Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Baseball MVP Discussion (again)


Hello, this is Andrew speaking. Once again, we're at the end of the baseball season and in disagreement about the MVP race (AL in particular) - AKA: "Trout vs. Cabrera", for the second year in a row. This year, our arguments will be made differently though. Below is Greg's AL ballot, followed by analysis. I (Andrew) will disect this ballot one at a time giving you my choice at the end. Greg is representing the "stathead" or "analyst", and I'm approaching this as the casual fan (like many of you reading this).

American League MVP 

1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Josh Donaldson
4. Chris Davis
5. Evan Longoria
6. Max Scherzer
7. Manny Machado
8. Robinson Cano
9. Dustin Pedroia
10. Yu Darvish

Greg: I can't believe we have to do this again, but here we go... Trout was more than two wins better than any other AL player, according to FanGraphs, an enormous gulf that is easily supported by simply looking at basic statistics. Trout trailed Cabrera by 10 points of OBP and 79 points of slugging, but stole 30 more bases than Cabrera, played a tougher position (and played it well while Cabrera played his poorly) and had 60 more plate appearances in which he could continue to deliver value to the Los Angeles Angels. This is an individual award, and Trout's and Cabrera's teammates are irrelevant to this discussion. Failure to accept that requires an argument from tradition, and those don't fly here.

Andrew: Let's dissect the list one at a time, starting at the bottom:

10 - Yu Darvish: Of the two pitchers you have on this list, this is the one I take issue with. Not that he didn't have a good year, but to be in the MVP discussion you must be special. The problem here is that he's in this debate over somebody like Bartolo Colon, who had a better ERA by about .2, and 5 more wins for a team he led to the playoffs.

9 - Dustin Pedroia: Can't argue too much here. He was good all year on both sides and led his team to the World Series.

8 - Robinson Cano: Again, like this selection. In fact, I'd rank him higher for sure. He's a top 5 candidate in my opinion.

7 - Manny Machado: Wouldn't be near this high on my list. He didn't have good hitting stats in really any category (that made him special) and he let his teammate Chris Davis handle all the heavy lifting. I assume he's on your list due to WAR, but that's the only stat he's high up in. He's a great young talent, but not in this class yet.

6 - Max Scherzer: Should be in this discussion because of his great season. Rightfully won the Cy Young, but that's where his awards end.

5 - Evan Longoria: Needs to cut back on the strikeouts, but overall had a solid year. He's the lone star offensively for the Rays, who tend to overachieve yearly. He deserves the credit.

4 - Chris Davis: Probably would be #2 on my list. Led the league in HR's by a wide margin and also RBI's. He led the Orioles to a great season where they were 8 games over .500.

3 - Josh Donaldson: This is the one I have issue with... For a casual fan like myself, he is a nobody. In fact, when I looked at your list the first time, I didn't know who he was, what team he was on, position, nothing. So even though his WAR was good, let's be real, this kid isn't a star yet, which is what being an MVP is all about.

2 - Miguel Cabrera: This is the true MVP here. Despite missing time due to injury, he still led the league in batting average by a large margin (also led in OBP), was second in the league in RBI's and HR's (behind Davis), had nearly as many walks (90) as strikeouts (94) - which is incredible for a power hitter - and even beat out Davis is slugging. Oh, and he led his team to the division crown.

1 - Mike Trout: Didn't have near the season he had last year in my opinion. His numbers were solid, but probably should be around 5th (or lower) in the MVP discussion. My problem with WAR (which is really the only stat he does well in), is that he led the league in that category but his team was only 78-84. That's pathetic, especially based on the fact many thought the team was talented enough to win the World Series this year. In fact, I thought they were so loaded I picked them to go that far. So in my opinion, a true MVP would make the most of that talent around him and take his team at least to the playoffs, instead of finishing 5 games below .500, and 15 games behind Cabrera's squad. He needed to do more to match Cabrera, just like he needed to last year.

By: The Sports Guys

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