Final Four Preview

The Final Four is here and college basketball is sadly almost over. It should be an exciting evening tonight with each team possessing a chance to win. Neither Greg nor Andrew predicted any of these teams to be here, but were not really surprised by their presence either (besides the Shockers obviously). Because of that, our Tourney Challenge is complete and the final results are below:

Andrew – 52 Points

Greg – 49 Points

We do still have the ongoing “secondary picks” competition (our picks for tonight will be at the bottom of this blog). Andrew currently leads 11-5 in those.

But as for our preview, comments are below. We analyzed each team and posted at the bottom what we want and think will happen. Enjoy!

West Regional Champion: Wichita State Shockers

Andrew: Wichita State “shocked” me by advancing this far. It wasn’t that surprising when they beat Gonzaga, but I thought they wouldn’t have a chance against the Buckeyes. I was wrong. They play extremely tough defense, and possess a balanced offense. Their depth is a strength, as it seems they can come at you in waves. They are taking on the best team in the country and have a tall task ahead of them. Here are my keys for them:

1. Shoot a high percentage from the field, particularly outside. They aren’t a great shooting team so in order to pull off an upset, they better get hot. Louisville will speed them up which should give them some decent looks I would guess.

2. Limit their turnovers. I just said that Louisville could speed teams up by pressuring the ball relentlessly. Wichita State must protect the ball and keep Louisville from getting points off turnovers.

3. Contain Siva/Smith. Smith can score from anywhere. Siva can penetrate and finish or kick for buckets. If you can’t take that away, Louisville will blow the Shockers out.

Greg: They have certainly lived up to their name by making it this far in the tournament, and will definitely do so if they continue to win.  A #9 seed has never advanced past the national semifinal round of the tournament.  This team plays solid team basketball. They do not have any glaring weaknesses; though they do not shoot the 3 as well as you might think they would. I like this team to advance probably more than most against Louisville, but here are the keys to the game if the Shockers are going to pull off the upset as a 10.5 point underdog.

1. Limit their turnovers to under 10. The Shockers average 13 TO/game. They need to keep that number under 10 to manage the pace of the game, and not allow Louisville to get easy baskets.

2. Keep Malcolm Armstead and Cleanthony Early out of foul trouble. These two will, at times, both be matched up against Russ Smith. They need to both stay out of foul trouble and play 30+ minutes each for the Shockers to have a legitimate chance. The key to this is to know when to attack and speed the game up, and when to slow the game down. They need to attack the press and score easily when it is available, but when it is not, slow it down and run time off of the clock and make Louisville play half court defense.

3. Shoot at least 20 free throws and make 80% of them. Wichita State averages 20.2 free throw attempts per game, and makes them at a roughly 70% rate.  They need to do that and make most of them to win.

Midwest Regional Champions: Louisville Cardinals

Andrew: Louisville has been the best team in the tournament so far. They were in the Final Four last year, are led by veterans, have solid play inside and outside, have a go-to scorer, great defense and rebounding, and have the emotional edge due to Ware’s injury. They can’t lose right? Well, they will have to play well. Here are their keys:

1. Russ Smith needs to be Russ Smith. Scoring is what he does best. He has been great in the tournament. Keep it up.

2. Peyton Siva needs to be Peyton Siva. He leads Louisville on both ends whether it’s by ball pressure or penetration.

3. Gorgui Dieng needs to be Gorgui Dieng. You get the picture right. If Louisville shows up and plays their best, they can’t lose.

Greg: The Cardinals have lived up to their billing as the tournament's overall #1 seed. They have dominated their opponents, winning by an average margin of 21.75 points per game, the closest game coming in the Sweet 16 against the Oregon Ducks. Russ Smith has been the tourney's most outstanding player thus far in my opinion and everyone on the team seems to be clicking on all cylinders. Gorgui Dieng has become a valuable player at both ends of the court, and shots cannot get by him close to the rim. Here is what the Cardinals need to do to advance to the championship game:

1. Continue to force turnovers to speed up the game. The Cardinals have averaged 16.8 forced turnovers/game in the tournament. While Oregon (12) and Duke (11) did a better job of taking care of the ball, Louisville's press was enough to force them into taking quicker shots than normal and those teams shot roughly a combined 40% from the field and only 30% from beyond the arc in Louisville wins.

2. Get Russ Smith the ball. Russ Smith has averaged 26 points per game so far in the tournament. He has been unstoppable getting to the basket. If he continues his scoring, it will be extremely difficult for Louisville to lose this game.

South Regional Champions: Michigan Wolverines

Andrew: It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Michigan emerged from the South. They were ranked #1 in February and have the nation’s best player (Trey Burke). The Wolverines have been the best offensive team in the country for most of the year and have really upped their defense over the last few weeks. Mitch McGary has been their MVP this tournament and will play a huge role again this weekend. Here are the keys for them tonight:

1. Attack the middle of the 2-3 zone. Whether it’s by slight penetration and passing or getting it to the high post, getting slightly inside the zone is key. One must not get in too deep though, because the Syracuse bigs will shut them down. I expect to see Hardaway play at the high post a lot because he will be able to turn and shoot.

2. Connect on their 3’s. Michigan has been lights out shooting the ball. They will be forced to shoot more and more from the outside due to the Syracuse defense. But if they connect as they have been, they don’t have to worry.

3. Contain James Southerland on defense. When he shoots well, the Orange offense gets to another level. Don’t give him open looks.

Greg: The surprise champion out of this region went through three top-5 seeds in the last three rounds and has looked more and more dominating as the tournament has gone on. Mitch McGary has been an absolute stud on the inside. His hustle, energy, and enthusiasm have really given the starting lineup a boost (as have his 17.5 PPG and 11.5 RPG). Some have called for McGary to use his tournament play as a jumpstart to an early exit for the NBA. I think that would be a mistake. Regardless, he has been the main catalyst for Michigan's success in the tourney so far. Here's what they need to do to beat Syracuse:

1. Move the ball by passing it, not always with penetration. If they learned anything from watching Indiana play the Syracuse zone they should have learned that the best way to attack is not to over-dribble and rush passes. They need to insert Glenn Robinson III/Tim Hardaway into the high post and allow them the opportunity to shoot jumpshots or pass. The lineup I think should be used the least in this game is the one in which Albrecht and Burke play side by side.

2. Shoot the 3 well. No one has done this well against Syracuse thus far in the tournament as they have held their opponents to a combined 16.1% from beyond the 3-point line. If the Wolverines do this well, they will be able to stretch the zone and challenge them inside.

3. Let Mitch McGary go wild. McGary has been as big a part of the Wolverines' success this postseason as any other player on the team. If he is able and encouraged to be active by the play of his teammates, the Wolverines have a great chance.

East Regional Champions: Syracuse Orange

Andrew: Syracuse has gotten here with great defense and balanced scoring. They are getting contributions from everybody on one of the two ends or both. Michael Carter-Williams has been one of the best players in the postseason. Their length in the zone has turned great scoring teams into shells of themselves (Indiana and Marquette). These are specific keys however:

1. Keep up the defense. If they play defense like they did last weekend, I see them beating both Michigan and their opponent on Monday. If that level drops, they could go home earlier than desired.

2. Share the ball. Carter-Williams leads them in assists, but they all need to be unselfish and get open looks. CJ Fair and James Southerland must show up.

3. Close out on shooters. Michigan has been hot from the perimeter in this tourney so they better apply pressure. Make them drive and try to beat you inside.

Greg: As I mentioned above with the Orangemen's defense, it has been stifling thus far in the tournament. This, along with the play of Michael Carter-Williams, have been the two biggest driving forces in their success. It really doesn't matter who they play, those two things will either be what propels them to the championship, or not. If they play great defense, they are still prone to long droughts on the offensive end though, which could allow teams to get back in the game if they do not have enough offensive flow. Here are the keys to the Orange winning:

1. Continue their stifling defense. The Orangemen need to continue holding their opponents to a low 3-point FG%. That will be the main way Michigan will try to beat them, because it is what the Wolverines do best. If Syracuse keeps this up, it will be a great indicator for their chances to win.

2. Rebound the ball well off of Michigan's misses. Baye Keita and Dionte Christmas will be key in this game. They have to negate McGary and Jordan Morgan's abilities on the boards. If Michigan does not shoot well, as Syracuse has forced opponents to do thus far, these two big men must corral the rebounds.

3. Get Michael Carter-Williams going. He has been the main reason the Orange have gotten this far. With the exception of the game against Cal, Syracuse has not struggled on offense much in the tournament, and Carter-Williams is the reason why. He needs to continue to shoot well from 3, and attack the basket with success.

What I Want to Happen

Andrew: I am a Big Ten guy so I clearly want Michigan to win. I also want Wichita State to win so it provides the Wolverines with the easiest path. At the same time, I enjoy good basketball and would love to see Michigan and Louisville square off. The Louisville guards vs. Burke and company would be amazing to watch.

Greg: I think another Louisville/Syracuse matchup in the final would be boring for the National Championship, so my hope is for a more entertaining game between Louisville and Michigan. Louisville may not make it, and I think it'd be fantastic to have Wichita State in the final game as a storyline. They played a similar pressure based team in VCU earlier this season and came out with a 53-51 victory. The game could shape up very similarly.

What I Think will Happen:

Andrew: I’ll pick the toughest game first… I do think Michigan will solve the Syracuse zone and make it to the Championship Game. I’ve been ultra-impressed with them over the last two weekends and I think that high level continues. I believe Louisville will pass the test as well. I just think they have too much going for them and will ultimately overwhelm Wichita State. They are the better team after all.

Greg: I think the “Dome-factor” will come into play big-time for the 3-point shooters of Michigan, and Syracuse and Louisville will end up playing for the National Championship. That will end in an anti-climactic Cardinals national championship… Rick Pitino becomes the first coach to win National Championships with two different schools, and three days after the announcement will come that he will be inducted into the College Basketball Hall of Fame.

By: The Sports Guys