Championship Game Preview

Andrew: Today is the final day of college basketball. It’s really no surprise that Michigan and Louisville are the teams that made it this far. Both were around the top of the standings before the year, during the year, and will be at the end of the year. Both boast POY players and candidates, plus they each have great coaching. They also represent the two best conferences in America so that makes sense as well. Lastly, these teams have simply looked the best (eye test) in the NCAA Tournament. Should be fun.

Greg: As I sit here contemplating the end of the 2013 NCAA Tournament, I find myself thinking… After watching nearly every game of the tournament, if I were to pick two teams irrespective of results, who I thought had played the best and place them in the Championship game, I would have chosen Michigan and Louisville. This is actually a good thing, in which the two "best" teams are playing in the championship. That does not always happen (College Football National Championship this past year) and it does not make for very entertaining or even watchable television. This game should be very good, depending on how the nerves of each team are. If each team plays its best, it could be one of the best college basketball championship games ever. If they don't, it could be a game filled with missed shots and a score in the 40’s.

As we posted on Saturday, the picks competition is over with Andrew winning 52-49. Our secondary picks competition is still ongoing but Andrew is leading 17-8. Tonight’s game is 4 points so Andrew has clinched that competition also.

Below is our Championship Game preview. We included a breakdown of each team with keys to tonight’s game. Our prediction for tonight closes out the blog. And remember to not only watch the game this evening, but also be sure to watch “One Shining Moment” following it. That’s always a special highlight of the day. Enjoy!

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville needed a little luck and some unlikely heroes to escape Wichita State. Some of that I expected though. Even though Ware’s injury was tragic and heartbreaking, I think in some ways it helped Louisville. Luke Hancock has been underused all year long. I’ve said that to a lot of people. Ware’s injury gave more playing time to Hancock and look what happened. He was Louisville’s best player by far. They get beat by ten points if Luke didn’t show up. The unexpected part came from the walk-on Henderson who nailed two 3’s after they went down by 12 points. That was a bonus that completely changed the game. They can’t count on those contributions tonight though. The stars need to show up. Siva needs to do more than he did on Saturday. Russ Smith can’t go cold for ¾ of the game. Dieng can’t be in foul trouble. They need to play their best basketball with their best players. Here are the keys for tonight for the Cardinals:

Andrew: 1. Contain Trey Burke. When Burke is inefficient, Michigan is ineffective. Look at the games Michigan played against IU. He came up small down the stretch and was very inefficient in his shooting. Louisville must force him into bad shots and keep him out of the paint.

2. Neutralize Mitch McGary’s impact. McGary has been the star of March Madness in my opinion. His energy and hustle have turned Michigan into a different animal. The Louisville bigs must match his intensity and slow him down.

3. Know when to speed them up and slow them down. Michigan likes to get it out and go but they also have a tendency to rush. Louisville should get them to play overly quick by pressuring them in the full-court but can’t allow them to fast break all game long by breaking that pressure. It’s a fine line but they need to walk it correctly and wisely.

Greg: 1. Turn Michigan over. Michigan takes care of the ball better than any other team in the country. Louisville has to create turnovers in order to get more possessions so they can counter Michigan's 3-point shot.

2. Russ Smith needs to cancel out Trey Burke. If Smith can score as many points as Burke or at least keep their point totals close, Louisville's bench is better than Michigan's. Michigan's starters have more talent, but Louisville has a more talented bench.

3. Gorgui Dieng has to dominate Michigan's big men. Dieng's length could bother McGary on the offensive end, but McGary is strong enough to push Dieng around inside. If Dieng can hold his own, it will allow Louisville to play fast off of Michigan's misses and get the game up to the speed they like to play it at.

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan was able to solve the Syracuse zone just enough to win. The defense they played though was the more important part of the game though in my opinion. They contained everyone except Fair. That was smart. It was MCW and Southerland who had transformed the Orange in March. Tonight they will need to bring that same defensive intensity and still play their best on offense. Louisville will bring the pressure defensively so protecting the ball is huge. Michigan torched VCU and their pressure, but the Cardinals are a different animal. Trey Burke needs to play like he did against Kansas and not like he did on Saturday. Just like Louisville, they got some unlikely help that can’t be counted on tonight. Here are some other keys to the game for the Wolverines:

Andrew: 1. Keep Louisville on the perimeter. When the Cardinals get it inside, they are much tougher to defend. Siva likes to penetrate, Bohanan and Dieng can finish it, Harrell can only score in the paint, and even Russ Smith likes to drive in there. Michigan has to keep the Louisville offense outside. Smith and Hancock are the only consistent threats from out there. Keeping Siva from driving is of the utmost importance.

2. Play at a comfortable tempo. Michigan plays well when they play up-tempo. Transition offense on Saturday was huge because Syracuse couldn’t get their defense set up. But that can be dangerous against a Louisville team whose pressure can make teams play too quickly. Burke and company need to play at a pace they are comfortable with and not overly force it.

3. Connect on their 3’s. I said this was a key against Syracuse too and it was big time. They had everyone in the act on Saturday (Albrecht, LaVert, etc.). One player that didn’t get going was Stauskas and he can really transform their offense (like against Florida). If they can shoot it well, it can be the difference between them and a mediocre shooting Louisville squad.

Greg: 1. Mitch McGary needs to dominate inside and post more rebounds, more blocks, and more points than Gorgui Dieng. McGary has keyed this run for the Wolverines and he needs to continue to play at an extremely high level for them to win.

2. Trey Burke needs to be Trey Burke. Burke did not play well last game. He needs to be poised in this game, not turn the ball over, and set the overall tone for his team with solid, controlled, smart basketball decisions. If he makes good decisions, his teammates tend to make good decisions, and the Wolverines rarely turn the ball over.

3. Nick Stauskas, Tim Hardaway Jr., AND Glenn Robinson III need to score a combined 35 points. This will be a high scoring, up tempo game (at least I think it will be); Burke will get his 20 and McGary his 15, but the Wolverines need to get to at least 70 points to win. These three guys have to step up and hit shots when the Louisville press is broken.

   

What I Think will Happen:

Andrew: Even though I think Louisville is the favorite, I think Michigan will win. I believe their offense is way more consistent than Louisville’s and their defense has been great since McGary has emerged. They were more impressive to me on Saturday than Louisville was too if that means anything. They have also had that feeling surrounding them during the tournament that they were going all the way. The Big Ten deserves a champion, and Michigan better get it now in case they lose everyone to the NBA (Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, and McGary could go). They have the guards to overcome Louisville’s defense, the toughness to outwork Louisville inside, and don’t have the pressure that Louisville has to win (as the favored team). I think Michigan wins 76 – 70.

Greg: I think Michigan is a little bit better of a team because their starting 5 is better, but in the end I think that Louisville's experience will help them win the game. They back up their seed. Louisville wins 78 – 74.

By: The Sports Guys