If you are a fan of college hoops, you already know about "Joey Brackets." If not, Joe Lunardi is ESPN's expert on college basketball and specifically the NCAA Tournament. Throughout the year he predicts the bracket as if he were the Tournament Committee, and at this time of the year he is doing it quite frequently.
Although this site will be doing the same thing from time to time, today I wanted to analyze his recent prediction and point out some potential matchups. It's always fun to look at another's prediction and compare. Here is the link to his bracket that came out today: http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
First let's analyze the seeds. As far as the one seeds go, I have no issue with them. I do question Duke as the higher 1-seed over Miami, but when you think about the non-conference, I guess it makes sense.
With Arizona's loss this Saturday at home to Cal, I don't think they should be a 2-seed. A team like Michigan State should easily be seeded in front of them. Not only does MSU look like the better team, but they have a much better resume since they play in the Big Ten. I also take into account that Arizona actually should have another loss since the ref's blew it in their game against Colorado. And if not the Spartans, then put Kansas on the two line after their big win last night. Anyone but Arizona!
Another small change I'd make is switch Butler and New Mexico (make Butler a 3 and UNM a 4). I also hate Oregon as a 5 seed given how they have played recently. The only saving grace for the Ducks though is that these losses have happened since losing their great point guard, Dominic Artis, to an injury. So if he's back in March the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt due to this.
In terms of teams seeded too low, an 8 seed for Wichita State seems awfully low considering Creighton got a 6. They are essentially even except the Shockers beat the Bluejays. I feel like the Big 12 is underrated as a whole (Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor). Although there really isn't too much evidence why they should be moved up either.
When looking at his bubble teams, I actually don't have one single issue. The only one I'd consider adding is Villanova because of some nice wins, but I don't really believe they are better than St. Mary's (a team without signature wins that was barely in the field). A team he doesn't mention that I believe can make noise is Iowa. They have had it rough early in the Big Ten season, but with an easier slate the rest of the way, they can get to 9-9 in the Big Ten or even 10-8. Along with a non-conference win over Iowa State, they could sneak in for sure. But they have to close well to make that happen.
Now assuming this was the final bracket, there are some amazing matchups...
In the Midwest, I think every game except Indiana's first one should be great. Even Gonzaga has a test as the two seed (Long Beach State). I would love to see VCU and Kentucky play in their first game, and that winner taking on Indiana would be a great test for the Hoosiers. Indiana played them both in last year's tourney in fact. There would be a chance that Louisville and Indiana would meet for a birth in the Final Four on the line. These two were the preseason 1 and 2 teams in the nation and they are ranked number 1 in offense and defense respectively. What a matchup.
In the East, there aren't as many great matchups initially, although Butler vs. Wisconsin would be a fantastic game to get to the Sweet 16. Then, the winner of that taking on Duke would be entertaining. Michigan State and Syracuse would be just as good in the lower half of the region. Any of those teams could then advance to the Final Four.
In the South, Stephen F. Austin and their gaudy record would have a chance for an upset against Georgetown, a team that seems to always struggle in the tourney. But the battle for the Final Four between Michigan, Florida, and Kansas would be epic. No clue what would happen there.
In the West, which is by far the weakest bracket, it was just be a messy battle to see who would advance to Atlanta. I think teams seeded 1-9 would all have a shot to win this region. Miami would be the favorite, but Ohio State as the four seed actually might be the best team here. UNLV as the 8 seed could be the most talented though, and they will be playing closer to home than many of the top seeds. It would be very interesting.
So there is my analysis of Lunardi's latest edition of Bracketology. Now that football is over, college basketball gets our full attention until March Madness ends. I hope you are ready...
By: Andrew Miller
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