Really Early 2016-17 College Basketball Top 25

Congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats on winning the National Championship. I am still in disbelief over the last few minutes of that Championship Game, which literally just ended. The shot to tie it at the end, then the game winner… It just caps off an amazing and unpredictable season. And after some blowouts in the Final Four, it was great to see such an instant classic tonight. Hats off to both teams on a great game, postseason run, and season. These will be memories that last a lifetime.

As for everyone else, March Madness was… madness! After the crazy regular season, would you expect anything else? We had upsets, game winners, amazing individual and team performances, and tons of tension as games always went down to the wire, particularly that first weekend. Some players will leave on high notes, others on low ones, and others will have extra motivation for next season. Many called this “The Year of the Senior,” and many of those players in particular will be missed.

But this year is done; so let’s look ahead. This early poll is VERY early, which means it will change before November and the start of the season. There will be NBA decisions (to go or stay), coaching changes, transfers in and out, recruiting and signings (some very big names are still unsigned), and even injuries. These things will ultimately determine what happens in the first official poll before the season, but let’s take an early look now:

Really Early 2016-17 College Basketball Top 25

(Plus 5 More)

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from the last AP poll). 2015-16 record in the second parenthesis.

1. (19) Duke Blue Devils (25-11)

As of right now, things are looking incredible for Duke next year. Plumlee will graduate and Brandon Ingram is going pro, but the rest of the roster could return. Jefferson was granted another year by the NCAA and Grayson Allen hasn’t declared at this point. Along with those two, don’t forget about Thornton, Kennard, Jones, and Jeter who all played significant roles this season. Joining all that talent is one of the top two recruiting classes in the country, led by the top two players in the land: Giles and Tatum. Coach K will have a truly loaded roster.

2. (10) Kentucky Wildcats (27-9)

True to the norm, nobody has a clue what Kentucky’s roster will actually look like next year. Will they lose a handful of guys to the NBA or will some surprise us and return? Also, the team is still recruiting and is involved with plenty of uncommitted big names. Coach Cal has already stated that this class could be his best one ever (four McDonald’s All-Americans to date), which is pretty scary. Regardless of the outcomes of any of this, the Wildcats will be stocked full of talent and will be a legitimate title contender no matter what.

3. (6) Villanova Wildcats (35-5)

Despite winning the National Championship there are not many “pro prospects” on this roster, so I’m going to assume they only lose their two seniors Arcidiacono and Ochefu. The core of this team will still be great however, with Brunson, Booth, Bridges, Hart, and Jenkins. Fordham transfer Eric Paschall (16 ppg) will help inside immediately, as will 5-star freshman center Omari Spellman. They have a legit shot to win back-to-back titles as Florida did years ago.

4. (NR) Wisconsin Badgers (22-13)

The entire roster from this Sweet 16 team is set to return, assuming Nigel Hayes doesn’t leave early (which he shouldn’t). That makes Wisconsin a Final Four threat and the probable favorite in the Big Ten. In addition to all the returning players, newly minted HC Greg Gard says the team will try to hit the transfer market to fill out some of the roster as well. If that includes anyone of significance, look out!

5. (3) North Carolina Tarheels (33-7)

It’s tough to lose on a game winner, but the Tarheels had a great season nonetheless. Now we’ll see which underclassman they will lose. Justin Jackson is likely gone, and maybe Hicks/Meeks explore their options. But if not, we could easily see this team return to the Final Four. The only definite losses are Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson. But they have enough talent outside of those two that will allow them to overcome the departures if the others stay. The team also adds three great recruits that will help immediately.

6. (9) Xavier Musketeers (28-6)

This ranking hinges upon the status of their top players… Trevon Bluiett and Jalen Reynolds will reportedly test the NBA waters but will not hire agents. My opinion is that they are simply taking advantage of the new rules and will both return to school in the end. If so, this will be a loaded team. They will only lose two role players from a squad that ranked in the top 10 and was given a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They are adding two top-100 recruits though to replace them. The team’s accomplishments in the past year will easily be matched next season and improved upon if the stars return.

7. (1) Kansas Jayhawks (33-5)

Of all the teams in the top ten, this is the one I’m most unsure of. They lose three seniors, one of which is Perry Ellis. Selden and Greene are declaring early and hiring agents. The talented Diallo is also testing the waters, and I’m worried Frank Mason will too. And unlike Duke and Kentucky, Kansas doesn’t have an unreal recruiting class to cover all these losses. But they are involved with all of the top recruits that are uncommitted and my guess is they land some of them. Combine them with what’s left of their great team and I think they’ll be okay. In Bill Self I trust!

8. (5) Oregon Ducks (31-7)

The reigning Pac-12 champs will only lose two key frontcourt pieces, but their best big man Boucher was granted another year of eligibility. Better yet, they should still have Brooks and Dorsey (there top two players) on the perimeter. Jordan Bell and Casey Bensen are returning role players that are ready for more minutes. The recruiting class is decent and will provide depth on the bench. And knowing Dana Altman, he’ll probably try to add a transfer as he’s done in the past. They have a great chance to repeat this past season’s success.

9. (14) Indiana Hoosiers (27-8)

We all know that losing Yogi Ferrell is a massive loss; however, the other seniors won’t be missed near as much (Bielfeldt and Ziesloft). The thing to watch for in Bloomington is the NBA status of Troy Williams and Thomas Bryant. If they return (Bryant in particular), this is a Top Ten team. If they leave, they’ll slide much further down in the rankings. Remember that Blackmon and Johnson will return from injury, many other contributors return, and they have a couple impact players entering the program. Hoo Hoo Hoo, Hoosiers!

10. (17) Arizona Wildcats (25-9)

A quartet of seniors are gone, most notably Tarczewski and Anderson in the frontcourt. So how can an underperforming team that’s losing at least four contributors improve their ranking? Well… Allen, Trier (who announced his return today), Ristic, Jackson-Cartwright, and Ray Smith (injured last season) should all return, and they will be joined by an elite recruiting class. Three top players are already committed (two McDonald’s All-Americans), and the Wildcats are finalists for multiple uncommitted 5-star prospects. To put it simply, Arizona is reloading.

11. (2) Michigan State Spartans (29-6)

Let’s get the bad news out of the way: losing seniors Valentine, Forbes, and Costello will hurt badly. Deyonta Davis will surely consider leaving for the NBA early too. But Izzo is bringing in the best recruiting class he’s ever had and returns many from a deep roster. They are also in the mix to add another 5-star prospect (Josh Jackson) that is from the state of Michigan. I’ve seen Izzo do more with less.

12. (4) Virginia Cavaliers (29-8)

I think Tony Bennett’s “system” will get put to the test a little next year. The seniors they lose are big-time: Nolte, Tobey, Gill, and Brogan. However, they gain just as many top 100 recruits including McDonald’s All-American Kyle Guy. Those incoming players, along with Memphis transfer Austin Nichols will help ease the pain. There may be a lot riding on the shoulders of London Perrantes, but if he steps up as Brogdan and other seniors in the past have, they’ll still remain an elite ACC team.

13. (NR) USC Trojans (21-13)

On paper, this will be a very talented group. Reinhardt is transferring, but this team could still bring back five double-digit scorers to piece together a terrific starting lineup. Other returners and a couple impact recruits will give them a decent bench, and Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron is eligible to play this season. What to watch for here is the status of Julian Jacobs and Bennie Boatwright, who will likely look into leaving for the NBA. My guess is they return to school however.

14. (NR) Dayton Flyers (25-8)

This is going to be a scary team in the A-10. A deep team this last season will see all but one rotation player return next year. They’ll have backcourt stars, frontcourt studs, and depth off the bench. If you are looking for a mid-major team to make a March splash a year from now, Dayton is the team to bet on.

15. (10) Miami Hurricanes (27-8)

Out the door are seniors Rodriquez, McClellan, and Jekiri. That’s the core of the team in my opinion. Two very good recruits are coming in (along with a transfer that sat out last year), but I still think this squad takes a small step back next year.

16. (8) West Virginia Mountaineers (26-9)

The Mountaineers were a very deep squad, so they should be able to overcome losing senior Holton and star Jaysean Paige. Devin Williams will be a big loss however, as they lacked depth inside behind him. The good news is that Huggins will develop the players that do come back and there are about 6-7 good ones left.

17. (16) Louisville Cardinals (23-8)

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Louisville at the moment, especially considering they could be punished even more for the prostitution scandal. But in terms of basketball, Pitino continues to maximize talent and get the job done. They surprised me this past season by how good they were, so I can’t doubt them again. As always, Pitino will overcome any losses through player development and a couple key additions. They’ll be another Cardinal team that nobody will enjoy playing. What could alter this ranking is if they lose Onuaku, who has initially declared for the draft without an agent.

18. (NR) Michigan Wolverines (23-13)

Michigan’s losses include LaVert and Albrecht, both of whom rarely played this season due to injury, and Doyle, who would have entered next season third on the depth chart at center. So that means nearly all players from the roster that made the Big Ten semis and won a game in the NCAA Tourney return. Some decent recruits will add depth, and this should be a very good team next season.

19. (NR) St. Mary’s Gaels (29-6)

The Gaels felt they were deserving of a NCAA birth. After all, they were first in the WCC over Gonzaga (who made the Sweet 16). The good news for them is that they return everyone, as they had no seniors. Three decent recruits join the party as well, which makes this a very solid team out west.

20. (NR) Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-8)

For a mid-major program, Gonzaga is set to lose a lot of talent. Wiltjer is gone, as is Dranginis and McClellan. Big man Sabonis will likely go pro early, and Karnowski will be gone too unless he is granted another year coming off of injury. However, the team is gaining the eligibility of two great transfers, Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington) and Johnathan Williams (Missouri). Both of them were the best players on their squads before leaving. The team is also adding McDonalds All-American Zach Collins and another top 100 recruit. Three international prospects join the team too. Add that to the expected development Perkins, Melson, Edwards, and Alberts, there is plenty of talent left to win the WCC and make a postseason run.

21. (20) Seton Hall Pirates (25-9)

This team was supposed to just lose bench player Derrick Gordon, but it looks as if Isaiah Whitehead will be gone now too (NBA). Too bad, because they would have returned their entire starting lineup had Whitehead stayed. The good news though is that everyone else returns and they add two good recruits. They’ll still be a solid Big East team as they were this past year.

22. (NR) Pittsburgh Panthers (21-12)

Lots of experience potentially returns for Pitt (only losing one key player), however they lost Head Coach Jamie Dixon too. It’s tough to rank this team due to that loss. Kevin Stallings (Vanderbilt) takes over and will have a great roster to work with, one that should easily finish in the top tier of the ACC next season. However, his Vanderbilt teams have recently underperformed, so that worries me a little.

23. (NR) UCLA Bruins (15-17)

The Bruins were an underachieving team this past season, no doubt. But in the non-conference, they had some great wins and actually crept into the Top 25 on multiple occasions. Their collapse in the Pac-12 came as a shock to everyone as their roster had a lot of talent. Next year’s team won’t fade however, as every contributor except Parker returns (barring any unforeseen NBA declarations). They will add three top 100 players as well, and two of those recruits actually played in the McDonald’s All-American game including young star Lonzo Ball. This will be the most talent Steve Alford has ever had and he better take advantage.

24. (NR) Butler Bulldogs (22-11)

The team will miss Jones and Dunham without question, but a core four return: Lewis, Martin, Chrabascz, and Wideman. They also add a GW transfer in Kethan Savage that will likely be one of their top scorers. Rumors are out there already that they are a possible destination for Spike Albrecht, who is transferring from Michigan. Seems like they will be a tough Bulldog team once more no matter what.

25. (NR) Syracuse Orange (23-14)

This ranking may seem low for a Final Four team, but it also could be too high depending on early entries. That’s why I’m cautious in my evaluation here. They lose Cooney and Gbinije, which are significant departures, but they should retain a core of Richardson, Roberson, Lydon, Howard, and Coleman. They also add a great guard in Tyus Battle and a couple other decent players. We’ll see what happens.

Plus 5 More

26. (NR) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-12)

Zach Auguste graduates and Demetrius Jackson declared for the NBA. The rest of the roster returns though, which means they will avoid falling apart. If they land a major recruit this spring or add some graduate transfers, this could increase their ranking come November.

27. (NR) Texas Longhorns (20-13)

Five seniors are gone and Isaiah Taylor may consider leaving. Clearly those losses are tough. However, the team was very deep, the recruiting class is good, and the team figures to add impact players in the months to come. In fact, they are a finalist for the #1 center in the nation, and they already claim to be active on the transfer market. With Shaka Smart in control, I think they’ll be about the same as this year.

28. (NR) Virginia Tech Hokies (20-15)

Like many of the middle ACC teams next year, this is a squad on the rise. Buzz Williams is getting his team to play better and better with each passing day and he’ll have back his entire lineup to improve upon a 7^th place finish in the conference.

29. (7) Oklahoma Sooners (29-8)

This Final Four team is losing the heart and soul of their squad in Spangler, Hield, and Cousins. Although they have a few impact players coming in to join Woodard, Lattin, and some high upside bench players, it is not enough to keep them from falling out of Big 12 contention.

30. (18) Maryland Terrapins (27-9)

We know Sulaimon and Layman will graduate, but the key to next year will be retaining their young stars. I’m talking specifically about Trimble, Stone, and Carter. If they come back, this will be a very dangerous team again and they will jump WAY up in the rankings. If they leave, the Terrapins become a middle level team in the Big Ten, and this ranking may be too generous. Stone actually declared today, but I’m unsure of his agent status though. No word on the others. We’ll see…

Previously Ranked and Considered: Utah, Texas A&M, Iowa State, California, Purdue, Baylor, SMU, Iowa

Other Teams I Considered: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Houston, Marquette, Monmouth, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Florida State

By: Andrew Miller