The Very First NCAA Basketball Top 25 for 2018-19

Congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats, who won their second national title in three years. They were consistently great all season, and to me were the clear top team all tournament long. Jalen Brunson is likely ending his career as one of the best players ever at Villanova, and Jay Wright continues to climb up the all-time coaching ranks. They truly deserved this one.

March Madness once again proved to be the best sports drama in the world. Loyola was clearly an epic story. We all love Sister Jean now and who saw them coming out of the South? But let’s not forget that we saw the first ever #16 vs. #1 upset, when UMBC took out Virginia! Not only were the Cavs a #1 seed, but they were also the top overall seed. As always, we saw upsets, breakout performances, and buzzer beaters. To be honest, the whole season was as unpredictable as ever. Quite a ride for all college basketball fans, despite the controversy surrounding the sport…

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early (posted a minute after the championship game), which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2018-19 College Basketball Top 25

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2017-18 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (2) Villanova Wildcats (36-4)

The National Champs start as my preseason favorite. Every key contributor could return, but my guess is Bridges and Brunson will declare for the NBA Draft. That’s it though. Two top 50 wings will help soften those blows, and Jahvon Quinerly is a five-star point guard that will replace Brunson. The interior duo of Spellman and Paschall could be the best in basketball next year, and I expect DiVincenzo to become an absolute star, just like he was in the championship game. Jay Wright, one of the best in the business, will keep this program rolling.

2. (4) Kansas Jayhawks (31-8)

Kansas is right on Villanova’s heels for the top spot, but just like we saw in the Final Four, I trust the current Villanova system slightly more than Kansas. As for the roster, we know Graham and Mykhaliliuk graduate, both of which are huge losses. Newman, Vick, and Azubuike face difficult NBA decisions however, and that’s where the roster uncertainty comes in. The bench for Kansas will return and be ready to step up, and the Jayhawks will add a TON of talent. Three major transfers practiced with the team all year and will now be eligible (Charlie Moore and the Lawson brothers). Plus, Kansas has three McDonald’s All-American commits, a couple of which stood out in the recent all-star exhibition. Lastly, they are a finalist for Romeo Langford, the top uncommitted recruit in the country. Looks like another Big 12 title at the very least.

3. (19) Auburn Tigers (26-8)

The NCAA scandal rocked Auburn early this past year as sophomores Purifoy and Wiley were forced to sit out this season, and a dark cloud surrounded head coach Bruce Pearl. Anfernee McLemore also got injured late in the year and had surgery recently. Yet Auburn shocked everyone and won the SEC during the regular season (tied with Tennessee). Next year, every single player returns, Purifoy and Wiley will return (at least for most of the year), and McLemore should be healthy by the start of the year. As for Pearl, their AD recently stated he plans on Pearl to still be his coach next year. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Auburn is in the national title hunt.

4. (13) Tennessee Volunteers (26-9)

Tennessee surprised most this year with their tremendous level of play. They tied for the SEC title, finished in the top 15 nationally, and were named a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They could have been in the Final Four had Loyola missed their last second shot against them. The good news is that they should be even better this coming year. Every starter returns and all but one bench player does too. Schofield is testing the waters, but most expect him back. They don’t have any recruits coming in, but who needs them? I expect even bigger things for Tennessee this season.

5. (9) Duke Blue Devils (29-8)

Coach K has turned Duke into a “one and done” powerhouse, and this year will be a prime example. Duke may lose its entire starting lineup to the draft (Allen is the lone graduate), but they are adding the best recruiting class in the country. In fact, it’s the first time ever that the top three players have all committed to the same place. Not even Kentucky has done that! Barrett, Williamson, and Reddish are those players, but they also add #1 point guard Tre Jones as well. So they will be young, but boy will they be talented!

6. (8) Gonzaga Bulldogs (32-5)

Stop me if you heard this before… Of all the non-power conference teams, Gonzaga has the best chance at winning a national title next season. Surprising right? Williams and Melson are both key losses, but the Bulldogs should return everyone else. Perkins/Norvell make up an electric backcourt duo, and Hachimura/Tillie create a dynamic frontcourt. Add in a good transfer player and two solid recruits and Mark Few has more than enough skill to compete at the highest level again.

7. (18) Kentucky Wildcats (26-11)

This is a team that has no seniors on the roster, but we all know there will be plenty that leave early. The question is who and how many? As for the replacements, the Wildcats currently have three commits, all five-star recruits. And Coach Cal is still involved with many of the top uncommitted players. So while I can’t predict the final roster, I can tell you that once again they’ll be loaded with talent.

8. (NR) Kansas State Wildcats (25-12)

Fresh off a run to the Elite 8, the Wildcats are set for a huge season. Every single player from that squad is set to return, barring what I’d consider a poor NBA decision by Dean Wade or anyone else. Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed really stepped up in the postseason, so I’d expect big years for both of them. This is one of the few teams that could realistically challenge Kansas atop the Big 12.

9. (1) Virginia Cavaliers (31-3)

After a shocking exit in their first March Madness game, it’s safe to say the season didn’t end well. On the flip side, who thought Virginia would be #1 and dominant heading into the season? Tony Bennett showed why he is one of the best coaches in the country, yet constantly goes under the radar. Next year, much of the perimeter will remain the same led by Guy and Jerome, but Virginia will miss a couple interior players in Hall and Wilkins. They don’t have a great recruiting class coming in, but they never do. Bennett will develop what he’s got and have them in the mix once again.

10. (10) North Carolina Tarheels (26-11)

North Carolina will have a different vibe about them next year due to their graduating seniors. Cam Johnson and Theo Pinson will be missed, but Joel Berry will be the biggest loss the Tarheels have had in a while. Their style of play will have to be adjusted slightly, and chemistry could be an issue early. But Luke Maye leads a list of talented returners, and Nassir Little is one of three highly touted recruits, two of which are five-star players. Once Roy Williams adjusts to his new roster, he’ll have them among the nation’s elite in no time.

11. (15) West Virginia Mountaineers (26-11)

WVU continues to churn out successful teams year after year under Bob Huggins. And while the graduation of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles will hurt, I expect the Mountaineers to continue their winning ways. Everyone else returns, which includes one of the best defensive bigs and last names in the country: Konate! Esa Ahmad will be able to play the entire season this time around, point guard Brandon Knapper (highly touted freshman) will return to the team after missing the whole year with an injury, and the team adds a couple key recruits to provide depth. Lots to look forward to.

12. (24) Nevada Wolf Pack (29-8)

This Sweet 16 team will be back at it next year, hoping to build upon their successful season. Five of their top six players return, including Jordan Caroline and the exciting Martin brothers. All three of those players averaged over 14 points per game. In addition to their talented returnees, four transfers join the program. Despite playing for smaller schools, all four transfers averaged double digit points. Should be a massively talented bunch.

13. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (21-12)

Buzz Williams continues to improve this program, as was the case again this past season. Only one starter moves on, so the team will take another leap in the year to come. Robinson, Hill, Alexander-Walker, Clarke, and Blackshear highlight what should be a deep roster. A few good recruits will add to that depth, and a couple players should be back at full strength after missing the season due to injury/redshirt. After finishing in the top half of the ACC this past season, they are now threatening the top four.

14. (NR) UCLA Bruins (21-12)

You are looking at my preseason Pac-12 favorite next season, despite some uncertainty with the returning group. Welsh and Gyorgy graduate, Holiday has stated he’s gone, Hands is testing without an agent, and we still don’t know about Wilkes. Assuming Hands and Wilkes return (or at least one), this team will still have star power, and a lot of promising talent remains throughout the rest of the roster (Prince Ali for example). The team will welcome back two of the three “China Shoplifters,” both of which were top 100 players. UCLA also welcomes the second best recruiting class in the country, led by Moses Brown and Shareef O’Neal. So they will look different, but this is another loaded roster.

15. (5) Michigan State Spartans (30-5)

A year ago, we all thought Michigan State was going to be insanely good, especially when Bridges chose to return for his sophomore season. They won the Big Ten regular season, but fizzled in both the Big Ten Tourney and the NCAA Tourney. Now they are set to graduate a few contributors, and lose even more early to the NBA. But despite all that, they are still a contender for another Big Ten title. MSU was deep, so plenty of talent returns. The list should include Langford, Winston, McQuaid, Tillman, Goins, and Ward (testing the waters without an agent). Coach Izzo also welcomes a handful of freshmen that will provide plenty of bench production. This will give them depth to overcome the lack of All-American talent like they had this past season.

16. (11) Purdue Boilermakers (30-7)

Most think Purdue will take a major step backwards next year with four key seniors departing. But if Carson Edwards returns (he’s testing the waters), they should be a top threat once again in the Big Ten. Edwards, Cline, Eastern, and Haarms will all be ready for larger roles. Dowuona and Hunter are perfect freshman additions that I expect to contribute immediately. In addition, last week they secured a commitment from Evan Boudreaux, a grad transfer from Dartmouth. He’s a double-double threat that can shoot from the perimeter (a better rebounding Vincent Edwards). While I don’t expect 30 wins again, this will still be a good team.

17. (NR) Syracuse Orange (23-14)

The Orange were inconsistent this year, yet managed to creep into the NCAA Tourney, much to my surprise. Then, they won three games (including their First Four win), highlighted by an upset win over the mighty Spartans of Michigan State. The team possessed no scholarship seniors, which means everyone should return (although one little used reserve has stated he will transfer). Although they lost a top recruit to the G-League recently, they still bring in an impact player in Jalen Carey, ESPN’s #5 shooting guard. He will help provide some perimeter scoring, which they lacked this season. Things are looking up.

18. (NR) Mississippi State Bulldogs (25-12)

The Bulldogs finished seventh in the SEC this past year, pretty decent in a loaded league. They even made a deep run in the NIT before losing to the eventual champion Penn State. Every rotation player is on track to return, and the team is adding two extremely good recruits (one five-star). Expect an improvement once again from this squad.

19. (7) Michigan Wolverines (33-8)

Michigan is coming off a memorable season that included a Big Ten Tourney Title, and a trip to the National Championship Game. Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson graduate, and Moe Wagner will almost certainly go pro after a massive end to the year. But the role players on this team are all ready to step up, just like they do year after year under Coach Beilein. Simpson, Poole, and Matthews will comprise a terrific backcourt. The frontcourt will be a group effort, spearheaded by Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske, Ignas Brazdeikis (highly ranked international), and Brandon Johns (top 60 recruit). With an improved defense and a versatile offensive system, Michigan won’t drop off too much.

20. (NR) Alabama Crimson Tide (20-16)

Alabama has shown steady improvement under Avery Johnson, making the NCAA Tourney this past season. I expect another step forward in 2018-19. Whole Collin Sexton will head to the NBA, the rest of the postseason roster returns. Two players who missed the season due to injury could return also. In addition, three four-star recruits join the fray, which can help replace Sexton’s impact. At the very least, they should be a more consistent bunch in 2018-19.

21. (23) Florida Gators (21-13)

I was high on Florida in my early Top 25 last year, but then they lost Egbunu for the season to injury and Devin Robinson to the NBA Draft early (went undrafted). So I’m tempering my expectations this time around since they are graduating Koulechov and Chiozza. Jalen Hudson is testing the waters, but isn’t hiring an agent so he could return along with the rest of the roster. Florida has a top 15 recruiting class that features three top 100 recruits, all perimeter players that fit White’s four guard sets. At the very least, they should perform as well as they did this past season.

22. (6) Cincinnati Bearcats (31-5)

It’s hard to build off of what they accomplished this past season, but they are certainly in a spot to succeed again. Cincy played ten guys frequently this year, and seven of them return (assuming Evans remains in the draft). That already puts them ahead of most teams in the country in terms of quality contributors. Leading the way are starters Cumberland and Jenifer, both of whom will be among the best players in the AAC. It should be their league to win once again.

23. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs (21-12)

What a year for TCU, finally getting back to the “Big Dance.” It could have been even better had Jaylen Fisher not gotten injured a couple months ago. His return from injury will be a big boost heading into next season. While two impact players depart (Wlliams and Brodziansky), the majority of the rotation comes back led by Fisher. The newcomers come in a variety of ways: three four-star recruits, one international prospect, and one highly regarded juco. This all blends together to create a team with a lot of potential.

24. (NR) Oregon Ducks (23-13)

Oregon was slightly under the radar this past year, but they are coming off a solid 23-win season and a nice run in the NIT. In terms of minutes played, eight of their top nine guys return, including Pritchard, E. Brown, and T. Brown. All three averaged double figures. The reason they are ranked this high though is due to their incoming recruiting class. Bol Bol is the #1 center in high school, Louis King is a fellow five-star recruit, Will Richardson is the #8 PG in the country, and Miles Norris is yet another Top-100 player. They are in the mix for another star as well. The Ducks are back once again…

25. (14) Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-10)

Nobody saw Texas Tech coming this past season, but now they’ll be playing with bigger expectations. They are losing four seniors, notably Keenan Evans among them, but this was a deep and talented team, so plenty of contributors return. Zhaire Smith is a stud and could have a massive year.  Culver and Stevenson will emerge more and more as well. The team adds a couple four-star recruits, a JC transfer, and a Missouri transfer (second semester). While I don’t expect them to challenge Kansas at the top of the conference, they are a top half Big 12 team for sure.

Five “Wildcard” Teams

NOTE: These five teams are NOT the next five teams in my overall rankings (#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.

(22) Miami Hurricanes (22-10)

Miami should be solid no matter what, and a likely NCAA tournament team. They’ve developed a lot of good players that will be back, and add in a very good transfer in Miles Wilson. However, their top 25 status is very dependent on NBA decisions. They already lose Ja’Quan Newton to graduation, but could lose Lonnie Walker and Bruce Brown early to the draft. Brown is likely to hire an agent, while Walker is more of an unknown. Keep an eye on those names over the next couple months.

(NR) Texas A&M Aggies (22-13)

The Aggies were up and down this year, playing as a top ten team at times, and a lowly SEC pretender at other times. In the big dance, they routed North Carolina to make the Sweet 16, and then got blown out themselves by Michigan. While the team loses a couple pieces heading into next year, the NBA decisions will determine how good this team will be. Williams, Davis, Hogg, and even Gilder face NBA decisions. Williams is likely gone, and Davis said he’ll test the waters without an agent. This uncertainty lands them among my wildcard teams.

(NR) Indiana Hoosiers (16-15)

Indiana was very up and down this season, it’s first under Archie Miller. But the ‘D’, Archie’s calling card, improved dramatically from start to finish. At one point during the Big Ten season, KenPom had them as a top ten defense over the course of a ten game stretch. With All-Big Ten selection Juwan Morgan headlining the returnees (assuming he returns that is), and a solid recruiting class coming in, they are bound to improve. The reason they are a “wildcard” though hinges on their two remaining scholarships. If Romeo Langford commits (#5 overall player and has IU in his top three), they jump into my top 25 and become Big Ten title contenders. They are also in the grad transfer mix.

(NR) Vanderbilt Commodores (12-20)

Vandy struggled this season in a loaded SEC, plus they lose their top three players to graduation. But Bryce Drew is set to bring in a tremendous recruiting class. Two McDonald’s All-Americans have already committed (Garland and Shittu), along with another Top 100 player and Notre Dame transfer Matt Ryan. That’s still not enough to push them into my rankings; however, they are another finalist for Romeo Langford (mentioned above with Indiana), and that would push them over the edge.

(NR) Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-11)

Nebraska won a lot more overall games than I would have guessed prior to the year, and they had a great Big Ten record. Apparently nobody truly believed in them as they were snubbed by the committee and missed out on March Madness. Next year could be different, as nearly the whole roster could be back. In fact, they could return their top four scorers and top four rebounders. They have to dodge two bullets first though. James Palmer Jr. and Isaac Copeland, their best players, will test the NBA waters without an agent. If both return, they are on the verge of earning a top 25 ranking. If one or both depart, then never mind.

Previously Ranked (last AP Poll) and Considered: Xavier, Arizona, Wichita State, Ohio State, Clemson, Houston, St. Mary’s

Other Teams that Just Missed the Cut: Butler, Arizona State, Florida State, Arkansas, Penn State, Providence, USC, Louisville, Wisconsin, Maryland, Marquette, Missouri, Creighton, Texas

By: Andrew Miller

The First NCAA Basketball Top 25 Poll for 2017-18

Congratulations to the North Carolina Tarheels who won their 6^th National Title in school history. Roy Williams picks up his third title respectively. Many are calling this redemption after their heartbreak a year ago in the championship game, but Kris Jenkins was on their side this time (game winner last year against them, was behind their bench in a UNC shirt tonight). Joel Berry was a fitting MVP as well and they deserved the win in what was a very close game. Congrats to Gonzaga on a great season however.

March Madness held up to its own lofty standards and delivered an epic tourney. While the first couple days lacked the typical amount of drama and upsets, there was a flurry of such things from then on out. The regular season and conference tourneys were just as great. From early season battles to conference rivalry games, college basketball treated its fans to greatness often. I will personally remember opening night, where my beloved Hoosiers took out Kansas in overtime in one of the year’s best games.

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early, which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some very big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2017-18 College Basketball Top 25

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2016-17 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (5) Kentucky Wildcats (32-6)

This is a team likely losing at least six key players. Three seniors actually, plus the freshmen trio of Fox, Monk, and Adebayo. Briscoe is another possibility, although he’s only a second rounder at best so he may return. But, they happen to have the best recruiting class in the country (again), and may still be adding to it. They already have five 5-star players, and another Top-35 player to boot. Like I said, they may not be done as some of the top uncommitted players are still considering the Wildcats also. Talented returners include Humphries, Gabriel, Briscoe (maybe), and Killeya-Jones. So while the turnover is massive, the results will be the same.

2. (9) Oregon Ducks (33-6)

The Ducks will be on a mission next year to prove its run in the NCAA Tournament was no fluke. Of course, they will have to await NBA decisions from Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell. This ranking reflects all of them returning, hungry to put the devastating loss to UNC behind them. That would mean they only lose Ennis and Boucher. They’ve proven in March that they can win without Boucher, and their incoming players will do more than enough to cover Ennis. The class is led by 5-star wing Troy Brown Jr. They will add two 4-star prospects also, and Altman isn’t done recruiting. This ranking plummets if those players leave early though.

3. (3) Kansas Jayhawks (31-5)

In my estimation, Kansas is once again the clear favorite in the Big 12. They will also be a Final Four contender, if they can finally figure out how to get past the Elite 8… As always, the Jayhawks will lose some key pieces. Mason, Lucas, and surely Jackson are gone, all of which played pivotal roles this past season. However, Graham, Vick, Mykhailiuk, Bragg, and Azubuike (injured this year) should all be back to form a great core. Add in some great newcomers, including transfer Malik Newman and 5-star big man Billy Preston, and this team will be stocked full of talent again.

4. (20) Florida Gators (27-9)

Florida made a shocking push to the Elite 8 and nearly made the Final 4 over the last couple of weeks. Next season, that will be the expectation. Role players Hill, Barry, and Leon depart, but everyone else returns (although Robinson is “testing the waters”). That includes their stars Chiozza, Allen, Robinson, and Egbunu. They add a top 10 recruiting class as well, thanks to four really good players. In addition to that, Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson is eligible and Dontay Bassett will return after missing all year with an injury. Looks like Kentucky might have some real competition this year at the top of the SEC.

5. (4) Arizona Wildcats (32-5)

Arizona is the west coast version of Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas. At the end of the season, there are a lot of unknowns due to the NBA talent on the roster that could leave early. But there is also plenty of talent ready to take the place of whoever departs. This team only had one senior, but they will await decisions from Markkanen, Trier, Simmons, and Alkins (Note: Markkanen already announced he’s leaving). Whoever returns will join Jackson-Cartwright, Ristic, and Comanche, along with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. The jewel is Scout’s #1 overall player DeAndre Ayton.

6. (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (37-2)

While the Bulldogs will await possible NBA decisions, the only definite losses will be seniors Jordan Mathews and Przemek Karnowski. While those hurt, plenty of talent could return. This ranking assumes they will. Williams-Goss and Collins headline the group, but don’t forget Melson, Perkins, and Williams. Mark Few will have plenty of his young guys developed more, and surely some decent additions. Tillie is a young man to watch in particular, who was seldom used this season but is a very talented big man from France and he played well in the Championship Game tonight.

7. (13) West Virginia Mountaineers (28-9)

While “Press Virginia” does lose a few seniors, they will be back among the toughest opponents in basketball. Since Bob Huggins plays 10+ guys a night, there is plenty of talent left to contend for a Big 12 title. The returnees are highlighted by Jevon Carter (their best player) and Daxter Miles Jr. That’s arguably the best backcourt in the conference. Along with plenty of frontcourt depth, there are a few recruits who will see the floor quickly. Like always, nobody will enjoy playing these guys next year.

8. (NR) USC Trojans (26-10)

The Trojans will be extremely talented next season. Every starter and 8 of the top 9 players return from a team that won two games (nearly three) in the NCAA Tourney. They are also adding three freshmen that should all contribute, plus Duke transfer Derryck Thornton Jr., who could turn into a starter himself. On paper, they are a real contender in the Pac-12, assuming Metu returns for his junior season.

9. (19) Wichita State Shockers (31-5)

The Shockers could be moving to a new conference, and I’m sure the Missouri Valley would be happy about it. This team returns every single player of relevance, and more importantly Gregg Marshall is still their coach. So the team that won 30+ games and nearly knocked off Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament will be utterly dangerous next year. I love Shamet and Morris in particular, as they are so unique. But Brown, McDuffie, and Frankamp complete a dynamite starting lineup.

10. (6) North Carolina Tarheels (33-7)

A lot hinges on Justin Jackson… A Jackson return puts UNC in the discussion for back-to-back national titles. If he goes pro, they are still a solid Top 25 team, but the ceiling may not be as high. I think he’s gone, but this ranking splits the difference slightly. The senior losses of both starting big men are made up for by solid replacements (Maye and Bradley), and the perimeter could be even better next year with Berry, Pinson, and 5-star freshmen Felton. Along with some decent young players and recruits, Roy Williams will have this team in the mix again.

11. (1) Villanova Wildcats (32-4)

Make no mistake; Villanova will lose two irreplaceable players in Hart and Jenkins. Those losses may keep them from being a Final Four favorite like they were this past season. But this squad could still be really good. I love the backcourt of Brunson and DiVencenzo, and Booth should return after missing most of last season due to injury. The frontcourt is stout also, anchored by Bridges, Paschall, and Omari Spellman, a former 5-star recruit that redshirted this past year. Throw in a couple 4-star recruits and role players, and you are looking at another dangerous Villanova team.

12. (NR) Minnesota Golden Gophers (24-10)

You are looking at the potential favorite in the Big Ten next season. They surprised many en route to a top 4 finish in the Big Ten and a 5 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They return all five starters, and add a couple solid freshmen and a transfer to their bench (all but only player from the bench return also). Nate Mason will be a candidate for POY in the Big Ten, as this team will battle at the top of the standings.

13. (10) Louisville Cardinals (25-9)

Louisville isn’t viewed in the same light as Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas, but like those teams you can always pencil Louisville into the Top 25 each season. The graduates are minimal, but they will have to sweat out the NBA process for both Mitchell and Adel. My guess is Adel returns, but Mitchell is 50/50. His scoring is important for Louisville so that’s worth watching. The core is still very good however, led by Snyder, Johnson, Mahmoud, Spalding, and King. Pitino is adding a top 10 recruiting class also, which will make up for those NBA losses if they happen.

14. (15) Purdue Boilermakers (27-8)

For now, this is the tentative ranking. However, if Swanigan shockingly comes back, they move way up and become a true Final Four threat. Even without him, they will continue their winning ways. Spike Albrecht, who got inconsistent minutes, is the only senior. So everyone else should return including Thompson, Edwards, Cline, Mathias, Edwards, and Haas. That’s quite a core from the Big Ten champs.

15. (8) UCLA Bruins (31-5)

UCLA will lose a couple seniors (Alford/Hamilton), and a couple freshmen (Ball/Leaf), all of which played significant minutes. But like many of the elite programs in the country, this team is reloading. The Bruins have the #2 class in the country, highlighted by 5-star players Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands. Holiday, Welsh, and Anigbogu will return to the team, and they also welcome back Prince Ali who missed this past season due to injury. Oh, and there is another Ball coming to campus…

16. (NR) Michigan State Spartans (20-15)

After an up and down year, Sparty should be much more consistent next season. The biggest changes are in the frontcourt, where that weakness will become a strength. Schilling and Carter, both injured last year, could both return. They’ll join Ward, Goins, and 5-star stud Jaren Jackson. The backcourt should be solid too led by Winston, McQuaid, Langford, and Nairn Jr. Tom Izzo is also still recruiting a couple of the top uncommitted players in the country as well. You’ve been warned.

17. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (22-11)

Coach Williams got his new team into the NCAA Tourney. Now he’ll look to improve on that and win some games there. While they lose their top two scorers, this was a deep team and they technically will bring back all five starters. In addition, two great freshmen join the fray, including 5-star player Alexander-Walker. This should be a dangerous squad in the ACC, and they will return to the big dance next year.

18. (23) Michigan Wolverines (26-12)

This team got hot at the end of the year, and it should continue into next season. They will play differently though with the losses of Walton and Irvin. They should be a dominant interior team, leaning on Wilson and Wagner (assuming they both return to school), who I think will be the best frontcourt in the Big Ten. Robinson, Rahkman, and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews will still provide some perimeter punch. Besides NBA decisions from the big men, the other question mark about this team is their point guard position, which on paper will be the biggest weakness.

19. (18) Cincinnati Bearcats (30-6)

Cincy won 30 games en route to a great season in the AAC. They were able to win one tournament game before falling to UCLA. While they lose a couple key pieces to their backcourt, they are adequately replacing them with a transfer in Cane Broome (23 points per game at Sacred Heart), and current freshman Jarron Cumberland, who averaged 8 points per game in limited minutes. Their frontcourt is loaded as Evans, Clark, and Washington all return and form a great trio.

20. (NR) Northwestern Wildcats (24-12)

After making their first appearance in the big dance, and winning a game, this team is set on making it two years in a row… and it should. Basically all of their key players return, including McIntosh, Lindsey, Law, and Pardon. They will regain a couple players who were injured all year too, which should increase their depth. And they finally can play free of pressure since they got that monkey off their back.

21. (NR) Providence Friars (20-13)

Providence squeaked into the NCAA Tourney this past season after ending the year on a hot streak. Ed Cooley did a fantastic job with this team and gets everyone back that played consistent minutes. Of course, that’s assuming Bullock returns after declaring without an agent. They add a couple solid interior prospects, which will improve their bench quality. They likely won’t have to sweat it out on selection Sunday a year from now.

22. (NR) Miami Hurricanes (21-12)

The Hurricanes weren’t supposed to be that good this season, but they competed hard in the ACC finishing above .500 in the conference and earning an at-large bid into March Madness. Next year, it’s a different story. They lose two key players, but are replacing them with three very good recruits, including Lonnie Walker who is one of the best in the country. Newton, Brown, Huell, and Lawrence Jr. are just some of the key players returning. Expect them to contend now for real.

23. (NR) Seton Hall Pirates (21-12)

Seton Hall flew under the radar most of this season, but could be very good a next eyar. This NCAA Tournament team should return all but one member of their rotation, highlighted by Carrington, Rodriquez, and Delgado (likely to return as he’s only projected as a second round pick). They are adding more talent with a very talented freshman. They’ll be a tough out a year from now.

24. (NR) Alabama Crimson Tide (19-15)

This is my real surprise addition in my Top 25, chosen over a few other very worthy candidates. Avery Johnson is out to change the program at Alabama and make them relevant in basketball like they are in football. This past season, he turned them into a great defensive team that won ten games in the SEC and just shy of 20 overall. He returns the core of that squad and adds a great recruiting class. Two 5-star prospects join the fray and will help create more offense. A birth into the NCAA Tourney is on the docket now.

25. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs (24-15)

In my lifetime, TCU has never been a basketball power. However, they ended the season strong, beating Kansas in the Big 12 Tourney and winning the NIT. Their top 6 players in terms of scoring return (barring something unforeseen) and they are adding a couple 4-star recruits, plus a JC transfer. I’m intrigued and I believe in Coach Dixon…

Five “Wildcard” Teams

NOTE: These five teams are not necessarily the next five teams in my overall rankings (#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.

(7) Duke Blue Devils (28-9)

Coach K has successfully turned his program into a modern “one-and-done” power. That means he loses a lot of talent to the NBA, and replaces that talent with incoming freshmen. The problem this year is that there are too many unknowns at this point to rank them accurately. They could lose 6 of their top 7 to the NBA or graduation, in addition to losing Jeter who is transferring. It’s possible some return (Allen/Kennard), but the key next year will be the incoming freshmen. At the moment, they only have a 3-man recruiting class. Despite two being elite 5-star prospects, that not near enough to replace all of the potential losses. They are in the discussion for many of the top uncommitted players, so they could move into the rankings with more commits or the return of Allen and/or Kennard.

(11) SMU Mustangs (30-5)

SMU had a great season finishing with 30 wins and dominating the AAC once again. While they lost a heartbreaker to USC in the NCAA Tourney, this is a group that accomplished quite a bit. The good news for them is that 5 of their top 7 players could return, and they add some very talented newcomers. Two transfers (one isn’t eligible until second semester) and four decent freshmen will help provide depth, something they lacked this year. What hurts them however, is the decision of Semi Ojeleye to declare for the draft. That’s what landed them in the “Wildcard” category. If he doesn’t hire an agent and chooses to return to SMU, they’ll move well into my Top 25. Staying in the draft would keep SMU just barely out, as he was very important.

(14) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (26-10)

There is major uncertainty around this team due to Bonzie Colson. Scouts have said they would take him the first round. So I think he’s likely gone if that’s true. But his return pushes them into the Top 25. Especially with Matt Farrell back and the team adding a great new player named DJ Harvey.

(NR) Xavier Musketeers (24-14)

There are two NBA decisions to watch: Sumner and Bluiett. Sumner already announced his intention to go pro, which hurts. But Bluiett is the decision I’m watching closely. He is taking advantage of the new rules and will go through part of the NBA Draft process to gather info before deciding. Ultimately, the team’s level of success rides on his return or departure. After all, they nearly made the Final 4 without Sumner, but with Bluiett.

(NR) Indiana Hoosiers (18-16)

Indiana added a great young coach in Archie Miller. IU fans, like myself, hope his success at Indiana rivals that of his brother at Arizona. But I put them in the wildcard category because of the unknowns of the roster in year 1. Bryant, Anunoby, and Blackman all have NBA decisions to make. Plus, will any of the current roster transfer due to the coaching change? And lastly, who will Archie Miller add late on the recruiting trail or transfer market if departures do occur? Those questions need answered before I can rank this team objectively.

Previously Ranked and Considered: Baylor, Florida State, Iowa State, Butler, St. Mary’s, Virginia, Wisconsin

Other Teams that Just Missed the Cut: Iowa, South Carolina, Arkansas, VCU, Texas, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech

By: Andrew Miller

2016 NBA Mock Draft #1

We’re halfway through the playoffs, but most teams are already looking ahead to next season. The NBA Combine is upon us and therefore draft decisions are still being made. The lottery takes place next week as well, which will tell us the specific order of the draft. Plus, coaching changes are happening, teams are prepping for free agency, and organizations are making plans for their future rosters. It’s a great time to do a mock draft.

Since many prospects are still being evaluated and teams haven’t started doing private workouts yet, this mock is not based upon what I’m predicting will happen. Instead, this mock is based upon what I believe should happen, and it gives an idea as to where I rank the prospects currently. Enjoy!

NOTE: The draft order below is based on the final NBA standings (and trades) as of 5/11/16.

2016 NBA Mock Draft #1

1. Philadelphia 76ers select: Brandon Ingram (SF, Duke)

The 76ers should not take another big man in Simmons, despite him being #1 on other scout draft boards. Ingram is a better offensive player, with better range, and plays a wing position which they need. In fact, I personally have Ingram above Simmons anyways.

2. Los Angeles Lakers select: Ben Simmons (PF, LSU)

I really don’t like the fit here (I like Ingram much better for LA), but Simmons is too tantalizing to pass up. I say you draft him and look to trade Julius Randle or Larry Nance. Randle in particular could bring you a top ten pick, in my opinion, in this year’s draft.

3. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn) select: Thon Maker (PF, Australia)

I’m sure many will be surprised by this selection, but this is what I’d do. The Celtics need a good big man, and I think Maker is the best option. He’s risky for sure, but he’s clearly the most talented option. I don’t like the foreigner Bender, and while I considered Poeltl here, he disappeared too often in college for my liking. Maker provides a perfect blend of size, athleticism, versatility, and upside. And yes, I consider him a top 5 prospect.

4. Phoenix Suns select: Dragan Bender (PF, Croatia)

While I don’t love Bender as much as others, the Suns possess three first round picks this year and can use one to stash a player overseas. Many see Bender as a future All-Star, so he’s worth a selection here. I also believe help at forward is needed badly, and with their backcourt as loaded as it is, it’s easier to pass on Murray, Hield, and Dunn.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves select: Jamal Murray (SG, Kentucky)

Minnesota needs to continue finding young talent to add to their roster, and I love Murray for them because he can shoot it. While Rubio, Wiggins, and Mohammed are all athletes who deserve playing time, none of them can make outside shots consistently. Murray gives them a guard with range that can stretch defenses. Buddy Hield would be another solid option.

6. New Orleans Pelicans select: Buddy Hield (SG, Oklahoma)

Buddy Hield was amazing last year and the only flaw in his draft stock is his age. Seeing as he played four years in college, he’s already much older than many of the prospects he’s compared to. With that said, we know at this point that he can score in bunches from behind the arc, and he also flashed underrated athleticism last season. The Pelicans will likely lose Eric Gordon this summer, but can replace him with Hield, who will put up similar numbers right away (and will hopefully remain healthier).

7. Denver Nuggets (from New York) select: Jaylen Brown (SG/SF, California)

The Nuggets still have not found a dominant wing that can stay healthy, despite numerous efforts the past few seasons. Brown is worth a selection here to see if he can be the guy. He has massive upside, but is still fairly raw. If he’s coached up right though, he could be a dynamic player at the next level.

8. Sacramento Kings select: Kris Dunn (PG, Providence)

With Rondo potentially on his way out the door this summer, Dunn would be an instant starter for them at point guard. At that position, Dunn has great size and a unique skill set as he does everything well. His toughness would be good for a Kings team that struggles displaying that on a nightly basis. Newly minted HC Dave Joerger would appreciate that greatly.

9. Toronto Raptors (from Denver) select: Skal Labissiere (PF, Kentucky)

The Raptors don’t have a set guy at power forward. The fact that Luis Scola started in that spot often is a sad fact. Labissiere still has a ways to go, but he has some great traits to build on. His outside touch would give spacing for Valanciunas to work inside, and he could provide rim protection on the defensive end.

10. Milwaukee Bucks select: Jakob Poeltl (C, Utah)

The Bucks seemed like a team on the rise a year ago, now it seems as if they need a mini-rebuild. Rumors I’ve heard are that they may look to trade or dump Greg Monroe, despite signing him to a hefty contract last offseason. I agree with the move however, particularly if they can get something good in return. Poeltl would be a nice replacement.

11. Orlando Magic select: Domantas Sabonis (PF, Gonzaga)

Sabonis has been really good for two years in college. This past season he also had great stretches of play in the NCAA Tourney, including a dominant performance against Poeltl. I think he could play alongside Vucevic very well in Orlando, and would give the team better depth inside. This takes pressure off both Vucevic and the backcourt, who currently carry the load.

12. Utah Jazz select: Dejounte Murray (G, Washington)

The Jazz took a nice step forward this year, but still have some issues at point guard. Barring a point guard signing or trade, they should look to draft one. Murray isn’t a pure point guard, but could play that spot if coached correctly. He also can play off the ball if desired. His upside is why I took him over other guard prospects available at this point.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington) select: Denzel Valentine (SF, Michigan State)

While I had the Suns stashing a player with their last pick, this time they take a “safe” player. Valentine fills a need at small forward, and can provide everything a team would want. He can score, pass, rebound, defend, and initiate offense. His age limits his upside, but he’s mature enough to contribute right away.

14. Chicago Bulls select: Diamond Stone (C, Maryland)

Gasol and Noah could both be gone (free agents), which suddenly means the Bulls would be thin inside. At this stage of the draft process, not much separates the remaining players. So I prefer Stone above the other options. He has a lot of potential on both ends, and that was clear to see despite being underused in college.

15. Denver Nuggets (from Houston) select: Furkan Korkmaz (SG, Turkey)

Denver, with three first round selections, should take a risk with at least one of them. So taking Korkmaz is perfect for this squad as he’s a big time foreign scorer that could star in the NBA one day. Who knows how long he’ll play overseas, but the Nuggets can afford to wait a tad longer.

16. Boston Celtics (from Dallas) select: Deyonta Davis (PF, Michigan State)

Yet another team with three picks in the first round, Boston takes another big man with upside. He is a guy that can man the paint, finish in traffic, and is slowly developing a nice jump shot. Defending the pick-and-roll is also something Davis can do well. I think Brad Stevens would love this kid.

17. Memphis Grizzlies select: Tyler Ulis (PG, Kentucky)

The Memphis Grizzlies are getting a new coach, have nine free agents this summer, and now face a uncertain future. There are a lot of question marks surrounding the roster, so this pick is simply the player I like the most at this stage in the draft. I’m also predicting Mike Conley changes teams this summer. Ulis would especially make sense then.

18. Detroit Pistons select: Henry Ellenson (PF, Marquette)

Count me among those who think Morris is nothing more than a good bench player… not a starter. Ellenson could be a very nice option inside next to Drummond however, particularly due to his offensive versatility. He’s such a unique player that some teams will love him and others will will hate him. If I’m Detroit, I love him.

19. Denver Nuggets (from Portland) select: Brice Johnson (PF, North Carolina)

Similar to current big man Kenneth Faried, Johnson makes his living on rebounding and finishing. He has a very high motor and tremendous jumping ability. This would be a safe pick for Denver that ensures they get production from this draft choice. If I’m Denver, I’d also shop Faried since I’m taking a younger version of him here.

20. Indiana Pacers select: Malik Beasley (SG, Florida State)

The Pacers have a lot of guys who are streaky shooters or are shooters with limited range. For them to truly go “small” as Bird wants, they need shooters that can be relied upon consistently. And while Beasley has some deficiencies in other areas, his best attribute is his jump shot. That’s why this pick makes sense. If a solid versatile big falls to this spot (like Myles Turner last year), I’d take another one of those. In this scenario however, I didn’t see any fits I liked that well.

21. Atlanta Hawks select: Malachi Richardson (SG, Syracuse)

With nearly their whole roster at the end of their contracts this summer or next, Atlanta simply needs to find the best available player. Richardson was quietly a great one and done player, who emerged late in the year and helped guide Syracuse into the Final Four. He’s got solid size and plays hard at both ends. If they happen to lose Kent Bazemore this offseason, Richardson would help ease the loss. And if Kent comes back, Richardson makes the bench must better.

22. Charlotte Hornets select: AJ Hammons (C, Purdue)

Seeing as they have selected Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky recently, let’s take a third Big Ten big man… In all seriousness, this pick is made due to the potential losses of Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams. They also struggle to protect the rim, even with those guys, and Hammons excels in that area. Plus, he’s shown development in his post game and is the best big man remaining on my board. If a shooter falls in their lap here, that would be another solid selection.

23. Boston Celtics select: Malcolm Brogdon (SG, Virginia)

While Boston went with large upside big men with their first two picks, this time they take a safer player that can log minutes on the perimeter. He’d be a perfect second team player that can contribute right away, particularly important with Evan Turner at the end of his contract. Many see him as a second round pick, but I like him better than Justin Anderson who was taken at #21 last year in a better draft class.

24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami) select: Caris LeVert (SG, Michigan)

As you can tell by both of my picks so far for Philadelphia (LeVert and Ingram), I’d acquire perimeter players if I’m the GM in this draft. LeVert has been injured a lot recently, but he can do nearly everything well and still has room to grow. If healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he started for the 76ers next season in this scenario.

25. Los Angeles Clippers select: Marquese Chriss (PF, Washington)

While I’m not a huge Chriss fan, this is tremendous value for him and he could be a valuable backup (or replacement) for Blake Griffin. He is still raw in areas, but that of course means he has massive upside.

26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City) select: Timothe Luwawu (SG, France)

He’s a major scoring prospect from a country that’s given the NBA solid players. The athleticism is there as well and he can play on both ends. As I’ve done with other teams in this mock, teams with three picks have options and stashing a player is a decent decision for a team rebuilding. Obviously, I’m still picking wings for the 76ers in hopes of finding some production there.

27. Toronto Raptors select: Patrick McCaw (SG, UNLV)

This is my insurance policy in case Derozan is in a different uniform in a few months. McCaw is a tad streaky, but he can score in bunches and possesses a lot of talent. I like his size for the position and I think he’d fit in well in Toronto.

28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland) select: Ben Bentil (PF, Providence)

Bentil exploded onto the scene this season and was a lethal scoring machine in the Big East. He did it from inside, outside, and in between. And while the Suns took Bender at #4 in this draft, it may take a few years to get him to the states. Bentil could come in right now and make a difference off the bench (or more in time).

29. San Antonio Spurs select: DeAndre Bembry (SG/SF, St. Joe’s)

Bembry is the type of player the Spurs seem to always draft or acquire; which is to say that he’s unique. He has great speed, quickness, and athleticism, which makes him a dynamic defender. His raw offensive game would be polished nicely in San Antonio too. In many ways, he reminds me of Kawhi Leonard when he was coming out of college. You know how that’s worked out for the Spurs.

30. Golden State Warriors select: Cheick Diallo (PF/C, Kansas)

Despite not playing much for the Jayhawks last year, I still love this kid’s potential and thought he was handled all wrong last year by Bill Self. I remember watching him play a year ago in the McDonald’s All-American game and at the Nike Hoop Summit, and thought he was better than the majority of players in his class (including many taken above him in this mock). That’s the guy the Warriors would be selecting here. His high motor and ability to do the little things is exactly what they need, as all their big men (except Green) will be free agents this year or next. I guess what I’m saying is that this could be Bogut’s potential replacement.

By: The Sports Guys