Very Early NBA Mock Draft

At the end of my NBA post last Wednesday, I gave a brief look at the top of the NBA draft next year. Turns out, I had a lot more discussion on that throughout the rest of the week and into this one. Plus, things have changed since then. So today, I re-evaluated the draft, and am giving you a very early 2014 Mock NBA Draft (first round only).

Please know that this is FAR from perfect, and it is impossible to predict what happens between now and then. Just in this mock, I had to predict how the NBA season turns out and guess on a possible draft order for 2014. That also included predicting the draft lottery. I then used the trades that are already in place for picks to complete the draft order, but some trades may or may not occur due to protected picks based on the team’s position. Then, I had to predict which underclassmen in college basketball turn pro, and which ones don’t (along with some international players too). Lastly, note that trades and injuries could also drastically change what happens. BUT, this is just for fun, so let’s take a look:

The Sports Guys 2014 Mock NBA Draft 1

1. Milwaukee Bucks select: Jabari Parker (SF, Duke)

The more I’ve watched college basketball, the more I’ve fallen in love with Parker. He is the most all-around player in college, and still has great upside. Milwaukee desperately needs scoring and has a need at SF long-term (Butler will be a free agent this summer). At this point though, I see Parker going first no matter who is drafting.

2. Philadelphia 76ers select: Andrew Wiggins (SF, Kansas)

Wiggins is currently 6th on my “Big Board” (and falling), but Philly will be targeting Parker/Wiggins due to the needs of their team. They have a young point guard in MCW and a big man in Noel, so getting the best wing available will be their goal. Since Parker went first in this mock, that leaves Wiggins for Philly.

3. Sacramento Kings select: Julius Randle (PF, Kentucky)

The Kings would have a very tough decision at this point. They too, would love Parker/Wiggins, but they’d be forced here to decide between taking a point guard or Randle. While they have needs at both spots, I think they have a couple of capable PG’s already (Thomas/Vasquez, although both will be restricted free agents this summer), so I see Randle being the selection. They struck out in 2012 with Thomas Robinson, so Randle could be that PF they dreamed about pairing with Cousins inside. They would be a physically dominant frontline by the way.

4. Orlando Magic select: Dante Exum (PG/SG, Australia)

I’ve continued to debate Smart vs. Exum as the top point guard, and I believe the Magic would love either guy to put with Oladipo. But by the time the draft rolls around, I think Exum will beat Smart out due to his versatility and massive upside. He will “wow” teams at workouts and his fit with the Magic is perfect.

5. Boston Celtics select: Marcus Smart (PG, Oklahoma State)

The Celtics need offense, and I think Smart can help them out. His jump shot has improved, yet he still remains a great defender and passer. His leadership makes him unique, and he can be groomed by Rondo and replace him if Rondo is traded or leaves via free agency in 2015.

6. Phoenix Suns select: Gary Harris (SG, Michigan State)

I actually hate this spot for Phoenix. The remaining star of the draft is Joel Embiid, but with Alex Len chosen last year, I doubt they do that. That means they take their favorite wing, which could be Hood, Young, Selden, or Harris (as I see it now). I went with Harris because he is the best all-around player. He is a great athlete, very capable on defense, and has proven to be a reliable shooter.

NOTE: If it really did turn out like this, I’d look to trade the pick and move down a little since there isn’t a true drop-off with some of these wing players. In this mock, Cleveland would be a great trade partner who would love to trade up for Embiid. Something like the 10^th pick and Tyler Zeller for #6 would be enticing for both sides in my opinion. The Suns could still find a very quality wing at that point and Cleveland could get Embiid, which would be huge for that franchise.

7. Utah Jazz select: James Young (SG/SF, Kentucky)

Similar to the Suns, this spot isn’t ideal for them, and I’d be open to a trade. But Young is the pick assuming they make a selection here. He’d be a nice perimeter player to round off the young starting five (Burke, Hayward, Young, Favors, Kanter), and would be a great complimentary scorer. Plus, they lose Jefferson, Rush, and Williams to free agency, which opens up a huge hole at that wing position.

8. Toronto Raptors select: Joel Embiid (C, Kansas)

The Raptors just need to continue acquiring talent. I like Valanciunas (who is a young player starting at center for them now), but they couldn’t pass on a talent like Embiid. In fact, maybe they could learn to play together like Drummond/Monroe do in Detroit. Embiid at #8 would be an absolute steal, especially considering he’s good enough to go #2 overall. If they can’t resign Rudy Gay though, they could go with a wing like Rodney Hood.

9. Denver Nuggets (from New York) select: Dario Saric (SF/PF, Croatia)

Denver is a team that is solid at every position, but lacks a star. In this draft, I see them taking a player, wherever they are drafting, that could become one. Saric is regarded as one of the brightest young international stars in the world. He is very versatile and could fit well with the Nuggets.

10. Cleveland Cavaliers select: Willie Cauley-Stein (C, Kentucky)

The Cavs need a center since Bynum is clearly not the answer. There is a big drop-off, however, after Embiid, which is why I mentioned trading up. But at this spot, Cauley-Stein probably offers the most upside and can at least be a defensive pest immediately (had nine blocks in a game the other night).

11. Minnesota Timberwolves select: Rodney Hood (SF, Duke)

Getting Hood at #11 could end up being a huge bargain. He has emerged at Duke this year as a legit star alongside Parker, and he is still improving. He is a player that can mix it up inside and outside, and would be perfect for Minnesota. Doug McDermott is an intriguing option here too, due to his similarities to Kevin Love who would be a great mentor.

12. Memphis Grizzlies select: Aaron Gordon (SF/PF, Arizona)

Gordon reminds me of a young Blake Griffin, and if he continues to develop, there isn’t a chance he goes this late in the first round. I have my doubts though on whether he’s strong enough to play the 4, or versatile enough to play the 3. But, Prince and Randolph are both free agents this summer, so that there could be needs at both those spots immediately. I’d draft him and figure out his best position later.

13. Los Angeles Lakers select: Andrew Harrison (PG, Kentucky)

I absolutely have no clue what the Lakers would do in this spot. Nearly everybody on the roster will be a free agent next year, except for Kobe and Nash, and both of them are aging stars who aren’t locked in that long-term either (Kobe just got a 2-year deal, Nash done in 2015). They will clearly be active in the free agent market, and it’s unclear on who they will target to pair with Kobe. So with this pick, I think they take a player with a bright future, and “Calipari point guards” generally do pretty well.

14. Dallas Mavericks select: Jerami Grant (SF, Syracuse)

Grant is just scratching the surface for the Orangemen right now, but has a great NBA body and could be a starter for years in the NBA. The Mavs will have a hole at SF after this season, particularly if they can’t sign one this summer. This works well.

15. Chicago Bulls select: Wayne Selden (SG/SF, Kansas)

I loved Selden coming out of high school and he’s been pretty good for Kansas so far. I think by the end of the year, Selden will be a player that really comes on and could rise up on draft boards. If Deng and Chicago part ways (trade or free agency), this selection makes a ton of sense.

16. Chicago Bulls (from Charlotte) select: Doug McDermott (SF/PF, Creighton)

McDermott is similar to Aaron Gordon (or Anthony Bennett last year) in that I’m not sure what position he will play in the NBA. But I see him as a slightly undersized Kevin Love, a power forward that can rebound and shoot. If the Bulls played him at the 4, Doug would keep the floor spread for Derrick Rose and would give the Bulls some much needed shooting.

17. Atlanta Hawks (swap with Brooklyn) select: Mario Hezonja (SG, Croatia)

If Saric isn’t the best international prospect, it’s because this guy is. He is very young but has enormous potential. He can shoot and score with ease, and the Hawks need a future star on the wing. The only issue is that Mario may want to stay overseas a little longer before joining the roster, but that’s up for debate.

18. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn) select: Kaleb Tarczewski (C, Arizona)

Since Boston went guard with their first selection in this mock, I say they go with a big man here. Tarczewski is a big boy that is agile and has some touch. I think Brad Steven’s would continue to develop his knowledge for the game, and this selection would allow Sullinger to play the PF again.

19. Phoenix Suns (from Washington) select: Adreian Payne (PF/C, Michigan State)

With Frye and Okafor free agents this summer, Payne would give the Suns a bit more depth inside. And since I had the Suns taking Gary Harris at #6, this would keep the Spartan teammates together. More importantly, Payne would be an ideal big man that can step out and knock down a jump shot, and would give the Suns a big front line if he played alongside Len.

20. Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets (from Detroit) select: Semaj Christon (PG, Xavier)

Charlotte needs scoring and more help on the perimeter with some expected losses this summer. Christon would help in both of those areas immediately, and may have more potential upside than Kemba Walker down the road. I’ve seen mocks where he goes much higher, so this could be a steal.

21. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) select: Perry Ellis (PF, Kansas)

Assuming they hang onto Evan Turner, this would give them a young lineup of MCW, Turner, Wiggins, Ellis, and Noel. Obviously, Thaddeus Young and others would be in the mix too, but there is a lot of potential now with some of these players. Perry Ellis is also proving to be a great post-up player.

22. Orlando Magic (from Denver) select: Montrezl Harrell (PF, Louisville)

There are few players that broke out this past summer (at any level) more than Harrell. He showed development that proved he isn’t just a great athlete, but can be a great basketball player. With the Exum selection above, I think taking a big man with upside would be smart here.

23. Utah Jazz (from Golden State) select: Chris Walker (PF, Florida)

The Jazz would be wise in acquiring more depth inside behind Favors and Kanter. Now, I’ve never seen Walker play (besides recruiting videos), but I’ve heard he can be a real star. He’ll get a chance to prove it soon as he’ll be able to play for the Gators after the first semester ends this month. Will he rise or fall on draft boards?

24. Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets (from Portland) select: Glenn Robinson III (SG/SF, Michigan)

I know Charlotte may not take another guard here (since I had them doing that at #20), but Robinson’s ceiling is too high to pass up on at this point. Unless they love a big man more, I say they take the best player available here, which Robinson is.

25. Houston Rockets select: Kyle Anderson (SF, UCLA)

The Rockets could use another ball handler, especially one as versatile as Anderson, a trait Houston loves. Anderson is a guy that can do it all: score, rebound, pass, and defend. He could end up being a great “glue guy” in the NBA for long time.

26. Los Angeles Clippers select: Mitch McGary (PF/C, Michigan)

The Clippers could use a big man to relieve Jordan and Griffin inside during games, especially since Jamison, Hollins, and Mullens will all be free agents this summer. McGary has a high motor with a lot of skill. In fact, there is a good chance he gets selected much higher than this once he fully recovers physically this season (back issues). Remember his NCAA tournament run last year?

27. Oklahoma City Thunder select: Aaron Harrison (SG, Kentucky)

Harrison is quietly getting better at Kentucky and will continue to shine throughout the season. Thabo Sefolosha will be a free agent this year, and Harrison would give them a backup in case he can’t be resigned and Lamb moves into the starting lineup.

28. San Antonio Spurs select: James Michael McAdoo (PF, North Carolina)

Most people expected McAdoo to already be playing in the NBA, but he’s decided to stay in school much longer. The Spurs tend to take advantage of situations like this and Coach Pop could easily use McAdoo’s versatile skillset and blend him into the Spurs’ system. They also may need a big man here due to who they may lose this summer.

29. Miami Heat select: Cory Jefferson (PF, Baylor)

Similar to the Lakers, Miami’s offseason is a mystery at this point, with nearly everybody on the roster up for free agency. Obviously, they’ll attempt to retain the Big 3, but who knows if they can re-sign all their other role players. Jefferson reminds me of Udonis Haslem, who has been an important player for Miami. Maybe they can get the most out of Jefferson too.

30. Phoenix Suns (from Indiana) select: TJ Warren (SF, NC State)

I’m not sure if Warren will turn pro after this year or not, but he’s been lighting it up this year. I’ll add that it’s been on a bad team, but Warren has shown a lot of skill and is extremely talented. I think a team could take him in the Top 20 depending on what happens at the combine and during workouts. Phoenix would be a great fit seeing as I had them take a guard and big man already in this first round.

Ten Other First Round Options: AJ Hammons, Markel Brown, Olivier Hanlan, Shabazz Napier, PJ Hairston, CJ Fair, Dwight Powell, Jahii Carson, Alex Polythress, Isaiah Austin

Fifteen Notables Who I Think Will Stay in School: Noah Vonleh, Zach LaVine, Marcus Lee, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jordan Adams, Austin Nichols, Nick Johnson, Kasey Hill, Marcus Paige, Dakari Johnson, Sam Dekker, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Clarkson, Roscoe Smith

By: The Sports Guys