Assessing the Rookies

Top 20 Fantasy Rookies

1. Trent Richardson – This Browns running back is a lock to get touches. He is already the best weapon on the team and will be a workhorse. This should mean ample production as a runner and as a receiver, along with getting carries around the goalline. The only question mark is the minor injury he just suffered in the pre-season. How long will he be feeling the effects of it? I’d be confident with him as my RB1 as long as I grabbed an RB2 immediately after.

2. Doug Martin – If all goes as expected, he should beat out Blount in the Tampa Bay backfield to become the lead back. He has potential to play all 3 downs because of his ability to catch the ball. Blount is proven though, which means Martin may split time or step back on short yardage situations, but I like the upside Martin brings. I’d be fine with him as my RB2.

3. Robert Griffin III – I’ve heard many say he could produce as Cam Newton did last season. If I thought that was true, he would be ranked 1 instead of 3. He will be solid this season though, and his legs will be a fantasy bonus, but what Cam did last year was rare. In time, RGIII could become a fantasy star, but this year you will have to settle with just decent production. Expect some huge games followed by some duds. He is a low-end QB1 so get a good backup.

4. Justin Blackmon – He was the first receiver who heard his name called this past summer in the draft. His situation though is ugly in Jacksonville. He is already the most talented guy there and probably their number one option, but there isn’t a reliable QB to get him the ball. Because of that, he is a bench guy or flex starter at best.

5. David Wilson – Yes, yes, another running back. Unlike Martin and Richardson though, he likely won’t be the starter immediately. He will probably serve as a change-of-pace back early behind Ahmad Bradshaw. But with the Giants, there will be plenty of opportunities to run. Bradshaw has also struggled with injuries, so Wilson could see a major increase in his workload if that happens. I would gladly take him on my bench.

6. Coby Fleener – This guy luckily got re-united with his college QB (Luck) in Indy. He could be a star, even as soon as this year. He is a great athlete and knows how to play the position. He and Luck have great chemistry already and the team will be playing from behind a lot this year. He is a low-end starter but more likely a high-end backup.

7. Andrew Luck – Speaking of the number one pick, Luck shined in his first pre-season game. That doesn’t always mean anything though. He is ultra talented, smart, and will be given the green light starting week 1. I bet he has some great games this year but plenty of ugly ones too. He is a backup in fantasy, but worth taking, particularly in keeper leagues.

8. Alshon Jeffery – This guy has a chance to produce instantly this year. He is tall and athletic, meaning he will be a redzone target. He plays on a good offense with a good quarterback, plus he plays opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he should be given plenty of one on one matchups. Just like Blackmon, he is a backup but could be nice for a flex spot.

9. Kendall Wright – This all depends on Kenny Britt. Britt may struggle to stay on the field battling back from injury and his off-field issues. That could benefit this rookie who would then see an increase in targets and battle Nate Washington as the lead guy. Stash him on your bench and he could even turn into gold.

10. Michael Floyd – This is a guy out of Notre Dame that starred in college. He has the ability to take over NFL games too but is now paired with some inconsistent QB’s. The offense should be a good fit and he plays opposite Fitz so that’s a plus. But Kolb and Skelton won’t do a good job of getting him the ball. If one of the QB’s figures it out, then Floyd could be productive.

11. Brian Quick – Sam Bradford doesn’t have any major weapons in St. Louis. This means that Quick could quickly become (pun not intended) the number one guy. If he does, then he could put up some good numbers this year and be worthy of a spot in your lineup. But he could just as easily slide behind some of the vets there and not produce at all.

12. Stephen Hill – Already a first teamer on the Jets, he will be in position to succeed immediately. If his teammate, Santonio Holmes, keeps underachieving, Hill could also become the main guy in the passing game. But the Jets will run it a ton, and Tebow will see plenty of time in the wildcat offense. This means WR’s there may be quiet often. He is a high-end backup though.

13. Ronnie Hillman – The Broncos have raved about him over and over and will see plenty of touches despite McGahee being the starter. Manning will also love him in the passing game so PPR leagues should eat this guy up. I would take him as a backup for sure, because his upside great and is viewed as a Darren Sproles type of player.

14. Isaiah Pead – See Ronnie Hillman (behind Steven Jackson though instead of McGahee)…

15. Rueben Randle – Victor Cruz broke out a year ago playing with Eli Manning. Maybe Randle can steal a page out of his teammate’s book this year. He will compete for targets with Cruz and Nicks, but Manningham is gone so he could slide into that role. He is only a backup in fantasy however.

16. Brandon Weeden – Another rookie quarterback who will start immediately. He doesn’t have a ton of weapons but they will be likely playing from behind. That means he’ll have the chance to throw a lot.

17. Ryan Tannehill – Very early this season, if not week 1, Tannehill will start at quarterback for the Dolphins. Just like Weeden, there aren’t a lot of weapons but playing from behind presents opportunities to throw.

18. LaMichael James – There are a lot of new mouths to feed in San Francisco at WR and RB. But James brings explosiveness that the others lack. He can be active all over the field running, catching, returning, or however the 49ers want.

19. Travis Benjamin – I mentioned that the Browns don’t have many weapons, but Benjamin could be one of them. There isn’t a big time target in town so why not this guy?

20. A.J. Jenkins – One of the new mouths in S.F. I mentioned earlier is this athletic receiver. He brings just as much to the table as the other newbies. If he develops some chemistry with Alex Smith, he could produce.

ALSO: Nick Toon (WR - Saints)

As you can see, rookies are often hit and miss. There are few guys here that you will plug into your lineup week after week. Most of these guys though are more in play for keeper leagues or extremely deep leagues. So don’t draft away thinking you’ll see major production this year. Be careful but enjoy the fruits of these youths!

Andrew