Friday, February 8, 2013

The Sports Guys' NFL QB List

Top QB’s Pay Scale


As the issue of Joe Flacco’s contract continues to be discussed around the country, Andrew and I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the current NFL QB’s salaries. Instead of ranking them top to bottom just in number, we thought it would be fun to rank the QBs in the NFL based on what WE would pay them in salary.

I have chosen to give you the extensive list of QB’s below and what their 2013 (next season) salary will be. I have also placed in parentheses after their salary their rank in Total QBR (what I believe to be the most accurate stat for measuring a QB’s total ability) for last season, and how many Super Bowls they have won. I would like to include Pro Bowl selections as well, but that stat may not be important in a few years so I am omitting it.

In the second line below their names I have said whether I believe their current salaries are warranted, and if not, what I think their current salary should be. As you can see from this list- the inequity of $ among QB’s is quite staggering. For example, who would have thought, that based on talent and production Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Philip Rivers would all be paid more than Drew Brees; or that Russell Wilson, an NFC Pro Bowl QB and nearly an NFC Championship game QB, would be the lowest paid starting Quarterback in the entire NFL.
-All salary information obtained via Spotrac.com and is informational in use only.

Top Paid QB's (in 2013):

1.Peyton Manning - $20MM (1,1)
Worth his contract. Most MVP’s in league history, and I believe has been to the playoffs 12 straight seasons. Has won a Super Bowl, and played in another.
2.Tom Brady - $18MM (2,3)
Worth his contract. Won 3 super Bowls, is consistently among the top 3 QB’s in the league in every statistical category.
3.Michael Vick - $15.5MM (26,0)
Not worth his contract under this system. He might be in Chip Kelly’s offense, but as it stands right now I’d pay him no more than $6.5MM based on what he can do (Greg).
4.Eli Manning - $13MM (10,2)
Tough Call, but I say worth the contract. Eli regressed a little bit this season, as did the Giants, but he has won two Super Bowls and there are very few QB’s you’d rather have leading your offense.
4.Carson Palmer - $13MM (29,0)
Not worth his contract. Not even close. Reminds me of Jeff George, and that’s not a compliment. I’d pay him $3.5MM to be an adequate and experienced backup quarterback (Greg).
6. Matthew Stafford - $12.5MM (15,0)
Not worth his contract. Has been to the playoffs once. Really took a step back this season and did not play very well. Has big upside though if he can make better decisions. I’d pay him $7.5MM (Greg).
7.Philip Rivers - $12MM (31,0)
Not worth his contract. Rivers had a horrendous season and is almost solely responsible for San Deigo not competing for the playoffs this year. He has been to the playoffs in the past, but I’d only pay him $5.5MM (Greg).
8.Ben Roethlisberger - $11.6MM (12,2)
Worth his contract. Is durable for the most part, has won 2 super bowls and is the type of franchise QB you’d like now that his stupid decisions are behind him. A change in OC last year hurt his numbers.
9. Tony Romo - $11.5MM (13,0)
Tough call on Romo. Not worth his contract. Is an above average league QB, but consistently falls short of the playoffs and has at least one game each season in which he gives his team Zero chance to win. I’d pay him $7.0MM (Greg).
10.Ryan Fitzpatrick - $10.45MM (27,0)
Not worth his contract. Doesn’t even have the temporary success that Palmer had in Cincinnati. He’s a backup QB in this league and I’d pay him $2.0MM (Greg).
11.Matt Ryan - $10M (4,0)
Matty Ice is worth his contract, and maybe a little bit more. Really stepped up his game this year and grew as a QB. Still fell short in the playoffs, but is on the rise and is someone you want to lead your offense.
12.Drew Brees - $9.75MM (9,1)
Worth his contract. Though I have not been a big Brees fan during this bountygate scandal he has won a super bowl, and his team beat Peyton Manning to do it. I’d pay him $16.5MM (Greg).
13.Aaron Rodgers - $9.25MM (5,1)
Worth it, probably worth double. As Stephen A. Smith says, “He is one BAD MAN”. He’s probably been the best QB in the league over the last 5 years and if you are picking a QB to start a franchise, he’s probably a near unanimous pick. I’d pay him $19MM (Greg).
14.Sam Bradford - $9MM (21,0)
Not worth it. Sam needs to improve and is not worth near this amount. I’d pay him $4.5MM (Greg).
14.Kevin Kolb - $9MM (Not rated,0)
Kolb needs to be released immediately and is not worth his contract. I’d pay him the league minimum. Look for Alex Smith to play here.
16.Jay Cutler - $8.47MM (20,0)
I watch Jay a lot, and though I’d like to say he’s worth this contract, he is not. I’d pay him $5.75MM because he can play like he’s worth 20MM at times, but a majority of the time he’s slightly worse than the league average, with the ability to be very good (Greg).
17.Josh Freeman - $8.43MM (18,0)
Freeman is a lot like Cutler, in that he can be very good, but he can also be very, very bad. I’d pay him slightly more than Cutler because he’s a little bit bigger and slightly younger. $5.95MM (Greg).
18.Mark Sanchez - $8.25MM (36,0)
Sanchez needs to pick another profession, but needs to be careful who he tells, because they might intercept it. He is not worth this contract, and is slightly more useful than Kevin Kolb. I’d pay him $500,000 (Greg).
19.Matt Cassel - $7.5MM (32,0)
Cassel, not worth it. I don’t really have anything positive or negative to say about him. He’s a decent backup who had one good season and got lucky that an executive from his former team wanted to pay him. I’d pay him $1.5M (Greg).
20.Matt Schaub - $7.25MM (14,0)
Worth it. He’s being paid about what I think he should be paid. Not great, not flashy, but solid.
21.Andrew Luck - $4.02MM (11,0)
Worth it. Took a 2-14 team and led them to an 11-5 record. Future is bright. I’d pay him $12.5MM (Greg).
22.Jake Locker - $3.15MM (24,0)
Worth his contract. He’s locked in right about where he should be.
23.Blaine Gabbert - $2.7MM (30,0)
A lot like Kevin Kolb. He’s at best a backup QB. I’d pay him $501,000 just because I don’t want to pay him less than Sanchez (Greg).
24.Cam Newton - $2.38MM (16,0)
Definitely worth his contract and probably a bit more. Worth about what Tony Romo is because I don’t think he’ll ever have playoff success because he’s too self-centered. I’d pay him $6.95MM (Greg).
25.Robert Griffin III - $1.34MM (6,0)
Griffin is obviously worth his contract. He’s worth quite a bit more, but what prevents me from giving him more is his fragility. If I didn’t have to pay a backup to play 3-4 games every year I’d pay him more. He gets $10M (Greg).
26.Christian Ponder - $1.298MM (17,0)
Ponder is a league average QB, but it’s obvious the Vikings need him. I think he’s right in line with Jake Locker in that $3.15MM range (Greg).
27.Brandon Weeden - $757,436 (35,0)
Is really in the mold of a Joe Flacco, but stuck on a team that isn’t quite as good. I think eventually he can be pretty good but will struggle a bit. I’d pay him about $4.0MM (Greg).
28.Andy Dalton - $749,018 (22,0)
Dalton has led his team to the playoffs two years in a row, but has lost in the first round 2 years in a row. He’s a bit too cautious in the playoffs but is an above average league QB. I’d pay him $9MM (Greg).
29.Colin Kaepernick - $740,844 (3,0)
Tough call here…just kidding. I was not on board with Kaepernick at first, but he has won me over. Because he’s more durable and plays more without being a primary ballcarrier I will pay him slightly more than RGIII. $10.5MM (Greg).
30.Ryan Tannehill - $480,000 base + $485,841 bonus (19,0)
Tannehill is slightly better than Weeden because he’s younger, has a better defense, and made better decisions consistently. I’d pay him $4.5MM (Greg).
31.Russell Wilson - $480,000 (8,0)
Wilson is one of my favorite players in the league. He’s a perfect blend of the old and the new, with a little bit of Drew Brees thrown in just for fun. I’d pay him $13MM (Greg).
32.Joe Flacco - No contract (25,1)
The thing that really has saved Flacco in this is that he performed on an historic level in the playoffs and won a super bowl. He had a less than stellar regular season, as you can see in his Total QBR rating, which should weigh heavily on him. He’s not an elite QB, but he has won a Super Bowl. I’d pay him somewhere right above Matt Ryan, because they are very similar to me. Had Ryan been on the Ravens this season I think he’d have done about the same thing in the postseason, and they’d have been better in the regular season. I think $10MM/year is right for him (Greg).
So now here is our take:

Greg’s List of QB’s:


1.Peyton Manning (20MM)
2.Aaron Rodgers (19MM)
3.Tom Brady (18MM)
4.Drew Brees (16.5MM)
5.Eli Manning (13MM)
5.Russell Wilson (13MM)
7. Andrew Luck (12.5MM)
8.Ben Roethlisberger (11.6MM)
9. Colin Kaepernick (10.5MM)
10. Robert Griffin III (10MM)
10.Matt Ryan (10MM)
10.Joe Flacco (10MM)
13.Andy Dalton (9MM)
14.Matthew Stafford (7.5MM)
15.Matt Schaub (7.25MM)
16.Tony Romo (7MM)
17.Cam Newton (6.95MM)
18.Michael Vick (6.5MM)
19.Josh Freeman (5.95MM)
20.Jay Cutler (5.75MM)
21.Philip Rivers (5.5MM)
22.Sam Bradford (4.5MM)
22.Ryan Tannehill (4.5MM)
24.Brandon Weeden (4MM)
25.Carson Palmer (3.5MM)
26.Jake Locker (3.15MM)
26.Christian Ponder (3.15MM)
28.Ryan Fitzpatrick (2MM)
29.Matt Cassel (1.5MM)
30.Blaine Gabbert ($501,000)
31.Mark Sanchez ($500,000)
32.Kevin Kolb ($435,000)
My numbers overall may seem a little bit low, but it is because, though I value the QB position, you need financial flexibility to build a great team, and there are very few great QB’s in the league today. If you have one, you can pay them big money, but if you don’t then you should not overpay for a QB who is league average or around it (Greg).

Andrew's List of QB's:

For my list, I pretended as if every quarterback in the league was a free agent open to any team. Then I ranked the quarterbacks in order of what I'd pay them. I excluded exact numbers, but I did give you some commentary as to why I think like I do.

1. Aaron Rodgers - Arguably the best QB in the league right now and is still relatively young compared to his challengers. I'd lock him up long term.

2. Tom Brady - Is nearing the end, but unlike Manning, he knows how to win in the playoffs. I wouldn't sign him to a longterm deal, but I'd pay him very nicely for 2-3 years.

3. Peyton Manning - I'd only give Manning 1 year and try to win now. He struggles in the playoffs and I see a physical drop-off since his injury.

4. Eli Manning - Some may think this is too high, but he's a great QB, in his prime, that has excelled in the postseason (2 Super Bowls)... I'd lock him up for quite a while.

5. Drew Brees - Although I think he can be overused, he's been great with the Saints and I'd pay him big. It would be similar to Brady in the sense that I'd pay him big for around 3 years.

6. Matt Ryan - If not for a slight dip at the end of the year, Ryan would have won the MVP this year. He finally got over the hurdle of winning a playoff game, but I want to see him make the next step before putting him higher on the list. I'd lock him up to a nice long-term deal though.

7. Andrew Luck - He has all the tools to be the best QB in the league, and it's only a matter of time. I'd give him a long-term contract and then some.

8. Robert Griffin III - The same thing I said about Luck applies here, but I'd pay him just a little less.

9. Ben Roethlisberger - I agree with Greg on what he said at the top about Big Ben.

9. Joe Flacco - He earned his Super Bowl ring and MVP. Although his upside isn't as high as the guys above him, he should now be considered a great quarterback. I'd give him a contract very similar to Ben.

11. Matthew Stafford - Just like Brees, Stafford is overused, but he's been very good when healthy. I'd be reluctant to overpay him and give him too long of a deal due to his injury history.

12. Tony Romo - The last two years he's been one of the best in the league. There is a negative stigma about him though, but I'd look past it.

13. Colin Kaepernick - I'd lock him up for a while after his Super Bowl showing, but I wouldn't overpay him and put him up there with the best in the game quite yet.

13. Russell Wilson - He has some flaws, but he won game after game this year. He should only get better and I'd reward him with a long-term contract but not elite money.

15. Philip Rivers - Here is where I see a big drop-off, although Rivers has proven before he can be as good as nearly anyone. But it hasn't been recently.

16. Matt Schaub - His teams have been successful and improving whenever he's been healthy. He is a quarterback though that is underused (which is rare).

17. Alex Smith - We've seen him be successful before in the right system (last 2 years) so I'd base a decent contract off those performances.

18. Andy Dalton - He's been very good in his first two seasons and should only get better. I like his upside and would like a long-term contract here.

19. Tim Tebow - All he does is win. I'd reward him and he could play for my team at quarterback any day. Plus just like nearly every other player, he should only get better with experience.

20. Cam Newton - He is the anti-Tebow. He gets hype for being a great quarterback but doesn't win games. Don't get why people praise his game.

21. Jay Cutler - I'm a Bear's fan and am sick of Cutler. He's not a good leader, his attitude sucks, he plays poorly in big games, has become injury prone, and hasn't gotten teams to the playoffs often. Oh, and he turns it over nonstop.

22. Josh Freeman - Up and down like Cutler, but he is young so there is time to improve.

23. Michael Vick - Still could be great in the right system. Despite his age, his upside is still crazy high.

24. Jake Locker - His injuries worry me, but he could potentially be great.

24. Sam Bradford - See Jake Locker.

26. Christian Ponder - It was this guy, not AD, that beat the Packers in the final week and got them to the playoffs. Could be a nice investment.

27. Ryan Tannehill - Worth a long-term contract as long as it isn't for tons of money.

28. Brandon Weeden - Like his talent but don't know how great he can become.

29. Carson Palmer - Yes, he'd be one of my last choices to sign and start in the NFL. Short-term contract here for sure.

30. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colt McCoy - If the 29 guys above were signed, I'd sign these two and let them fight it out in the preseason for the starting job. I wouldn't sign either to a long-term deal though.

By: The Sports Guys

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