An Early 2014-15 NCAA Top 25

On Tuesday I posted the final rankings (post tourney) for the 2013-2014 season. Today, we’ll look ahead very early to next year. Obviously, this will change before the season starts. Some recruits still have to be signed (un-signed Myles Turner is #2 overall), transfers will take place in a big way, and NBA decisions still have to be made for a lot of players. But, I’ll take a stab now.

A Very Early Top 25 – 4/10/14

NOTE: Previous ranking in first parenthesis (from 2013-14 final rankings in this case).

1. (6) Arizona Wildcats

I said last year that with Brandon Ashley, Arizona was the best team in the country. So even though they missed a chance to win it all, next season could be the year for them. They will for sure lose Aaron Gordon, but Brandon Ashley’s return from injury will offset that, along with the improvement of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. They could potentially lose Nick Johnson as well, but 5-star recruit Stanley Johnson will make a major impact immediately. Everyone else is back too, so they will be great regardless of what Johnson decides.

2. (20) Duke Blue Devils

The Jabari Parker decision looms large because if he returns they will be the clear #1. But I’m assuming he leaves (along with Rodney Hood). But they’ll retain Cook, Sulaimon, Jefferson, Plumlee, and a couple of promising bench players. Then, they’ll add the top recruiting class in the country, complete with four 5-star McDonalds All-Americans. The #1 player is Jahlil Okafor, and I am so impressed with him.

3. (5) Wisconsin Badgers

Of any team that made the Final 4, Wisconsin is the one I’d bet on returning. They lose Ben Brust, and that’s it. They’ll have great guards again, a nice frontline, depth, and stars with Dekker and Kaminsky. Oh, and Bo Ryan could be the best coach in the country.

4. (7) Michigan Wolverines

NBA decisions play a big factor here. Four players are rumored to be making a decision (Stauskas, LaVert, Robinson III, McGary). I’m betting on Stauskas leaving, but the rest returning. Those other three players, combined with Albrecht, Walton, Irvin, Horford, and Top 100 recruit, will keep Michigan at, or near, the top of the Big Ten.

5. (14) North Carolina Tarheels

UNC came on strong over the last half of the year in large part because the young guys really improved. The good news for them is that they all return (outside of inconsistent James McAdoo). If that wasn’t enough, they’ll add three McDonalds All-Americans that will help them improve their shooting, defense, and depth.

6. (19) Kansas Jayhawks

Let’s start with the bad: Wiggins and Embiid are leaving. Now the good, Selden Jr. decided to stay, along with Tharpe, Ellis, Frankamp, Traylor, Mason, etc. Plus, they are adding two 5-star recruits in Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre. The bonus could come in the form of Myles Turner (second overall potential freshman) that would make them even better if he chooses KU.

7. (1) Connecticut Huskies

The defending champs maxed out all of their talent en route to a National Championship. But I love what they have next year too. Sure they lose Napier, but Ryan Boatright, Omar Calhoun, transfer Rodney Purvis (NC State), JC transfer Sam Cassell Jr., and 5-star shooting guard Daniel Hamilton will give them plenty of options at guard. Up front they lose Giffey, but they return everyone else including starters Daniels and Nolan, as well as stud backup Brimah. What could ruin this is if Boatright and Daniels go pro, then I’d bump them back.

8. (3) Kentucky Wildcats

I’ve been mentioning NBA decisions, and this team is one that will surely be affected by those. As many as 6 players could go pro by my count, or as little as 3. They could easily rise if more return than expected, but I’m not betting on it. Instead, they’ll keep a few key guys and combine them with another terrific recruiting class (four more studs). Reloading is what Coach Cal does.

9. (NR) SMU Mustangs

This isn’t a mistake; I think SMU will be dangerous. They got screwed out of a bid this year and were ranked in the Top 25 for a good chunk of conference play. They return nearly everybody, and will add the #1 ranked PG in the country that is a complete stud. They could potentially add Myles Turner, which could take them even higher than this.

10. (NR) Texas Longhorns

Like SMU, Texas was relevant this season and was ranked for a nice portion of conference play. They too return most of their roster, and will add another key piece or two. They are also a potential landing spot for Myles Turner, along with SMU and Kansas.

11. (2) Florida Gators

Gone are four seniors who meant so much to this program. But Florida was good because they had depth and a lot of guys who could play. That means that guys like Frazier, Hill, Walker, Finney-Smith return. Eli Carter (former Rutgers transfer) can play now, and potentially Damontre Harris (suspended) can too. They also add three top 100 recruits. Looks like Kentucky and Florida will again be a great matchup.

12. (9) Virginia Cavaliers

They lose key players in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, but they return the rest from a team that dominated the ACC and was a 1-seed in the tournament. Tony Bennett also plays a style that is difficult to beat.

13. (4) Wichita State Shockers

The Shockers won’t be as good next year, but they won’t be much worse either. Losing Cleanthony Early will hurt big time, but at least VanVleet, Baker, Carter, Wessel, and Cotton are coming back. And they’ll be adding some contributors via JC transfers. My guess is that they’ll remain the best mid-major in the land.

14. (NR) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga was a forgotten team for much of the year, but I doubt that’s the case a year from now. Four of their best five perimeter players are back, including the lethal combo of Pangos and Bell Jr. Inside, Przemek Karnowski will remain a force, and he’ll be joined by Kyle Wiltjer (Kentucky) and potentially an incomer named Domantas Sabonis. I like their outlook.

15. (12) Villanova Wildcats

Villanova had one of their best teams ever this past season. They only lost to a few teams en route to a Big East title and 2-seed in the tourney. The way they finished is a cause for concern, but they return seven key players from that squad. In addition, they are adding two top 100 recruits, so at the very least this will be a deep team.

16. (NR) Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma returned to relevance last year, but could be due for even more noise in 2015. Cameron Clark is the only real loss, but if the young talent on the roster keeps developing, Clark’s absence will have a minimal effect. Buddy Hield is a name to remember.

17. (NR) Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State was great at times and inconsistent at others this past season. When the offense sputters, that’s what will happen. But I think they can have a much-improved offense next season. They are adding D’Angelo Russell, a flat-out stud at guard that will give them the scorer they lacked. Temple transfer Anthony Lee is another big time addition. These players will offset the losses of Craft, Smith, and Ross. And if Scott, Thompson, Williams, McDonald, and Loving all improve, they could challenge the Wisconsin at the top of the conference.

18. (NR) VCU Rams

VCU will be led by Shaka Smart, who again chose to stay put. His will really only lose big man Juvonte Reddic. And while he’ll be missed, Smart is adding his best recruiting class ever. Maybe he can make a run to another Final 4.

19. (NR) Colorado Buffaloes

This ranking hinges on Spencer Dinwiddie. The injured point guard is deciding soon whether he’ll go pro or return to school. If he comes back, he’ll help lead this team to the NCAA Tourney once again, especially since they return everyone else. If he goes, the team can still likely make the tournament, but they won’t be ranked here.

20. (NR) Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa was ranked nearly the entire season before they fell apart down the stretch. While the loss of Marble (and even Basabe) will hurt, they were at their best last season when everyone was a contributor. And yes, they will return everyone else from that extremely deep team. I expect very similar results again.

21. (10) Louisville Cardinals

After their loss to Kentucky to end the year, Coach Pitino said it was “the end of an era.” While it’s true they’ll lose a lot in Smith, Hancock, and most likely Harrell, they’ll still have a ton of talent. Jones, Blackshear, and Rozier will lead the attack, along with a slew a quality newcomers.

22. (13) Iowa State Cyclones

Hoiberg will finally lean on some homegrown talent next season, as opposed to the transfers he always nabs. Niang, Morris, Long, Hogue, and Thomas lead the list of returners. Of course, he will add some new faces (as he always does), so they’ll remain a threat in the Big 12.

23. (NR) Illinois Fighting Illini

The inclusion of Illinois may be surprising to some, so hear me out. Last season, Illinois had a great non-conference and a strong finish. They thrived when they started playing four perimeter guys and one big. And next year on the perimeter, they’ll have Rice, Abrams, Tate, Nunn, and two transfers that averaged double digits at Oregon State and Seton Hall respectively. Inside they’ll retain Egwu, and they’ll add Leron Black, one of the best incoming power forwards in the country.

24. (NR) Oregon Ducks

Similar to Illinois, the Oregon backcourt will be loaded. Artis, Dotson, and Young already comprise a great trio. Then, they’ll add 5-star guard JaQuan Lyle. They are a little thin in the frontcourt, but guards win in college basketball in my opinion.

25. (21) Stanford Cardinal

Stanford made a surprising Sweet 16 run last month, and it’s possible they do it again a year from now. Losing Powell is a big loss, but with basically all other returning, and them adding a McDonald’s PF to take his place (Reid Travis), I think they will end up being just fine. The other newcomers are 4-star players themselves, and two players who were injured last season will return. Should be a solid squad.

Also Considered: UCLA, Syracuse, Maryland, Dayton, Michigan State, BYU, Notre Dame, Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Minnesota, San Diego State, Harvard, Utah, Memphis, UNLV, Arkansas

By: The Sports Guys