Congratulations
to the North Carolina Tarheels who won their 6th National Title in
school history. Roy Williams picks up his third title respectively. Many are
calling this redemption after their heartbreak a year ago in the championship
game, but Kris Jenkins was on their side this time (game winner last year
against them, was behind their bench in a UNC shirt tonight). Joel Berry was a
fitting MVP as well and they deserved the win in what was a very close game.
Congrats to Gonzaga on a great season however.
March
Madness held up to its own lofty standards and delivered an epic tourney. While
the first couple days lacked the typical amount of drama and upsets, there was
a flurry of such things from then on out. The regular season and conference
tourneys were just as great. From early season battles to conference rivalry
games, college basketball treated its fans to greatness often. I will
personally remember opening night, where my beloved Hoosiers took out Kansas in
overtime in one of the year’s best games.
But
this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early, which
means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be
NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out,
recruiting and signings (some very big names are still unsigned), and even
injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first
official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:
Really Early 2017-18 College Basketball Top 25
NOTE:
Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2016-17 record
in the second parenthesis.
1. (5) Kentucky Wildcats
(32-6)
This
is a team likely losing at least six key players. Three seniors actually, plus
the freshmen trio of Fox, Monk, and Adebayo. Briscoe is another possibility,
although he’s only a second rounder at best so he may return. But, they happen
to have the best recruiting class in the country (again), and may still be
adding to it. They already have five 5-star players, and another Top-35 player
to boot. Like I said, they may not be done as some of the top uncommitted
players are still considering the Wildcats also. Talented returners include Humphries,
Gabriel, Briscoe (maybe), and Killeya-Jones. So while the turnover is massive,
the results will be the same.
2. (9) Oregon Ducks (33-6)
The
Ducks will be on a mission next year to prove its run in the NCAA Tournament
was no fluke. Of course, they will have to await NBA decisions from Brooks,
Dorsey, and Bell. This ranking reflects all of them returning, hungry to put
the devastating loss to UNC behind them. That would mean they only lose Ennis
and Boucher. They’ve proven in March that they can win without Boucher, and
their incoming players will do more than enough to cover Ennis. The class is
led by 5-star wing Troy Brown Jr. They will add two 4-star prospects also, and
Altman isn’t done recruiting. This ranking plummets if those players leave early
though.
3. (3) Kansas Jayhawks
(31-5)
In
my estimation, Kansas is once again the clear favorite in the Big 12. They will
also be a Final Four contender, if they can finally figure out how to get past
the Elite 8… As always, the Jayhawks will lose some key pieces. Mason, Lucas,
and surely Jackson are gone, all of which played pivotal roles this past
season. However, Graham, Vick, Mykhailiuk, Bragg, and Azubuike (injured this
year) should all be back to form a great core. Add in some great newcomers, including
transfer Malik Newman and 5-star big man Billy Preston, and this team will be
stocked full of talent again.
4. (20) Florida Gators
(27-9)
Florida
made a shocking push to the Elite 8 and nearly made the Final 4 over the last
couple of weeks. Next season, that will be the expectation. Role players Hill,
Barry, and Leon depart, but everyone else returns (although Robinson is
“testing the waters”). That includes their stars Chiozza, Allen, Robinson, and
Egbunu. They add a top 10 recruiting class as well, thanks to four really good
players. In addition to that, Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson is eligible
and Dontay Bassett will return after missing all year with an injury. Looks
like Kentucky might have some real competition this year at the top of the SEC.
5. (4) Arizona Wildcats
(32-5)
Arizona
is the west coast version of Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas. At the end of the
season, there are a lot of unknowns due to the NBA talent on the roster that
could leave early. But there is also plenty of talent ready to take the place
of whoever departs. This team only had one senior, but they will await
decisions from Markkanen, Trier, Simmons, and Alkins (Note: Markkanen already
announced he’s leaving). Whoever returns will join Jackson-Cartwright, Ristic,
and Comanche, along with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. The
jewel is Scout’s #1 overall player DeAndre Ayton.
6. (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (37-2)
While
the Bulldogs will await possible NBA decisions, the only definite losses will
be seniors Jordan Mathews and Przemek Karnowski. While those hurt, plenty of
talent could return. This ranking assumes they will. Williams-Goss and Collins
headline the group, but don’t forget Melson, Perkins, and Williams. Mark Few
will have plenty of his young guys developed more, and surely some decent
additions. Tillie is a young man to watch in particular, who was seldom used
this season but is a very talented big man from France and he played well in
the Championship Game tonight.
7. (13) West Virginia
Mountaineers (28-9)
While
“Press Virginia” does lose a few seniors, they will be back among the toughest
opponents in basketball. Since Bob Huggins plays 10+ guys a night, there is
plenty of talent left to contend for a Big 12 title. The returnees are
highlighted by Jevon Carter (their best player) and Daxter Miles Jr. That’s
arguably the best backcourt in the conference. Along with plenty of frontcourt
depth, there are a few recruits who will see the floor quickly. Like always,
nobody will enjoy playing these guys next year.
8. (NR) USC Trojans (26-10)
The
Trojans will be extremely talented next season. Every starter and 8 of the top
9 players return from a team that won two games (nearly three) in the NCAA
Tourney. They are also adding three freshmen that should all contribute, plus
Duke transfer Derryck Thornton Jr., who could turn into a starter himself. On
paper, they are a real contender in the Pac-12, assuming Metu returns for his
junior season.
9. (19) Wichita State
Shockers (31-5)
The
Shockers could be moving to a new conference, and I’m sure the Missouri Valley
would be happy about it. This team returns every single player of relevance,
and more importantly Gregg Marshall is still their coach. So the team that won
30+ games and nearly knocked off Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament will be utterly
dangerous next year. I love Shamet and Morris in particular, as they are so
unique. But Brown, McDuffie, and Frankamp complete a dynamite starting lineup.
10. (6) North Carolina
Tarheels (33-7)
A
lot hinges on Justin Jackson… A Jackson return puts UNC in the discussion for back-to-back
national titles. If he goes pro, they are still a solid Top 25 team, but the
ceiling may not be as high. I think he’s gone, but this ranking splits the difference
slightly. The senior losses of both starting big men are made up for by solid
replacements (Maye and Bradley), and the perimeter could be even better next
year with Berry, Pinson, and 5-star freshmen Felton. Along with some decent
young players and recruits, Roy Williams will have this team in the mix again.
11. (1) Villanova Wildcats (32-4)
Make
no mistake; Villanova will lose two irreplaceable players in Hart and Jenkins.
Those losses may keep them from being a Final Four favorite like they were this
past season. But this squad could still be really good. I love the backcourt of
Brunson and DiVencenzo, and Booth should return after missing most of last
season due to injury. The frontcourt is stout also, anchored by Bridges,
Paschall, and Omari Spellman, a former 5-star recruit that redshirted this past
year. Throw in a couple 4-star recruits and role players, and you are looking
at another dangerous Villanova team.
12. (NR) Minnesota Golden
Gophers (24-10)
You
are looking at the potential favorite in the Big Ten next season. They
surprised many en route to a top 4 finish in the Big Ten and a 5 seed in the
NCAA Tourney. They return all five starters, and add a couple solid freshmen
and a transfer to their bench (all but only player from the bench return also).
Nate Mason will be a candidate for POY in the Big Ten, as this team will battle
at the top of the standings.
13. (10) Louisville
Cardinals (25-9)
Louisville
isn’t viewed in the same light as Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas, but like those
teams you can always pencil Louisville into the Top 25 each season. The
graduates are minimal, but they will have to sweat out the NBA process for both
Mitchell and Adel. My guess is Adel returns, but Mitchell is 50/50. His scoring
is important for Louisville so that’s worth watching. The core is still very
good however, led by Snyder, Johnson, Mahmoud, Spalding, and King. Pitino is
adding a top 10 recruiting class also, which will make up for those NBA losses
if they happen.
14. (15) Purdue Boilermakers
(27-8)
For
now, this is the tentative ranking. However, if Swanigan shockingly comes back,
they move way up and become a true Final Four threat. Even without him, they
will continue their winning ways. Spike Albrecht, who got inconsistent minutes,
is the only senior. So everyone else should return including Thompson, Edwards,
Cline, Mathias, Edwards, and Haas. That’s quite a core from the Big Ten champs.
15. (8) UCLA Bruins (31-5)
UCLA
will lose a couple seniors (Alford/Hamilton), and a couple freshmen
(Ball/Leaf), all of which played significant minutes. But like many of the
elite programs in the country, this team is reloading. The Bruins have the #2
class in the country, highlighted by 5-star players Kris Wilkes and Jaylen
Hands. Holiday, Welsh, and Anigbogu will return to the team, and they also
welcome back Prince Ali who missed this past season due to injury. Oh, and
there is another Ball coming to campus…
16. (NR) Michigan State
Spartans (20-15)
After
an up and down year, Sparty should be much more consistent next season. The
biggest changes are in the frontcourt, where that weakness will become a
strength. Schilling and Carter, both injured last year, could both return.
They’ll join Ward, Goins, and 5-star stud Jaren Jackson. The backcourt should
be solid too led by Winston, McQuaid, Langford, and Nairn Jr. Tom Izzo is also
still recruiting a couple of the top uncommitted players in the country as
well. You’ve been warned.
17. (NR) Virginia Tech
Hokies (22-11)
Coach
Williams got his new team into the NCAA Tourney. Now he’ll look to improve on
that and win some games there. While they lose their top two scorers, this was
a deep team and they technically will bring back all five starters. In
addition, two great freshmen join the fray, including 5-star player
Alexander-Walker. This should be a dangerous squad in the ACC, and they will
return to the big dance next year.
18. (23) Michigan Wolverines
(26-12)
This
team got hot at the end of the year, and it should continue into next season.
They will play differently though with the losses of Walton and Irvin. They
should be a dominant interior team, leaning on Wilson and Wagner (assuming they
both return to school), who I think will be the best frontcourt in the Big Ten.
Robinson, Rahkman, and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews will still provide
some perimeter punch. Besides NBA decisions from the big men, the other
question mark about this team is their point guard position, which on paper
will be the biggest weakness.
19. (18) Cincinnati Bearcats
(30-6)
Cincy
won 30 games en route to a great season in the AAC. They were able to win one
tournament game before falling to UCLA. While they lose a couple key pieces to
their backcourt, they are adequately replacing them with a transfer in Cane
Broome (23 points per game at Sacred Heart), and current freshman Jarron
Cumberland, who averaged 8 points per game in limited minutes. Their frontcourt
is loaded as Evans, Clark, and Washington all return and form a great trio.
20. (NR) Northwestern
Wildcats (24-12)
After
making their first appearance in the big dance, and winning a game, this team
is set on making it two years in a row… and it should. Basically all of their
key players return, including McIntosh, Lindsey, Law, and Pardon. They will
regain a couple players who were injured all year too, which should increase
their depth. And they finally can play free of pressure since they got that
monkey off their back.
21. (NR) Providence Friars
(20-13)
Providence
squeaked into the NCAA Tourney this past season after ending the year on a hot
streak. Ed Cooley did a fantastic job with this team and gets everyone back
that played consistent minutes. Of course, that’s assuming Bullock returns
after declaring without an agent. They add a couple solid interior prospects,
which will improve their bench quality. They likely won’t have to sweat it out
on selection Sunday a year from now.
22. (NR) Miami Hurricanes
(21-12)
The
Hurricanes weren’t supposed to be that good this season, but they competed hard
in the ACC finishing above .500 in the conference and earning an at-large bid
into March Madness. Next year, it’s a different story. They lose two key
players, but are replacing them with three very good recruits, including Lonnie
Walker who is one of the best in the country. Newton, Brown, Huell, and
Lawrence Jr. are just some of the key players returning. Expect them to contend
now for real.
23. (NR) Seton Hall Pirates
(21-12)
Seton
Hall flew under the radar most of this season, but could be very good a next
eyar. This NCAA Tournament team should return all but one member of their rotation,
highlighted by Carrington, Rodriquez, and Delgado (likely to return as he’s
only projected as a second round pick). They are adding more talent with a very
talented freshman. They’ll be a tough out a year from now.
24. (NR) Alabama Crimson
Tide (19-15)
This
is my real surprise addition in my Top 25, chosen over a few other very worthy
candidates. Avery Johnson is out to change the program at Alabama and make them
relevant in basketball like they are in football. This past season, he turned
them into a great defensive team that won ten games in the SEC and just shy of
20 overall. He returns the core of that squad and adds a great recruiting
class. Two 5-star prospects join the fray and will help create more offense. A
birth into the NCAA Tourney is on the docket now.
25. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs
(24-15)
In
my lifetime, TCU has never been a basketball power. However, they ended the
season strong, beating Kansas in the Big 12 Tourney and winning the NIT. Their
top 6 players in terms of scoring return (barring something unforeseen) and
they are adding a couple 4-star recruits, plus a JC transfer. I’m intrigued and
I believe in Coach Dixon…
Five “Wildcard”
Teams
NOTE:
These five teams are not necessarily the next five teams in my overall rankings
(#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances
surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.
(7) Duke Blue Devils (28-9)
Coach
K has successfully turned his program into a modern “one-and-done” power. That
means he loses a lot of talent to the NBA, and replaces that talent with
incoming freshmen. The problem this year is that there are too many unknowns at
this point to rank them accurately. They could lose 6 of their top 7 to the NBA
or graduation, in addition to losing Jeter who is transferring. It’s possible
some return (Allen/Kennard), but the key next year will be the incoming
freshmen. At the moment, they only have a 3-man recruiting class. Despite two
being elite 5-star prospects, that not near enough to replace all of the
potential losses. They are in the discussion for many of the top uncommitted
players, so they could move into the rankings with more commits or the return
of Allen and/or Kennard.
(11) SMU Mustangs (30-5)
SMU
had a great season finishing with 30 wins and dominating the AAC once again.
While they lost a heartbreaker to USC in the NCAA Tourney, this is a group that
accomplished quite a bit. The good news for them is that 5 of their top 7
players could return, and they add some very talented newcomers. Two transfers
(one isn’t eligible until second semester) and four decent freshmen will help
provide depth, something they lacked this year. What hurts them however, is the
decision of Semi Ojeleye to declare for the draft. That’s what landed them in
the “Wildcard” category. If he doesn’t hire an agent and chooses to return to
SMU, they’ll move well into my Top 25. Staying in the draft would keep SMU just
barely out, as he was very important.
(14) Notre Dame Fighting
Irish (26-10)
There
is major uncertainty around this team due to Bonzie Colson. Scouts have said
they would take him the first round. So I think he’s likely gone if that’s
true. But his return pushes them into the Top 25. Especially with Matt Farrell
back and the team adding a great new player named DJ Harvey.
(NR) Xavier Musketeers (24-14)
There
are two NBA decisions to watch: Sumner and Bluiett. Sumner already announced
his intention to go pro, which hurts. But Bluiett is the decision I’m watching closely.
He is taking advantage of the new rules and will go through part of the NBA
Draft process to gather info before deciding. Ultimately, the team’s level of
success rides on his return or departure. After all, they nearly made the Final
4 without Sumner, but with Bluiett.
(NR) Indiana Hoosiers
(18-16)
Indiana
added a great young coach in Archie Miller. IU fans, like myself, hope his
success at Indiana rivals that of his brother at Arizona. But I put them in the
wildcard category because of the unknowns of the roster in year 1. Bryant,
Anunoby, and Blackman all have NBA decisions to make. Plus, will any of the
current roster transfer due to the coaching change? And lastly, who will Archie
Miller add late on the recruiting trail or transfer market if departures do
occur? Those questions need answered before I can rank this team objectively.
Previously Ranked and
Considered: Baylor,
Florida State, Iowa State, Butler, St. Mary’s, Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Teams that Just Missed
the Cut: Iowa,
South Carolina, Arkansas, VCU, Texas, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia
Tech
By:
Andrew Miller
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