NBA Playoffs - First Round

It’s been a long, grueling NBA season marked with injured stars (Rose, Bynum, Amare, Granger, Kobe, etc.), long streaks (Heat, Knicks), and some surprises (Warriors, Rockets, Lakers in a bad way). But it’s been fun and the playoffs should be exciting. Today we preview the playoffs, which starts tomorrow.

Of course, the Sports Guys will be competing throughout the playoffs. For every round, we’ll post our predictions. If we predict the series correctly, we get 2 points. If we predict the length of the series correctly, we get an additional 1 point. So without further ado, here are our predictions:

Western Conference

1 Oklahoma City vs. 8 Houston Rockets

Andrew: This is a series I desperately hoped would happen. There will be some major athleticism and scoring ability out on the court. The focus for me is all about James Harden vs. his former team that let him go. How will he play against them? How will his replacement, Kevin Martin, do in the playoffs? The problem for Houston is he can’t overcome both Durant and Westbrook, so guys like Jeremy Lin must step up.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Omer Asik vs. Kendrick Perkins/Serge Ibaka

Why would I pick this matchup with all the other talent on the floor? The inside players will be huge keys because the guards and wings on both teams love to get into the paint. Paint defense will be huge in this series.

Key Players: I’m going with under the radar guys… Chandler Parsons (ability to hit 3’s), Omer Asik (what I said above), Thabo Sefolosha (defense on Harden), Russell Westbrook (can he get others involved.

My Prediction: I could see OKC winning in 5 or 7, so I’ll split the difference and say 6.

Greg: This should be a very entertaining series. The Rockets are a team that shoots the 3 very often, and when they shoot it well, they are capable of beating anyone. This especially concerns me about OKC because this year they have tended to want to outscore opponents as opposed to locking them down defensively.  This matchup also has the obvious story of James Harden coming back and facing his old team with his new one. The Rockets are a young, and very talented team. I still think this series goes to OKC, but it may not be as easy as if it were against the Lakers in this round.

Individual Matchup to Watch: James Harden vs. Kevin Martin

These two will be matched up often and if Martin averages within 10 points of what Harden averages over the course of the series, OKC will win in less than 6 games.

Key Players: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin, James Harden, Jeremy Lin, Francisco Garcia

My Prediction: OKC in 6

2 San Antonio Spurs vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Andrew: When you look at the names it gets you pumped… then you realize Kobe is out, potentially Nash, and the Spurs stars have been injured much of the season also. Who will even be on the court? With that being said, the Spurs always bring it in the playoffs and the Lakers have been playing inspired basketball over the last few weeks. For me, the difference in this series is all about team basketball. The Spurs are known for playing it; the Lakers have struggled doing it all year. I know I picked LA to win it all before the season, but I think they could be going down early.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Tim Duncan vs. Paul Gasol/Dwight Howard

If there is an area that LA has an advantage, it’s inside. How much they can take advantage will determine the series.

Key Players: Steve Blake (particularly if Nash misses games), Jodie Meeks (need his scoring with Kobe out), Tony Parker (needs to be the MVP), Tiago Splitter (help Duncan contain the Laker bigs)

My Prediction: Easy call… Spurs in 5.

Greg: In one of the trendy "upset pick" series of the first round, the perpetually aging Spurs matchup against the new version of the "Twin Towers" in Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. The Lakers have not played better all year than they are now, and the Spurs have not played as poorly as they are playing now all year. This will be an intriguing matchup to me, but the bottom line is that Gregg Poppovich is a better coach than Mike D'Antoni and he will find a way to get the Spurs out of the first round.

 Individual Matchup to watch: Pau Gasol vs. Tim Duncan

Gasol and Duncan are similar players. Duncan's ability to stay out of foul trouble and get Gasol into foul trouble will go a long way to determining how quickly the Spurs dispatch the Lakers.

Key Players: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Jodie Meeks

My Prediction: SA in 6

3 Denver Nuggets vs. 6 Golden State Warriors

Andrew: This is one of the most intriguing series in the entire playoffs. Denver was supposed to be good, but they have been better than advertised. And as mentioned in our blog lead-in, Golden State has been one of the better surprises of the year.  Both teams have athletes and depth, and this series could be very fast paced. Denver is known for their dunks, Golden State is known for their 3’s (well, Curry is at least).

Individual Matchup to Watch: Steph Curry vs. Ty Lawson

These point guards are counted on for scoring and assisting. Whomever performs better may determine the outcome of the series.

Key Players: David Lee (scoring and rebounding), Harrison Barnes (must match A.I.’s energy), Kenneth Faried (has to be dominant), Andre Iguodala (has more experience than most of his teammates)

My Prediction: Similar to the Thunder, I see Denver winning in 5 or 7, so I’ll say 6.

Greg: This and the OKC/Houston series will be the most entertaining to watch in the first round of the playoffs. These are two young teams with good coaches, who have played above expectations this season. No one picked Denver to finish third in the Western Conference at the beginning of the season. Andrew and I both picked them 6th and 7th, respectively. Denver's home record will play very big in this series, as they have only lost there 3 times all season. The lack of Danilo Gallinari playing will also play big in this series. I think Golden State pulls the slight upset, though these teams are fairly well matched in my opinion.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Stephen Curry vs. Andre Iguodala

These two won't guard one another much, but Iguodala does not have a great playoff history. If he can change that, and Curry has an off series, it will help the Nuggets get to the next round.

Key Players: Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala, JaVale McGee, Stephen Curry, David Lee, Andrew Bogut

My Prediction: GS in 7

4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

Andrew: Love this series. The Clippers excel on the offensive end while the Grizzlies excel on the defensive end. Both have great big men (Griffin/Jordan and Gasol/Randolph). They also both have an NBA Champ from Detroit on their teams (Prince and Billups). It should be very even throughout. The biggest advantage I see is Chris Paul. Nobody on the court can match his ability.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Mike Conley vs. Chris Paul

How well Conley controls and keeps up with Paul will determine if Memphis can hang.

Key Players: I’ll stick with the big men that I mentioned above… Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph

My Prediction: Clippers in 7.

Greg: The Grizzlies are a bad matchup for the Clippers. The Clippers are too much a finesse, glamorous team. Memphis exposes their flaws, and Vinny Del Negro just isn't that great a coach. Memphis wins this series by grinding it out and forcing LA to be a half court team. When you look at the numbers, especially if LA is forced to play a slower tempo, Memphis looks to have an extremely favorable matchup. If the Clippers can get out and run, that will change.

Individual Matchup to watch: Zach Randolph vs. Blake Griffin

 Z-bo can dominate this matchup with his physicality. It will be up to Griffin to match it, and if he can at least come close, it will help the Clippers overall mentality and could propel them to a series win.

Key Players: Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph

My Prediction: Memphis in 6

Eastern Conference

1 Miami Heat vs. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Andrew: This is the worst matchup of the playoffs, as long as the Heat are healthy. James, Wade, and Bosh have missed games over the course of the last month, but it was likely more precautionary and getting them fresh for a playoff run. Because of that, the Bucks don’t stand a chance.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Monta Ellis vs. Dwayne Wade

Wade has been the Heat’s clutch performer and the same is true for Ellis.

Key Players: Brandon Jennings (must be dynamic), Erson Ilyasova/Mike Dunleavy (whoever guards James better be ready), Chris Bosh (when he plays well the Heat can’t lose), Ray Allen (need his outside shooting)

My Prediction: Heat sweep!

Greg: A more interesting matchup than most might think, as Monta Ellis, Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings are a pretty good scoring trio for the Bucks. However, the Heat are a much improved team from the team that won it all last year, and though they may not give their best effort in this series, it will be more than enough to get past the Bucks.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Ersan Ilyasova vs. LeBron James

If Ilyasova can match up with LeBron at all the Bucks have a chance. They have 5 players who average in double figures, and Ilyasova is probably the best player in the NBA no one has heard about. LeBron will have his way, but if he can be forced to do it on more than the normal amount of shots, Milwaukee could keep it close.

Key Players: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova

My Prediction: Heat in 5

2 New York Knicks vs. 7 Boston Celtics

Andrew: The Celtics are used to being at the top of the standings but this year has been different. They still have some good pieces, but with Allen now on Miami, and Rondo out with an injury, the Celtics don’t have the pieces they’ve had over the last five years. Still, I believe they can give ‘Melo and company a great series. Boston plays better defense than New York, but the Knicks might just have too much firepower on offense.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony

You know both will get their points, but who can end up with more?

Key Players: Jeff Green and Brandon Bass (both need to have huge series on offense), Tyson Chandler (must protect the rim), Raymond Felton (must get all of their shooters going)

My Prediction: If I was more of a man, I’d pick Boston, but I’m going with the Knicks in 7.

Greg: This could be an entertaining series, as the Celtics probably have one last gasp at a playoff run with their current roster. Their 3-point FG defense is atrocious though, and the Knicks shoot that better than anyone else in the league.

Individual Matchup to Watch: Tyson Chandler vs. Shavlick Randolph/Kevin Garnett Chandler has to dominate inside for the Knicks to be as successful as they can be.

Key Players: Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Courtney Lee

My Prediction: Knicks in 6

3 Indiana Pacers vs. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Andrew: My Pacers got into the playoffs easy but haven’t played their best recently. Similar to Memphis, Indiana is a great defensive team that can struggle to score. They must shoot it well to succeed in the playoffs. Atlanta though is similar in a couple ways. First, they haven’t been playing their best recently. Second, they can be stagnant on offense.

Individual Matchup to Watch: David West vs. Josh Smith

Josh Smith has always been tough for Indiana to guard. West will attempt to slow him down, but also challenge him on the offensive end.

Key Players: Lance Stephenson (is much improved for Indiana this year), George Hill (needs to shoot it well in the playoffs), Josh Smith (like I said above, he must dominate), Jeff Teague (has to be a bigtime playmaker)

My Prediction: Pacers in 5

Greg: This, to me, is a joke of a series. Atlanta is always in the playoffs, and is always an underachiever. Indiana is a terrible matchup for them and I think they will be extremely lucky to win one game.

Key Matchup: Paul George/Josh Smith

May not guard one another, but are around the same size, with different games and strengths. If George is able to impose his style on the series (as he has done on this team) the Pacers will walk in this series.

Key Players to Watch: George Hill, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, Jeff Teague, Josh Smith, Al Horford

My Prediction: Indiana in 4

4 Brooklyn Nets vs. 5 Chicago Bulls

Andrew: Oh how different this series would be with Derrick Rose… but let’s focus on who will play. Chicago has had a great year, and has a good record against the better teams this year. Brooklyn though is playing their best basketball yet, and Deron Williams has been great. So what gives?

Individual Matchup to Watch: Brook Lopez vs. Joakim Noah

Two of the best and most improved centers in the league will match up and determine the outcome of the series.

Key Players: Kris Humphries (needs to play tough), Joe Johnson (they need his scoring), Nate Robinson (has been great lately), Carlos Boozer (must play big)

My Prediction: Brooklyn wins barely, in 7 games.

Greg: Assuming Derrick Rose doesn't come back for the playoffs, and there's no reason to indicate that he would, the Bulls will likely lose this series.  The only thing that could hurt Brooklyn is their lack of playoff experience. None of their players have had success in the playoffs with this current team. If they get in a close series, some of the Bulls players' experience could carry them to a series win.

Key Matchup: Kirk Hinrich vs. Deron Williams

If Hinrich can force Williams into a lot of long-range 3's and poor choices, which he has been known to be susceptible to, then the Bulls have a great shot.

Key Players to Watch: Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Nate Robinson

My Prediction: Bulls in 7

Tell us what you think, and who you agree with. Enjoy the first round!

By: The Sports Guys