trade with Seattle) select: Charles Harris (DE, Missouri)
3rd Mock: Garett Bolles (OT, Utah)
2nd Mock: Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
1st Mock: D’Onta Foreman (RB, Texas)
Tampa Bay moves down again? Yes. As I already said, they’d be willing to move down to the second round as they like a lot of prospects there. There is a lot of speculation that Atlanta has talked to Seattle already about a potential trade into this spot at #26. I’m sure they’d have similar success if Tampa Bay was there. That rumor stated that the Falcons will be targeting a pass rusher. Harris was one of the names mentioned which is why he’s the pick I made. I know they also like OG Forrest Lamp, so that could alter these plans.
27. Kansas City Chiefs select: DeShone Kizer (QB, Notre Dame)
3rd Mock: Takkarist McKinley (OLB, UCLA)
2nd Mock: Malik McDowell (DT, Michigan State)
1st Mock: Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
The Chiefs have other needs, but KC scouts have said they expect the team to take a quarterback in one of the first two rounds. Kizer is one of the top signal callers in the draft, and the last elite prospect in my opinion. I view this as a very realistic option.
28. Dallas Cowboys select: Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
2nd Mock: Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
1st and 3rd Mock: Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
Getting players in the secondary is a must as they got annihilated in free agency there. I know they like other corners, such as Tankersley, but White is the best corner available, unless the Conley situation is cleared up by tonight. Defensive end is another real option though, and I know the team really likes “the other” Watt.
29. Green Bay Packers select: T.J. Watt (LB, Wisconsin)
3rd Mock: Forrest Lamp (G, Western Kentucky)
2nd Mock: Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
1st Mock: Jarrad Davis (LB, Florida)
This is another Forrest Lamp destination, but the Packers stated they want defense early and often. They really like Watt, so don’t be surprised by this pick. He reminds me a lot of Clay Matthews, and obviously that’s worked out well for Green Bay. Running back is another need position for Green Bay too.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers select: Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
2nd and 3rd Mock: Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
1st Mock: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, USC)
While I personally think other needs are greater, the team desires a top safety, and they really like Peppers. His versatility is attractive to them, and I can’t argue with the value at this spot. Linebacker and even quarterback are other positions they may choose to address.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via trade with Atlanta) select: Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State)
2nd and 3rd Mock: Charles Harris (DE, Missouri)
1st Mock: Carl Lawson (DE, Auburn)
Finally… The Bucs make a pick. They love Cook, and they should as he is my highest rated running back. I know there are off-the-field issues that may push him to the second round, but the Bucs have traded down enough to take the risk here. Lamp is another option, but Cook gives them a capable backfield partner for Winston, who is also a former Seminole.
32. New Orleans Saints (from New England) select: Taco Charlton (DE, Michigan)
3rd Mock: Fabian Moreau (CB, UCLA)
2nd Mock: Tim Williams (OLB, Alabama)
1st Mock: Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)
With a corner at #11, the Saints may go with a front seven player here, likely an edge rusher. They’ve met with Charlton a couple of times, including having him in for a private workout. He seems to fit them well and would be a great addition to their defense. It wouldn’t surprise me if they went with another player in the secondary though, such as a safety or a corner that falls.
NOTE: Forrest Lamp and John Ross are likely first round picks. My mock just didn’t go that way. Clearly I won’t get everything (or anything?) right tonight so they both could clearly become selections in the real thing. Looking back I see them fitting in at a number of different spots. As I stated at #17, the Gareon Conley situation is worth paying attention to. He was a sure first rounder before the rape accusations. As evidence emerges (a video has this morning), teams could calm down and end up taking him still in the first round. It didn’t happen with Collins a couple years ago, but Tunsil last year fell but stayed in the first round. We’ll see.
That’s all for today... Enjoy watching the draft. Once we see how it plays out tonight, I’ll preview Day 2 tomorrow with another mock that predicts the second and third rounds. Hope you’re happy with how your team does too!
By: The Sports Guys
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