The Very First NCAA Basketball Top 25 for 2018-19

Congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats, who won their second national title in three years. They were consistently great all season, and to me were the clear top team all tournament long. Jalen Brunson is likely ending his career as one of the best players ever at Villanova, and Jay Wright continues to climb up the all-time coaching ranks. They truly deserved this one.

March Madness once again proved to be the best sports drama in the world. Loyola was clearly an epic story. We all love Sister Jean now and who saw them coming out of the South? But let’s not forget that we saw the first ever #16 vs. #1 upset, when UMBC took out Virginia! Not only were the Cavs a #1 seed, but they were also the top overall seed. As always, we saw upsets, breakout performances, and buzzer beaters. To be honest, the whole season was as unpredictable as ever. Quite a ride for all college basketball fans, despite the controversy surrounding the sport…

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early (posted a minute after the championship game), which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2018-19 College Basketball Top 25

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2017-18 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (2) Villanova Wildcats (36-4)

The National Champs start as my preseason favorite. Every key contributor could return, but my guess is Bridges and Brunson will declare for the NBA Draft. That’s it though. Two top 50 wings will help soften those blows, and Jahvon Quinerly is a five-star point guard that will replace Brunson. The interior duo of Spellman and Paschall could be the best in basketball next year, and I expect DiVincenzo to become an absolute star, just like he was in the championship game. Jay Wright, one of the best in the business, will keep this program rolling.

2. (4) Kansas Jayhawks (31-8)

Kansas is right on Villanova’s heels for the top spot, but just like we saw in the Final Four, I trust the current Villanova system slightly more than Kansas. As for the roster, we know Graham and Mykhaliliuk graduate, both of which are huge losses. Newman, Vick, and Azubuike face difficult NBA decisions however, and that’s where the roster uncertainty comes in. The bench for Kansas will return and be ready to step up, and the Jayhawks will add a TON of talent. Three major transfers practiced with the team all year and will now be eligible (Charlie Moore and the Lawson brothers). Plus, Kansas has three McDonald’s All-American commits, a couple of which stood out in the recent all-star exhibition. Lastly, they are a finalist for Romeo Langford, the top uncommitted recruit in the country. Looks like another Big 12 title at the very least.

3. (19) Auburn Tigers (26-8)

The NCAA scandal rocked Auburn early this past year as sophomores Purifoy and Wiley were forced to sit out this season, and a dark cloud surrounded head coach Bruce Pearl. Anfernee McLemore also got injured late in the year and had surgery recently. Yet Auburn shocked everyone and won the SEC during the regular season (tied with Tennessee). Next year, every single player returns, Purifoy and Wiley will return (at least for most of the year), and McLemore should be healthy by the start of the year. As for Pearl, their AD recently stated he plans on Pearl to still be his coach next year. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Auburn is in the national title hunt.

4. (13) Tennessee Volunteers (26-9)

Tennessee surprised most this year with their tremendous level of play. They tied for the SEC title, finished in the top 15 nationally, and were named a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They could have been in the Final Four had Loyola missed their last second shot against them. The good news is that they should be even better this coming year. Every starter returns and all but one bench player does too. Schofield is testing the waters, but most expect him back. They don’t have any recruits coming in, but who needs them? I expect even bigger things for Tennessee this season.

5. (9) Duke Blue Devils (29-8)

Coach K has turned Duke into a “one and done” powerhouse, and this year will be a prime example. Duke may lose its entire starting lineup to the draft (Allen is the lone graduate), but they are adding the best recruiting class in the country. In fact, it’s the first time ever that the top three players have all committed to the same place. Not even Kentucky has done that! Barrett, Williamson, and Reddish are those players, but they also add #1 point guard Tre Jones as well. So they will be young, but boy will they be talented!

6. (8) Gonzaga Bulldogs (32-5)

Stop me if you heard this before… Of all the non-power conference teams, Gonzaga has the best chance at winning a national title next season. Surprising right? Williams and Melson are both key losses, but the Bulldogs should return everyone else. Perkins/Norvell make up an electric backcourt duo, and Hachimura/Tillie create a dynamic frontcourt. Add in a good transfer player and two solid recruits and Mark Few has more than enough skill to compete at the highest level again.

7. (18) Kentucky Wildcats (26-11)

This is a team that has no seniors on the roster, but we all know there will be plenty that leave early. The question is who and how many? As for the replacements, the Wildcats currently have three commits, all five-star recruits. And Coach Cal is still involved with many of the top uncommitted players. So while I can’t predict the final roster, I can tell you that once again they’ll be loaded with talent.

8. (NR) Kansas State Wildcats (25-12)

Fresh off a run to the Elite 8, the Wildcats are set for a huge season. Every single player from that squad is set to return, barring what I’d consider a poor NBA decision by Dean Wade or anyone else. Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed really stepped up in the postseason, so I’d expect big years for both of them. This is one of the few teams that could realistically challenge Kansas atop the Big 12.

9. (1) Virginia Cavaliers (31-3)

After a shocking exit in their first March Madness game, it’s safe to say the season didn’t end well. On the flip side, who thought Virginia would be #1 and dominant heading into the season? Tony Bennett showed why he is one of the best coaches in the country, yet constantly goes under the radar. Next year, much of the perimeter will remain the same led by Guy and Jerome, but Virginia will miss a couple interior players in Hall and Wilkins. They don’t have a great recruiting class coming in, but they never do. Bennett will develop what he’s got and have them in the mix once again.

10. (10) North Carolina Tarheels (26-11)

North Carolina will have a different vibe about them next year due to their graduating seniors. Cam Johnson and Theo Pinson will be missed, but Joel Berry will be the biggest loss the Tarheels have had in a while. Their style of play will have to be adjusted slightly, and chemistry could be an issue early. But Luke Maye leads a list of talented returners, and Nassir Little is one of three highly touted recruits, two of which are five-star players. Once Roy Williams adjusts to his new roster, he’ll have them among the nation’s elite in no time.

11. (15) West Virginia Mountaineers (26-11)

WVU continues to churn out successful teams year after year under Bob Huggins. And while the graduation of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles will hurt, I expect the Mountaineers to continue their winning ways. Everyone else returns, which includes one of the best defensive bigs and last names in the country: Konate! Esa Ahmad will be able to play the entire season this time around, point guard Brandon Knapper (highly touted freshman) will return to the team after missing the whole year with an injury, and the team adds a couple key recruits to provide depth. Lots to look forward to.

12. (24) Nevada Wolf Pack (29-8)

This Sweet 16 team will be back at it next year, hoping to build upon their successful season. Five of their top six players return, including Jordan Caroline and the exciting Martin brothers. All three of those players averaged over 14 points per game. In addition to their talented returnees, four transfers join the program. Despite playing for smaller schools, all four transfers averaged double digit points. Should be a massively talented bunch.

13. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (21-12)

Buzz Williams continues to improve this program, as was the case again this past season. Only one starter moves on, so the team will take another leap in the year to come. Robinson, Hill, Alexander-Walker, Clarke, and Blackshear highlight what should be a deep roster. A few good recruits will add to that depth, and a couple players should be back at full strength after missing the season due to injury/redshirt. After finishing in the top half of the ACC this past season, they are now threatening the top four.

14. (NR) UCLA Bruins (21-12)

You are looking at my preseason Pac-12 favorite next season, despite some uncertainty with the returning group. Welsh and Gyorgy graduate, Holiday has stated he’s gone, Hands is testing without an agent, and we still don’t know about Wilkes. Assuming Hands and Wilkes return (or at least one), this team will still have star power, and a lot of promising talent remains throughout the rest of the roster (Prince Ali for example). The team will welcome back two of the three “China Shoplifters,” both of which were top 100 players. UCLA also welcomes the second best recruiting class in the country, led by Moses Brown and Shareef O’Neal. So they will look different, but this is another loaded roster.

15. (5) Michigan State Spartans (30-5)

A year ago, we all thought Michigan State was going to be insanely good, especially when Bridges chose to return for his sophomore season. They won the Big Ten regular season, but fizzled in both the Big Ten Tourney and the NCAA Tourney. Now they are set to graduate a few contributors, and lose even more early to the NBA. But despite all that, they are still a contender for another Big Ten title. MSU was deep, so plenty of talent returns. The list should include Langford, Winston, McQuaid, Tillman, Goins, and Ward (testing the waters without an agent). Coach Izzo also welcomes a handful of freshmen that will provide plenty of bench production. This will give them depth to overcome the lack of All-American talent like they had this past season.

16. (11) Purdue Boilermakers (30-7)

Most think Purdue will take a major step backwards next year with four key seniors departing. But if Carson Edwards returns (he’s testing the waters), they should be a top threat once again in the Big Ten. Edwards, Cline, Eastern, and Haarms will all be ready for larger roles. Dowuona and Hunter are perfect freshman additions that I expect to contribute immediately. In addition, last week they secured a commitment from Evan Boudreaux, a grad transfer from Dartmouth. He’s a double-double threat that can shoot from the perimeter (a better rebounding Vincent Edwards). While I don’t expect 30 wins again, this will still be a good team.

17. (NR) Syracuse Orange (23-14)

The Orange were inconsistent this year, yet managed to creep into the NCAA Tourney, much to my surprise. Then, they won three games (including their First Four win), highlighted by an upset win over the mighty Spartans of Michigan State. The team possessed no scholarship seniors, which means everyone should return (although one little used reserve has stated he will transfer). Although they lost a top recruit to the G-League recently, they still bring in an impact player in Jalen Carey, ESPN’s #5 shooting guard. He will help provide some perimeter scoring, which they lacked this season. Things are looking up.

18. (NR) Mississippi State Bulldogs (25-12)

The Bulldogs finished seventh in the SEC this past year, pretty decent in a loaded league. They even made a deep run in the NIT before losing to the eventual champion Penn State. Every rotation player is on track to return, and the team is adding two extremely good recruits (one five-star). Expect an improvement once again from this squad.

19. (7) Michigan Wolverines (33-8)

Michigan is coming off a memorable season that included a Big Ten Tourney Title, and a trip to the National Championship Game. Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson graduate, and Moe Wagner will almost certainly go pro after a massive end to the year. But the role players on this team are all ready to step up, just like they do year after year under Coach Beilein. Simpson, Poole, and Matthews will comprise a terrific backcourt. The frontcourt will be a group effort, spearheaded by Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske, Ignas Brazdeikis (highly ranked international), and Brandon Johns (top 60 recruit). With an improved defense and a versatile offensive system, Michigan won’t drop off too much.

20. (NR) Alabama Crimson Tide (20-16)

Alabama has shown steady improvement under Avery Johnson, making the NCAA Tourney this past season. I expect another step forward in 2018-19. Whole Collin Sexton will head to the NBA, the rest of the postseason roster returns. Two players who missed the season due to injury could return also. In addition, three four-star recruits join the fray, which can help replace Sexton’s impact. At the very least, they should be a more consistent bunch in 2018-19.

21. (23) Florida Gators (21-13)

I was high on Florida in my early Top 25 last year, but then they lost Egbunu for the season to injury and Devin Robinson to the NBA Draft early (went undrafted). So I’m tempering my expectations this time around since they are graduating Koulechov and Chiozza. Jalen Hudson is testing the waters, but isn’t hiring an agent so he could return along with the rest of the roster. Florida has a top 15 recruiting class that features three top 100 recruits, all perimeter players that fit White’s four guard sets. At the very least, they should perform as well as they did this past season.

22. (6) Cincinnati Bearcats (31-5)

It’s hard to build off of what they accomplished this past season, but they are certainly in a spot to succeed again. Cincy played ten guys frequently this year, and seven of them return (assuming Evans remains in the draft). That already puts them ahead of most teams in the country in terms of quality contributors. Leading the way are starters Cumberland and Jenifer, both of whom will be among the best players in the AAC. It should be their league to win once again.

23. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs (21-12)

What a year for TCU, finally getting back to the “Big Dance.” It could have been even better had Jaylen Fisher not gotten injured a couple months ago. His return from injury will be a big boost heading into next season. While two impact players depart (Wlliams and Brodziansky), the majority of the rotation comes back led by Fisher. The newcomers come in a variety of ways: three four-star recruits, one international prospect, and one highly regarded juco. This all blends together to create a team with a lot of potential.

24. (NR) Oregon Ducks (23-13)

Oregon was slightly under the radar this past year, but they are coming off a solid 23-win season and a nice run in the NIT. In terms of minutes played, eight of their top nine guys return, including Pritchard, E. Brown, and T. Brown. All three averaged double figures. The reason they are ranked this high though is due to their incoming recruiting class. Bol Bol is the #1 center in high school, Louis King is a fellow five-star recruit, Will Richardson is the #8 PG in the country, and Miles Norris is yet another Top-100 player. They are in the mix for another star as well. The Ducks are back once again…

25. (14) Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-10)

Nobody saw Texas Tech coming this past season, but now they’ll be playing with bigger expectations. They are losing four seniors, notably Keenan Evans among them, but this was a deep and talented team, so plenty of contributors return. Zhaire Smith is a stud and could have a massive year.  Culver and Stevenson will emerge more and more as well. The team adds a couple four-star recruits, a JC transfer, and a Missouri transfer (second semester). While I don’t expect them to challenge Kansas at the top of the conference, they are a top half Big 12 team for sure.

Five “Wildcard” Teams

NOTE: These five teams are NOT the next five teams in my overall rankings (#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.

(22) Miami Hurricanes (22-10)

Miami should be solid no matter what, and a likely NCAA tournament team. They’ve developed a lot of good players that will be back, and add in a very good transfer in Miles Wilson. However, their top 25 status is very dependent on NBA decisions. They already lose Ja’Quan Newton to graduation, but could lose Lonnie Walker and Bruce Brown early to the draft. Brown is likely to hire an agent, while Walker is more of an unknown. Keep an eye on those names over the next couple months.

(NR) Texas A&M Aggies (22-13)

The Aggies were up and down this year, playing as a top ten team at times, and a lowly SEC pretender at other times. In the big dance, they routed North Carolina to make the Sweet 16, and then got blown out themselves by Michigan. While the team loses a couple pieces heading into next year, the NBA decisions will determine how good this team will be. Williams, Davis, Hogg, and even Gilder face NBA decisions. Williams is likely gone, and Davis said he’ll test the waters without an agent. This uncertainty lands them among my wildcard teams.

(NR) Indiana Hoosiers (16-15)

Indiana was very up and down this season, it’s first under Archie Miller. But the ‘D’, Archie’s calling card, improved dramatically from start to finish. At one point during the Big Ten season, KenPom had them as a top ten defense over the course of a ten game stretch. With All-Big Ten selection Juwan Morgan headlining the returnees (assuming he returns that is), and a solid recruiting class coming in, they are bound to improve. The reason they are a “wildcard” though hinges on their two remaining scholarships. If Romeo Langford commits (#5 overall player and has IU in his top three), they jump into my top 25 and become Big Ten title contenders. They are also in the grad transfer mix.

(NR) Vanderbilt Commodores (12-20)

Vandy struggled this season in a loaded SEC, plus they lose their top three players to graduation. But Bryce Drew is set to bring in a tremendous recruiting class. Two McDonald’s All-Americans have already committed (Garland and Shittu), along with another Top 100 player and Notre Dame transfer Matt Ryan. That’s still not enough to push them into my rankings; however, they are another finalist for Romeo Langford (mentioned above with Indiana), and that would push them over the edge.

(NR) Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-11)

Nebraska won a lot more overall games than I would have guessed prior to the year, and they had a great Big Ten record. Apparently nobody truly believed in them as they were snubbed by the committee and missed out on March Madness. Next year could be different, as nearly the whole roster could be back. In fact, they could return their top four scorers and top four rebounders. They have to dodge two bullets first though. James Palmer Jr. and Isaac Copeland, their best players, will test the NBA waters without an agent. If both return, they are on the verge of earning a top 25 ranking. If one or both depart, then never mind.

Previously Ranked (last AP Poll) and Considered: Xavier, Arizona, Wichita State, Ohio State, Clemson, Houston, St. Mary’s

Other Teams that Just Missed the Cut: Butler, Arizona State, Florida State, Arkansas, Penn State, Providence, USC, Louisville, Wisconsin, Maryland, Marquette, Missouri, Creighton, Texas

By: Andrew Miller

The First NCAA Basketball Top 25 Poll for 2017-18

Congratulations to the North Carolina Tarheels who won their 6^th National Title in school history. Roy Williams picks up his third title respectively. Many are calling this redemption after their heartbreak a year ago in the championship game, but Kris Jenkins was on their side this time (game winner last year against them, was behind their bench in a UNC shirt tonight). Joel Berry was a fitting MVP as well and they deserved the win in what was a very close game. Congrats to Gonzaga on a great season however.

March Madness held up to its own lofty standards and delivered an epic tourney. While the first couple days lacked the typical amount of drama and upsets, there was a flurry of such things from then on out. The regular season and conference tourneys were just as great. From early season battles to conference rivalry games, college basketball treated its fans to greatness often. I will personally remember opening night, where my beloved Hoosiers took out Kansas in overtime in one of the year’s best games.

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early, which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), more coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some very big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2017-18 College Basketball Top 25

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2016-17 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (5) Kentucky Wildcats (32-6)

This is a team likely losing at least six key players. Three seniors actually, plus the freshmen trio of Fox, Monk, and Adebayo. Briscoe is another possibility, although he’s only a second rounder at best so he may return. But, they happen to have the best recruiting class in the country (again), and may still be adding to it. They already have five 5-star players, and another Top-35 player to boot. Like I said, they may not be done as some of the top uncommitted players are still considering the Wildcats also. Talented returners include Humphries, Gabriel, Briscoe (maybe), and Killeya-Jones. So while the turnover is massive, the results will be the same.

2. (9) Oregon Ducks (33-6)

The Ducks will be on a mission next year to prove its run in the NCAA Tournament was no fluke. Of course, they will have to await NBA decisions from Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell. This ranking reflects all of them returning, hungry to put the devastating loss to UNC behind them. That would mean they only lose Ennis and Boucher. They’ve proven in March that they can win without Boucher, and their incoming players will do more than enough to cover Ennis. The class is led by 5-star wing Troy Brown Jr. They will add two 4-star prospects also, and Altman isn’t done recruiting. This ranking plummets if those players leave early though.

3. (3) Kansas Jayhawks (31-5)

In my estimation, Kansas is once again the clear favorite in the Big 12. They will also be a Final Four contender, if they can finally figure out how to get past the Elite 8… As always, the Jayhawks will lose some key pieces. Mason, Lucas, and surely Jackson are gone, all of which played pivotal roles this past season. However, Graham, Vick, Mykhailiuk, Bragg, and Azubuike (injured this year) should all be back to form a great core. Add in some great newcomers, including transfer Malik Newman and 5-star big man Billy Preston, and this team will be stocked full of talent again.

4. (20) Florida Gators (27-9)

Florida made a shocking push to the Elite 8 and nearly made the Final 4 over the last couple of weeks. Next season, that will be the expectation. Role players Hill, Barry, and Leon depart, but everyone else returns (although Robinson is “testing the waters”). That includes their stars Chiozza, Allen, Robinson, and Egbunu. They add a top 10 recruiting class as well, thanks to four really good players. In addition to that, Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson is eligible and Dontay Bassett will return after missing all year with an injury. Looks like Kentucky might have some real competition this year at the top of the SEC.

5. (4) Arizona Wildcats (32-5)

Arizona is the west coast version of Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas. At the end of the season, there are a lot of unknowns due to the NBA talent on the roster that could leave early. But there is also plenty of talent ready to take the place of whoever departs. This team only had one senior, but they will await decisions from Markkanen, Trier, Simmons, and Alkins (Note: Markkanen already announced he’s leaving). Whoever returns will join Jackson-Cartwright, Ristic, and Comanche, along with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. The jewel is Scout’s #1 overall player DeAndre Ayton.

6. (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (37-2)

While the Bulldogs will await possible NBA decisions, the only definite losses will be seniors Jordan Mathews and Przemek Karnowski. While those hurt, plenty of talent could return. This ranking assumes they will. Williams-Goss and Collins headline the group, but don’t forget Melson, Perkins, and Williams. Mark Few will have plenty of his young guys developed more, and surely some decent additions. Tillie is a young man to watch in particular, who was seldom used this season but is a very talented big man from France and he played well in the Championship Game tonight.

7. (13) West Virginia Mountaineers (28-9)

While “Press Virginia” does lose a few seniors, they will be back among the toughest opponents in basketball. Since Bob Huggins plays 10+ guys a night, there is plenty of talent left to contend for a Big 12 title. The returnees are highlighted by Jevon Carter (their best player) and Daxter Miles Jr. That’s arguably the best backcourt in the conference. Along with plenty of frontcourt depth, there are a few recruits who will see the floor quickly. Like always, nobody will enjoy playing these guys next year.

8. (NR) USC Trojans (26-10)

The Trojans will be extremely talented next season. Every starter and 8 of the top 9 players return from a team that won two games (nearly three) in the NCAA Tourney. They are also adding three freshmen that should all contribute, plus Duke transfer Derryck Thornton Jr., who could turn into a starter himself. On paper, they are a real contender in the Pac-12, assuming Metu returns for his junior season.

9. (19) Wichita State Shockers (31-5)

The Shockers could be moving to a new conference, and I’m sure the Missouri Valley would be happy about it. This team returns every single player of relevance, and more importantly Gregg Marshall is still their coach. So the team that won 30+ games and nearly knocked off Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament will be utterly dangerous next year. I love Shamet and Morris in particular, as they are so unique. But Brown, McDuffie, and Frankamp complete a dynamite starting lineup.

10. (6) North Carolina Tarheels (33-7)

A lot hinges on Justin Jackson… A Jackson return puts UNC in the discussion for back-to-back national titles. If he goes pro, they are still a solid Top 25 team, but the ceiling may not be as high. I think he’s gone, but this ranking splits the difference slightly. The senior losses of both starting big men are made up for by solid replacements (Maye and Bradley), and the perimeter could be even better next year with Berry, Pinson, and 5-star freshmen Felton. Along with some decent young players and recruits, Roy Williams will have this team in the mix again.

11. (1) Villanova Wildcats (32-4)

Make no mistake; Villanova will lose two irreplaceable players in Hart and Jenkins. Those losses may keep them from being a Final Four favorite like they were this past season. But this squad could still be really good. I love the backcourt of Brunson and DiVencenzo, and Booth should return after missing most of last season due to injury. The frontcourt is stout also, anchored by Bridges, Paschall, and Omari Spellman, a former 5-star recruit that redshirted this past year. Throw in a couple 4-star recruits and role players, and you are looking at another dangerous Villanova team.

12. (NR) Minnesota Golden Gophers (24-10)

You are looking at the potential favorite in the Big Ten next season. They surprised many en route to a top 4 finish in the Big Ten and a 5 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They return all five starters, and add a couple solid freshmen and a transfer to their bench (all but only player from the bench return also). Nate Mason will be a candidate for POY in the Big Ten, as this team will battle at the top of the standings.

13. (10) Louisville Cardinals (25-9)

Louisville isn’t viewed in the same light as Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas, but like those teams you can always pencil Louisville into the Top 25 each season. The graduates are minimal, but they will have to sweat out the NBA process for both Mitchell and Adel. My guess is Adel returns, but Mitchell is 50/50. His scoring is important for Louisville so that’s worth watching. The core is still very good however, led by Snyder, Johnson, Mahmoud, Spalding, and King. Pitino is adding a top 10 recruiting class also, which will make up for those NBA losses if they happen.

14. (15) Purdue Boilermakers (27-8)

For now, this is the tentative ranking. However, if Swanigan shockingly comes back, they move way up and become a true Final Four threat. Even without him, they will continue their winning ways. Spike Albrecht, who got inconsistent minutes, is the only senior. So everyone else should return including Thompson, Edwards, Cline, Mathias, Edwards, and Haas. That’s quite a core from the Big Ten champs.

15. (8) UCLA Bruins (31-5)

UCLA will lose a couple seniors (Alford/Hamilton), and a couple freshmen (Ball/Leaf), all of which played significant minutes. But like many of the elite programs in the country, this team is reloading. The Bruins have the #2 class in the country, highlighted by 5-star players Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands. Holiday, Welsh, and Anigbogu will return to the team, and they also welcome back Prince Ali who missed this past season due to injury. Oh, and there is another Ball coming to campus…

16. (NR) Michigan State Spartans (20-15)

After an up and down year, Sparty should be much more consistent next season. The biggest changes are in the frontcourt, where that weakness will become a strength. Schilling and Carter, both injured last year, could both return. They’ll join Ward, Goins, and 5-star stud Jaren Jackson. The backcourt should be solid too led by Winston, McQuaid, Langford, and Nairn Jr. Tom Izzo is also still recruiting a couple of the top uncommitted players in the country as well. You’ve been warned.

17. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (22-11)

Coach Williams got his new team into the NCAA Tourney. Now he’ll look to improve on that and win some games there. While they lose their top two scorers, this was a deep team and they technically will bring back all five starters. In addition, two great freshmen join the fray, including 5-star player Alexander-Walker. This should be a dangerous squad in the ACC, and they will return to the big dance next year.

18. (23) Michigan Wolverines (26-12)

This team got hot at the end of the year, and it should continue into next season. They will play differently though with the losses of Walton and Irvin. They should be a dominant interior team, leaning on Wilson and Wagner (assuming they both return to school), who I think will be the best frontcourt in the Big Ten. Robinson, Rahkman, and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews will still provide some perimeter punch. Besides NBA decisions from the big men, the other question mark about this team is their point guard position, which on paper will be the biggest weakness.

19. (18) Cincinnati Bearcats (30-6)

Cincy won 30 games en route to a great season in the AAC. They were able to win one tournament game before falling to UCLA. While they lose a couple key pieces to their backcourt, they are adequately replacing them with a transfer in Cane Broome (23 points per game at Sacred Heart), and current freshman Jarron Cumberland, who averaged 8 points per game in limited minutes. Their frontcourt is loaded as Evans, Clark, and Washington all return and form a great trio.

20. (NR) Northwestern Wildcats (24-12)

After making their first appearance in the big dance, and winning a game, this team is set on making it two years in a row… and it should. Basically all of their key players return, including McIntosh, Lindsey, Law, and Pardon. They will regain a couple players who were injured all year too, which should increase their depth. And they finally can play free of pressure since they got that monkey off their back.

21. (NR) Providence Friars (20-13)

Providence squeaked into the NCAA Tourney this past season after ending the year on a hot streak. Ed Cooley did a fantastic job with this team and gets everyone back that played consistent minutes. Of course, that’s assuming Bullock returns after declaring without an agent. They add a couple solid interior prospects, which will improve their bench quality. They likely won’t have to sweat it out on selection Sunday a year from now.

22. (NR) Miami Hurricanes (21-12)

The Hurricanes weren’t supposed to be that good this season, but they competed hard in the ACC finishing above .500 in the conference and earning an at-large bid into March Madness. Next year, it’s a different story. They lose two key players, but are replacing them with three very good recruits, including Lonnie Walker who is one of the best in the country. Newton, Brown, Huell, and Lawrence Jr. are just some of the key players returning. Expect them to contend now for real.

23. (NR) Seton Hall Pirates (21-12)

Seton Hall flew under the radar most of this season, but could be very good a next eyar. This NCAA Tournament team should return all but one member of their rotation, highlighted by Carrington, Rodriquez, and Delgado (likely to return as he’s only projected as a second round pick). They are adding more talent with a very talented freshman. They’ll be a tough out a year from now.

24. (NR) Alabama Crimson Tide (19-15)

This is my real surprise addition in my Top 25, chosen over a few other very worthy candidates. Avery Johnson is out to change the program at Alabama and make them relevant in basketball like they are in football. This past season, he turned them into a great defensive team that won ten games in the SEC and just shy of 20 overall. He returns the core of that squad and adds a great recruiting class. Two 5-star prospects join the fray and will help create more offense. A birth into the NCAA Tourney is on the docket now.

25. (NR) TCU Horned Frogs (24-15)

In my lifetime, TCU has never been a basketball power. However, they ended the season strong, beating Kansas in the Big 12 Tourney and winning the NIT. Their top 6 players in terms of scoring return (barring something unforeseen) and they are adding a couple 4-star recruits, plus a JC transfer. I’m intrigued and I believe in Coach Dixon…

Five “Wildcard” Teams

NOTE: These five teams are not necessarily the next five teams in my overall rankings (#’s 26-30). Instead, they are teams that have unknown circumstances surrounding them that could push them into the Top 25 or keep them out.

(7) Duke Blue Devils (28-9)

Coach K has successfully turned his program into a modern “one-and-done” power. That means he loses a lot of talent to the NBA, and replaces that talent with incoming freshmen. The problem this year is that there are too many unknowns at this point to rank them accurately. They could lose 6 of their top 7 to the NBA or graduation, in addition to losing Jeter who is transferring. It’s possible some return (Allen/Kennard), but the key next year will be the incoming freshmen. At the moment, they only have a 3-man recruiting class. Despite two being elite 5-star prospects, that not near enough to replace all of the potential losses. They are in the discussion for many of the top uncommitted players, so they could move into the rankings with more commits or the return of Allen and/or Kennard.

(11) SMU Mustangs (30-5)

SMU had a great season finishing with 30 wins and dominating the AAC once again. While they lost a heartbreaker to USC in the NCAA Tourney, this is a group that accomplished quite a bit. The good news for them is that 5 of their top 7 players could return, and they add some very talented newcomers. Two transfers (one isn’t eligible until second semester) and four decent freshmen will help provide depth, something they lacked this year. What hurts them however, is the decision of Semi Ojeleye to declare for the draft. That’s what landed them in the “Wildcard” category. If he doesn’t hire an agent and chooses to return to SMU, they’ll move well into my Top 25. Staying in the draft would keep SMU just barely out, as he was very important.

(14) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (26-10)

There is major uncertainty around this team due to Bonzie Colson. Scouts have said they would take him the first round. So I think he’s likely gone if that’s true. But his return pushes them into the Top 25. Especially with Matt Farrell back and the team adding a great new player named DJ Harvey.

(NR) Xavier Musketeers (24-14)

There are two NBA decisions to watch: Sumner and Bluiett. Sumner already announced his intention to go pro, which hurts. But Bluiett is the decision I’m watching closely. He is taking advantage of the new rules and will go through part of the NBA Draft process to gather info before deciding. Ultimately, the team’s level of success rides on his return or departure. After all, they nearly made the Final 4 without Sumner, but with Bluiett.

(NR) Indiana Hoosiers (18-16)

Indiana added a great young coach in Archie Miller. IU fans, like myself, hope his success at Indiana rivals that of his brother at Arizona. But I put them in the wildcard category because of the unknowns of the roster in year 1. Bryant, Anunoby, and Blackman all have NBA decisions to make. Plus, will any of the current roster transfer due to the coaching change? And lastly, who will Archie Miller add late on the recruiting trail or transfer market if departures do occur? Those questions need answered before I can rank this team objectively.

Previously Ranked and Considered: Baylor, Florida State, Iowa State, Butler, St. Mary’s, Virginia, Wisconsin

Other Teams that Just Missed the Cut: Iowa, South Carolina, Arkansas, VCU, Texas, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech

By: Andrew Miller

Really Early 2016-17 College Basketball Top 25

Congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats on winning the National Championship. I am still in disbelief over the last few minutes of that Championship Game, which literally just ended. The shot to tie it at the end, then the game winner… It just caps off an amazing and unpredictable season. And after some blowouts in the Final Four, it was great to see such an instant classic tonight. Hats off to both teams on a great game, postseason run, and season. These will be memories that last a lifetime.

As for everyone else, March Madness was… madness! After the crazy regular season, would you expect anything else? We had upsets, game winners, amazing individual and team performances, and tons of tension as games always went down to the wire, particularly that first weekend. Some players will leave on high notes, others on low ones, and others will have extra motivation for next season. Many called this “The Year of the Senior,” and many of those players in particular will be missed.

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early, which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some very big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2016-17 College Basketball Top 25

(Plus 5 More)

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2015-16 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (19) Duke Blue Devils (25-11)

As of right now, things are looking incredible for Duke next year. Plumlee will graduate and Brandon Ingram is going pro, but the rest of the roster could return. Jefferson was granted another year by the NCAA and Grayson Allen hasn’t declared at this point. Along with those two, don’t forget about Thornton, Kennard, Jones, and Jeter who all played significant roles this season. Joining all that talent is one of the top two recruiting classes in the country, led by the top two players in the land: Giles and Tatum. Coach K will have a truly loaded roster.

2. (10) Kentucky Wildcats (27-9)

True to the norm, nobody has a clue what Kentucky’s roster will actually look like next year. Will they lose a handful of guys to the NBA or will some surprise us and return? Also, the team is still recruiting and is involved with plenty of uncommitted big names. Coach Cal has already stated that this class could be his best one ever (four McDonald’s All-Americans to date), which is pretty scary. Regardless of the outcomes of any of this, the Wildcats will be stocked full of talent and will be a legitimate title contender no matter what.

3. (6) Villanova Wildcats (35-5)

Despite winning the National Championship there are not many “pro prospects” on this roster, so I’m going to assume they only lose their two seniors Arcidiacono and Ochefu. The core of this team will still be great however, with Brunson, Booth, Bridges, Hart, and Jenkins. Fordham transfer Eric Paschall (16 ppg) will help inside immediately, as will 5-star freshman center Omari Spellman. They have a legit shot to win back-to-back titles as Florida did years ago.

4. (NR) Wisconsin Badgers (22-13)

The entire roster from this Sweet 16 team is set to return, assuming Nigel Hayes doesn’t leave early (which he shouldn’t). That makes Wisconsin a Final Four threat and the probable favorite in the Big Ten. In addition to all the returning players, newly minted HC Greg Gard says the team will try to hit the transfer market to fill out some of the roster as well. If that includes anyone of significance, look out!

5. (3) North Carolina Tarheels (33-7)

It’s tough to lose on a game winner, but the Tarheels had a great season nonetheless. Now we’ll see which underclassman they will lose. Justin Jackson is likely gone, and maybe Hicks/Meeks explore their options. But if not, we could easily see this team return to the Final Four. The only definite losses are Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson. But they have enough talent outside of those two that will allow them to overcome the departures if the others stay. The team also adds three great recruits that will help immediately.

6. (9) Xavier Musketeers (28-6)

This ranking hinges upon the status of their top players… Trevon Bluiett and Jalen Reynolds will reportedly test the NBA waters but will not hire agents. My opinion is that they are simply taking advantage of the new rules and will both return to school in the end. If so, this will be a loaded team. They will only lose two role players from a squad that ranked in the top 10 and was given a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They are adding two top-100 recruits though to replace them. The team’s accomplishments in the past year will easily be matched next season and improved upon if the stars return.

7. (1) Kansas Jayhawks (33-5)

Of all the teams in the top ten, this is the one I’m most unsure of. They lose three seniors, one of which is Perry Ellis. Selden and Greene are declaring early and hiring agents. The talented Diallo is also testing the waters, and I’m worried Frank Mason will too. And unlike Duke and Kentucky, Kansas doesn’t have an unreal recruiting class to cover all these losses. But they are involved with all of the top recruits that are uncommitted and my guess is they land some of them. Combine them with what’s left of their great team and I think they’ll be okay. In Bill Self I trust!

8. (5) Oregon Ducks (31-7)

The reigning Pac-12 champs will only lose two key frontcourt pieces, but their best big man Boucher was granted another year of eligibility. Better yet, they should still have Brooks and Dorsey (there top two players) on the perimeter. Jordan Bell and Casey Bensen are returning role players that are ready for more minutes. The recruiting class is decent and will provide depth on the bench. And knowing Dana Altman, he’ll probably try to add a transfer as he’s done in the past. They have a great chance to repeat this past season’s success.

9. (14) Indiana Hoosiers (27-8)

We all know that losing Yogi Ferrell is a massive loss; however, the other seniors won’t be missed near as much (Bielfeldt and Ziesloft). The thing to watch for in Bloomington is the NBA status of Troy Williams and Thomas Bryant. If they return (Bryant in particular), this is a Top Ten team. If they leave, they’ll slide much further down in the rankings. Remember that Blackmon and Johnson will return from injury, many other contributors return, and they have a couple impact players entering the program. Hoo Hoo Hoo, Hoosiers!

10. (17) Arizona Wildcats (25-9)

A quartet of seniors are gone, most notably Tarczewski and Anderson in the frontcourt. So how can an underperforming team that’s losing at least four contributors improve their ranking? Well… Allen, Trier (who announced his return today), Ristic, Jackson-Cartwright, and Ray Smith (injured last season) should all return, and they will be joined by an elite recruiting class. Three top players are already committed (two McDonald’s All-Americans), and the Wildcats are finalists for multiple uncommitted 5-star prospects. To put it simply, Arizona is reloading.

11. (2) Michigan State Spartans (29-6)

Let’s get the bad news out of the way: losing seniors Valentine, Forbes, and Costello will hurt badly. Deyonta Davis will surely consider leaving for the NBA early too. But Izzo is bringing in the best recruiting class he’s ever had and returns many from a deep roster. They are also in the mix to add another 5-star prospect (Josh Jackson) that is from the state of Michigan. I’ve seen Izzo do more with less.

12. (4) Virginia Cavaliers (29-8)

I think Tony Bennett’s “system” will get put to the test a little next year. The seniors they lose are big-time: Nolte, Tobey, Gill, and Brogan. However, they gain just as many top 100 recruits including McDonald’s All-American Kyle Guy. Those incoming players, along with Memphis transfer Austin Nichols will help ease the pain. There may be a lot riding on the shoulders of London Perrantes, but if he steps up as Brogdan and other seniors in the past have, they’ll still remain an elite ACC team.

13. (NR) USC Trojans (21-13)

On paper, this will be a very talented group. Reinhardt is transferring, but this team could still bring back five double-digit scorers to piece together a terrific starting lineup. Other returners and a couple impact recruits will give them a decent bench, and Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron is eligible to play this season. What to watch for here is the status of Julian Jacobs and Bennie Boatwright, who will likely look into leaving for the NBA. My guess is they return to school however.

14. (NR) Dayton Flyers (25-8)

This is going to be a scary team in the A-10. A deep team this last season will see all but one rotation player return next year. They’ll have backcourt stars, frontcourt studs, and depth off the bench. If you are looking for a mid-major team to make a March splash a year from now, Dayton is the team to bet on.

15. (10) Miami Hurricanes (27-8)

Out the door are seniors Rodriquez, McClellan, and Jekiri. That’s the core of the team in my opinion. Two very good recruits are coming in (along with a transfer that sat out last year), but I still think this squad takes a small step back next year.

16. (8) West Virginia Mountaineers (26-9)

The Mountaineers were a very deep squad, so they should be able to overcome losing senior Holton and star Jaysean Paige. Devin Williams will be a big loss however, as they lacked depth inside behind him. The good news is that Huggins will develop the players that do come back and there are about 6-7 good ones left.

17. (16) Louisville Cardinals (23-8)

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Louisville at the moment, especially considering they could be punished even more for the prostitution scandal. But in terms of basketball, Pitino continues to maximize talent and get the job done. They surprised me this past season by how good they were, so I can’t doubt them again. As always, Pitino will overcome any losses through player development and a couple key additions. They’ll be another Cardinal team that nobody will enjoy playing. What could alter this ranking is if they lose Onuaku, who has initially declared for the draft without an agent.

18. (NR) Michigan Wolverines (23-13)

Michigan’s losses include LaVert and Albrecht, both of whom rarely played this season due to injury, and Doyle, who would have entered next season third on the depth chart at center. So that means nearly all players from the roster that made the Big Ten semis and won a game in the NCAA Tourney return. Some decent recruits will add depth, and this should be a very good team next season.

19. (NR) St. Mary’s Gaels (29-6)

The Gaels felt they were deserving of a NCAA birth. After all, they were first in the WCC over Gonzaga (who made the Sweet 16). The good news for them is that they return everyone, as they had no seniors. Three decent recruits join the party as well, which makes this a very solid team out west.

20. (NR) Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-8)

For a mid-major program, Gonzaga is set to lose a lot of talent. Wiltjer is gone, as is Dranginis and McClellan. Big man Sabonis will likely go pro early, and Karnowski will be gone too unless he is granted another year coming off of injury. However, the team is gaining the eligibility of two great transfers, Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington) and Johnathan Williams (Missouri). Both of them were the best players on their squads before leaving. The team is also adding McDonalds All-American Zach Collins and another top 100 recruit. Three international prospects join the team too. Add that to the expected development Perkins, Melson, Edwards, and Alberts, there is plenty of talent left to win the WCC and make a postseason run.

21. (20) Seton Hall Pirates (25-9)

This team was supposed to just lose bench player Derrick Gordon, but it looks as if Isaiah Whitehead will be gone now too (NBA). Too bad, because they would have returned their entire starting lineup had Whitehead stayed. The good news though is that everyone else returns and they add two good recruits. They’ll still be a solid Big East team as they were this past year.

22. (NR) Pittsburgh Panthers (21-12)

Lots of experience potentially returns for Pitt (only losing one key player), however they lost Head Coach Jamie Dixon too. It’s tough to rank this team due to that loss. Kevin Stallings (Vanderbilt) takes over and will have a great roster to work with, one that should easily finish in the top tier of the ACC next season. However, his Vanderbilt teams have recently underperformed, so that worries me a little.

23. (NR) UCLA Bruins (15-17)

The Bruins were an underachieving team this past season, no doubt. But in the non-conference, they had some great wins and actually crept into the Top 25 on multiple occasions. Their collapse in the Pac-12 came as a shock to everyone as their roster had a lot of talent. Next year’s team won’t fade however, as every contributor except Parker returns (barring any unforeseen NBA declarations). They will add three top 100 players as well, and two of those recruits actually played in the McDonald’s All-American game including young star Lonzo Ball. This will be the most talent Steve Alford has ever had and he better take advantage.

24. (NR) Butler Bulldogs (22-11)

The team will miss Jones and Dunham without question, but a core four return: Lewis, Martin, Chrabascz, and Wideman. They also add a GW transfer in Kethan Savage that will likely be one of their top scorers. Rumors are out there already that they are a possible destination for Spike Albrecht, who is transferring from Michigan. Seems like they will be a tough Bulldog team once more no matter what.

25. (NR) Syracuse Orange (23-14)

This ranking may seem low for a Final Four team, but it also could be too high depending on early entries. That’s why I’m cautious in my evaluation here. They lose Cooney and Gbinije, which are significant departures, but they should retain a core of Richardson, Roberson, Lydon, Howard, and Coleman. They also add a great guard in Tyus Battle and a couple other decent players. We’ll see what happens.

Plus 5 More

26. (NR) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-12)

Zach Auguste graduates and Demetrius Jackson declared for the NBA. The rest of the roster returns though, which means they will avoid falling apart. If they land a major recruit this spring or add some graduate transfers, this could increase their ranking come November.

27. (NR) Texas Longhorns (20-13)

Five seniors are gone and Isaiah Taylor may consider leaving. Clearly those losses are tough. However, the team was very deep, the recruiting class is good, and the team figures to add impact players in the months to come. In fact, they are a finalist for the #1 center in the nation, and they already claim to be active on the transfer market. With Shaka Smart in control, I think they’ll be about the same as this year.

28. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (20-15)

Like many of the middle ACC teams next year, this is a squad on the rise. Buzz Williams is getting his team to play better and better with each passing day and he’ll have back his entire lineup to improve upon a 7^th place finish in the conference.

29. (7) Oklahoma Sooners (29-8)

This Final Four team is losing the heart and soul of their squad in Spangler, Hield, and Cousins. Although they have a few impact players coming in to join Woodard, Lattin, and some high upside bench players, it is not enough to keep them from falling out of Big 12 contention.

30. (18) Maryland Terrapins (27-9)

We know Sulaimon and Layman will graduate, but the key to next year will be retaining their young stars. I’m talking specifically about Trimble, Stone, and Carter. If they come back, this will be a very dangerous team again and they will jump WAY up in the rankings. If they leave, the Terrapins become a middle level team in the Big Ten, and this ranking may be too generous. Stone actually declared today, but I’m unsure of his agent status though. No word on the others. We’ll see…

Previously Ranked and Considered: Utah, Texas A&M, Iowa State, California, Purdue, Baylor, SMU, Iowa

Other Teams I Considered: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Houston, Marquette, Monmouth, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Florida State

By: Andrew Miller