My Really Early 2015-16 NCAA Top 25

Congratulations to the Duke Blue Devils on winning the National Championship. The final literally ended a couple minutes ago. It was a great championship game that was tight throughout. Who knew Grayson Allen would be the most important freshman for Duke in this game (well, and Tyus Jones)…

As for everyone else, March Madness was, well, madness! We had upsets, game winners, amazing individual and team performances, and tons of tension as games always went down to the wire. Some players will leave on high notes, others on low ones, and others will have extra motivation for next season. I think we’ll all remember Kentucky’s undefeated season ending this past Saturday. What a year it was though in college basketball.

But this year is done, so let’s look ahead. After all, why focus on the past when we can already look forward to the future. This early poll is… very early, which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions, coaching changes, transfers, recruiting and signings, and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in this poll, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2015-16 College Basketball Top 25

(Plus 5 More)

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2014-15 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (1) Kentucky Wildcats (38-1)

Kentucky is always a relatively unknown quantity this time of year. They are coming off a historic season and could return everyone. Obviously, that won’t happen, but who will go and who will stay? I think five players minimum will go pro and up to eight could decide to leave early. Whoever does come back will join what will most likely be another stellar class. I’ll pencil them in the top spot for now, because I’m sure they’ll be loaded yet again. This could all change if Coach Cal leaves for the NBA.

2. (15) North Carolina Tarheels (26-12)

We’re looking at another potential powerhouse team as UNC could return every single contributor barring NBA decisions. That means Paige, Meeks, Johnson (who already announced his return), Jackson, Tokoto, Britt, Berry, Pinson (who was injured most of year), and Hicks will be back and hungry as ever. Throw in some solid recruits (finalist for a couple 5-star guys) and this team could win the ACC and the NCAA Tourney.

3. (23) Michigan State Spartans (27-12)

Coming off a “surprise” Final Four birth, I love the potential for a return trip in 2015. Dawson and Trice are the key players they are losing, but I think they have plenty of guys to replace their production. Returners Clark, Ellis, Forbes, Costello, Nairn Jr., Schilling and Valentine will be a great core. Transfer Eron Harris will be a big time scorer now that he’s eligible, and freshmen Deyonta Davis and Matt McQuaid will surely contribute right away. They are also a finalist for Caleb Swanigan, a top ten recruit that could potentially join the mix. This should be the Big Ten team to beat.

4. (6) Virginia Cavaliers (30-4)

Virginia was tremendous throughout the majority of the season. An injury to Justin Anderson hurt them down the stretch however, and they exited the NCAA Tourney earlier than expected. The good news is that Virginia will bring back the entire team except Darion Atkins (who only averaged 23 minutes a game). This is also assuming nobody declares early. If this team avoids the injury bug, Tony Bennett’s crew should be exceptionally next year once again.

5. (12) Maryland Terrapins (28-7)

While Maryland snuck up on us in 2014-15, they won’t surprise anyone this time around. Melo Tremble announced that he will return to school. They also just landed stud McDonald’s All-American Diamond Stone. Combine those two with Layman, Dodd, Wiley, Nickens, and Robert Carter (GT transfer), and you got a Big Ten contender despite losing Dez Wells and backup Evan Smotrycz.

6. (10) Kansas Jayhawks (27-9)

Just like Kentucky, this team can change dramatically by the time the season rolls around. They could return everyone or lose 3-4 guys. And although they only have one commit locked in for next season (a McDonald’s All-American I might add), they are a finalist for other top players. When it’s all said and done, this will be a Top 10 team most likely.

7. (4) Duke Blue Devils (35-4)

Although the National Champs will lose Quinn Cook and likely Okafor and Winslow, they still retain a lot of talent (although losing Tyus Jones could be the one that really hurts). And as Coach K has done in recent years, he’s bringing in a terrific recruiting class that already has two McDonalds All-Americans. Adding more will only increase this ranking. As always, expect Duke to be apart of the ACC and national title race.

8. (9) Iowa State Cyclones (25-9)

Niang is returning, so ISU only loses two contributors. And you can bet on Hoiberg landing a few impact players to fill those voids (freshmen or transfers). If so, this team has the potential to unseat Kansas atop the Big 12. That’s how much I love Morris and Niang in particular.

9. (18) SMU Mustangs (27-7)

Despite losing Emmanuel Mudiay to the pro game overseas, SMU was terrific in 2014-15. They could be better this coming season with Moreira the only significant loss. With Nic Moore, Markus Kennedy, and Ben Moore back, and Keith Frazier and Semi Ojeleye eligible to play, this squad could be a power nationally.

10. (13) Oklahoma Sooners (24-11)

Oklahoma was near the top of the Big 12 standings throughout most of the season. Expect nothing to change next year as well. This is a team that only loses one contributor to graduation (Thomas), and could return everyone else (including Big 12 POY Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Ryan Spangler, and Jordan Woodard). They don’t have any stellar recruits, but they have one intriguing prospect that is a JC transfer standing 7’0 tall.

11. (5) Arizona Wildcats (34-4)

This team is going to lose talent. McConnell is graduating, Ashley and Johnson (most likely) are going pro, and there are rumors saying Hollis-Jefferson is gone too. While they still have a handful of role players there, they won’t have the same depth of top talent. However, Sean Miller is recruiting another excellent class, already headlined by four Top 100 players (two in top 30), and they remain a finalist for Ivan Rabb (#6 overall). If they land Rabb or convince RHJ to stay, they’ll be okay.

12. (NR) Indiana Hoosiers (20-14)

IU was an elite offensive team in 2014-15 and will be again next season. With no seniors and seemingly no early declarations for the draft, IU will bring back everyone and could welcome back Devin Davis from a season-ending injury. That means Ferrell, Blackmon, Perea, Williams, and others will have a chance to end better than this past season. The key will be defense, which could dramatically improve, as they just landed big man Thomas Bryant and are a finalist for stud Thon Maker. Stay tuned…

13. (NR) Purdue Boilermakers (21-13)

Purdue was great in the Big Ten going 12-6 this past season. And next year could be even better if AJ Hammons decides to return. Some say he’s gone, while others think he’ll stay. If he comes back, Jon Octeus would become the only loss on the team, which means they should still be stocked up well next season. In fact, they could end up being the darkhorse in the Big Ten title race.

14. (NR) NC State Wolfpack (22-14)

NC State made the most of their NCAA Tournament appearance knocking off #1 seeded Villanova en route to the Sweet 16. Barring any unexpected NBA decisions, they should bring back everyone except Ralston Turner. While he was their second leading scorer, they’ll still have plenty of firepower on the perimeter with Lacey and Barber, and many of their younger players show great potential.

15. (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (32-6)

After a heartbreaking loss to Kentucky, it will be a long offseason for Notre Dame. The good news is that their team should be pretty good a year from now. Grant and Connaughton are big losses, but with everyone else back this team will still be solid. Look for Auguste, Jackson, and Beachem to make big leaps in particular.

16. (20) West Virginia Mountaineers (25-10)

Bob Huggins’ team was back to being relevant in 2014-15 which was exciting to see in the Big 12. And although Juwan Staten is graduating, this is a team that played a lot of guys and will return nearly everyone but him. Devin Williams and Jevon Carter really played well down the stretch and could have huge seasons. They add a couple decent recruits as well that could contribute.

17. (2) Villanova Wildcats (33-3)

For Villanova, they had another very strong season yet early exit in March. Don’t know why they can’t turn regular season success into postseason wins. At any rate, expect Villanova to challenge yet again for a Big East title and high seed in March. They lose three key players but return everyone else from a team seeded #1 in the tourney. They add a Top 20 player in Jalen Brunson as well, so expect the talent level to remain high. Pressure will be on however for them to make a serious run this time around.

18. (NR) LSU Tigers (22-11)

All eyes will be on LSU next season as Ben Simmons, the nation’s top recruit, will lead this team. He’s joined by fellow McDonald’s All-American Antonio Blakeney, so even though Martin and Mickey are turning pro, this will be a talented team. The other good news is that all the other starters return as well, which should add up to good things for the Tigers.

19. (NR) Miami (FL) Hurricanes

The NIT Champs/Runner-Ups just missed the NCAA Tourney this season, but should be well inside the bubble next March. They’ll bring back everyone that matters (including McClellan, Rodriquez, and Jekiri), and are adding a top 100 recruit named Anthony Lawrence. Good potential here.

20. (14) Wichita State Shockers (30-5)

It’s already been a successful offseason for WSU, as they kept HC Gregg Marshall. If they also hold onto Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, this ranking in the Top 25 is justified. Losing one or more of those players could be devastating however. They will already be losing Carter and Cotton, two impact seniors from this past season. That production could be replaced by two postgrad recruits and an ESPN Top 100 player. And you know Marshall will get the most from them.

21. (NR) Cincinnati Bearcats (23-11)

After earning an 8 seed last month and performing well in the tourney, Cincy is on the rise in my mind. Every key player will return and they’ll also welcome back Mick Cronin to the sidelines. They should be improved next season and a dangerous team in the AAC. When all is said and done, ranking them at 21 could be too low.

22. (NR) Michigan Wolverines (16-16)

Michigan underperformed in most people’s opinions this season after starting the year ranked. So if LeVert returns to school, they’ll have a do-over with everyone returning. And I expect a lot of improvement in players such as Chatman, Abdur-Rahkman, Irvin, Dawkins, Doyle, and others. They are adding an intriguing prospect from Germany too, Moritz Wagner, who could end up really helping.

23. (3) Wisconsin Badgers (37-3)

Coming off the best season in Wisconsin history (that ended a few points shy of winning the whole thing), they’ll likely take a step back next year. Graduating are stars like Kaminsky, Jackson, Gasser, and Dukan. I’m expecting Sam Dekker to turn pro as well. But don’t count them out completely as they’ll return Koenig and Hayes, and I expect guys to step up (such as Vitto Brown) as they do every year. As long as Bo Ryan is still coaching, they’ll remain in the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

24. (24) Butler Bulldogs (23-11)

While I don’t think Butler can be a powerhouse, they will once again win a lot of games. While contributors Barlow and Woods move on, they return their leading scorers Dunham, Jones, and Chrabascz. That’s a nice trio to build around.

25. (NR) Oregon Ducks (26-10)

Oregon came on strong during the Pac-12 portion of the season, made the tourney, and won once before falling in a close contest to Wisconsin. And despite losing Joseph Young, they could be better in 2015-16 with nearly everyone back and two top 100 players on the way in.

Plus 5 More

26. (NR) Texas A&M (21-12)

Consider this my surprise team, as I can’t remember the last time A&M has been relevant in college basketball. Yet they were a fairly decent squad this past season, will retain all but two of their key players, and add four top 100 players. In fact, three of the recruits are ranked in the top 33 on ESPN. They are a definite sleeper in the SEC.

27. (16) Baylor Bears (24-10)

Getting beat in the first round won’t sit well for the Bears. Most of them will get another chance. They lose Chery and O’Neale to graduation but should retain the rest of the squad. They have a solid guard coming in named King McClure (sweet name) and a 7’0 JC player name Joseph Acuil (weird name). They should at least be promising. Could be ranked higher come November.

28. (NR) Florida State (17-16)

It’s been a couple years since Florida State was a good team. The wait is over. With all but a role player back from last season (excluding Thomas who was ineligible most of the season), FSU has the chance to really improve. They add a great recruiting class led by two top 30 players in Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley. I also love Xavier Rathan-Mayes who just had a great freshman year.

29. (NR) Texas Longhorns (20-14)

While Myles Turner is headed to the NBA and Jonathan Holmes is graduating, every other piece is returning. Remember, this was a Top Ten team early last season so the talent is still there. Two top 100 players join the team as well. The biggest addition however is not on the court, but along the sideline. Shaka Smart will become the next coach at Texas, a huge and very “smart” hire in my opinion. He’ll get this team to reach its potential.

T30 (7) Gonzaga Bulldogs (35-3)

Gonzaga is coming off one of their best seasons in history and just missed the Final Four. They may have missed their chance as they are losing their starting backcourt (Pangos, Bell, Wesley). The good news is that they are still loaded inside as Karnowski, Wiltjer, and Sabonis are all planning to return. If they can find any consistent perimeter options, expect this team to still dominate out west.

T30. (17) Louisville Cardinals (27-9)

Word already came out that Harrell and Rozier are turning pro. Blackshear is graduating, Anton Gill is transferring, and Chris Jones was previously dismissed from the team. So why do I still have this team ranked in my top 30? Rick Pitino. He always seems to get the most out of his teams as he did this past year with an Elite 8 appearance. Snider and Mathiang will lead the returning players, and they already have three top 100 players committed.

Previously Ranked and Considered: NIU, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, VCU

Other Teams I Considered: Vanderbilt, UCLA, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Connecticut, Memphis, Pittsburgh, UAB, Syracuse, ODU, South Carolina, California, Evansville

By: Andrew Miller