Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Andrew's Early College Basketball Top 25

Now that the NBA Draft Declaration Period has passed and the recruiting classes of most schools are complete, I wanted to take a very early look at college basketball next season. I am, after all, a massive college hoops fan (Indiana Hoosiers to be specific).

1. Indiana Hoosiers - Take note that I was the first to place them in this spot. I may not have published this post until today, but before the season ended I pegged IU as the best team in 2012-2013 before the publications followed suit. This past year they were a top fifteen team that made it to the sweet 16 before losing a close game to the champion. In fact, they seemed like the only team in the tourney capable of beating the Wildcats (which they did in December). They return the best player in the game (Zeller), the best shooter in the game (Hulls), a great scorer in Watford, defender in Oladipo, spark plug Sheehey, and bench guys Elston, Remy, and possibly Roth. Not to mention they bring in a top level recruiting class with at least three guys who will contribute immediately (Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Perea, Jeremy Hollowell).

2. Louisville Cardinals - They return most from a final four team and are the Big East favorites for sure. Peyton Siva is one of the most valuable players in the country and Behanan will emerge as a star this year. Kuric and Smith will be losses but they add back many guys who were injured a year ago: Marra, Buckles, Blackshear. If they are stay healthy, they may keep the NCAA championship trophy in state. George Mason transfer Luke Hancock should help too.

3. Kansas - I know Robinson and Taylor are gone, but they return so many other great players that helped get them to the title game. Perry Ellis is a big time recruit and Bill Self is a coach I trust. They will be the favorites again in the Big 12 and be a power on the national scene once more.

4. NC State - I was high on this team last year and they proved me right by making it to the sweet 16. Coach Gottfried did a great job with them and they return all their stars including CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown. Surprising as this may seem, they also add three McDonald's All-Americans. Yes, they are the ACC favorites... NOT Duke or Carolina.

5. Michigan - When Trey Burke decided to return Wolverine fans rejoiced (trust me, one of my best buddies is a Michigan fan). Along with Burke, Hardaway Jr. comes back to form a great 1-2 punch. Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary highlight a sparkling recruiting class that makes up for the losses of Douglass, Novak, and Smotricz. Ann Arbor could see another Big Ten title this season.

6. Ohio State - Losing Sullinger and Buford hurts badly, but Thomas chose to return which gives them a big time scorer. Aaron Craft is one of the most underrated players in the nation, not too mention an incredible defender. Some of the young talent they had hidden will shine (cough, cough...Smith Jr. and Ross) and Thad Matta will be in the thick of things once again in the Big Ten.

7. Duke - Austin Rivers is gone and Miles Plumlee graduated. But his brother Mason returned along with the rest of the contributors. Adding two great recruits to the mix will keep the Blue Devils in the national spotlight. My belief is that Coach K is the best of the best as a coach, and he will prove it again this year even with lower expectations.

8. UCLA - How can a team as bad as UCLA jump this high in the national rankings? RECRUITING. It's amazing to me that most publications have Kentucky in the top three nationally in their rankings. It was UCLA who nabbed the best class, and they return way more talent to surround them than Kentucky does. So it is UCLA who will ride their freshman Shabazz and Anderson deep into March this time around.

9. Florida - Yes, I have Florida as the top SEC team. They return more from an Elite 8 team than other contending SEC teams and have some nice talent coming in also. Patric Young should become a star this year and could hear his name near the top of next year's draft.

10. Wisconsin - I wouldn't be surprised if this is even too low for the Badgers. They lose Jordan Taylor but bring back everyone from a very good Sweet 16 team. Sam Dekker is one of the best recruits they have had in some time too. Bo Ryan's team will play at their pace, protect the ball, and shoot the lights out. Once again, this team can beat anyone in the nation.

11. Missouri - They lose their top 3 scorers but get back the rest of their team that earned a number one seed in the tourney. They also return their best player from two years ago, Laurence Bowers. They welcome in 4 transfers who could start for most teams in the nation. Yes, Frank Haith will lead a very dangerous squad in their new conference.

12. North Carolina - This team was decimated by departures more than any team in the nation other than Kentucky. But they were a deep team that will return some key players who were injured. They also welcome a top ten recruiting class and are still coached by Roy Williams.

13. Michigan State - Tom Izzo loses one of his favorite players in Draymon Green but return a lot of core pieces from one of the best national teams. Hopefully Dawson will recover well from his ACL tear. Obviously, MSU can recruit and did it again with a top ten class. They will crash the party in a loaded Big Ten this season.

14. Baylor - Their loaded frontcourt got killed by early entries but they have two more big studs coming in. Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip should provide scoring, shooting, and leadership. The may not be quite as good as last year, but they are extremely dangerous once again.

15. Arizona - After a down year, the Wildcats welcome in one of the best classes they have had in a long time. The core of Hill, Johnson, Parrom will give them some returners to lean on. In a resurgent Pac 12, they will be there in March.

16. Syracuse - They too lost a lot in the offseason, but were the deepest team in the country last year. Some great recruits will join the mix also (aka DeJuan Coleman) to give Syracuse a formidable squad. The zone will always give teams trouble and they have a coach who is one of the best in the business.

17. Kentucky - I truly don't understand why people think they are a top 3 team next year. They lost their six best players (and they only played 7). Most people forget they didn't win with freshman last year... they had Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb, and Darius Miller as half of the "starting 6" returning from the previous year. This year they have their 7th best player, sophomore-to-be Kyle Wiltjer as their best returner. Of course they had a top 3 recruiting class led by shot-blocker Noel, but this team will need leadership. NC State transfer Ryan Harrow could become very important this season. If Coach Calipari gets this team to the final four, I will be the first to admit he is more than just a great recruiter.

18. UNLV - Like I said with Wisconsin, this ranking could be too low. They were a top 15 last year for most of the year and get most of their guys back. Maybe even more important is that they added transfer Khem Birch from Pitt and just got top PF recruit Anthony Bennett to commit. Couple them with Mike Moser and you're looking at the best frontcourt in the nation.

19. Creighton - Doug McDermott is back. Do I need to say more? He proved to be one of the best players in the country and they only lost their starting point guard. This year, Creighton could be the mid-major to make a deep run.

20. Butler - Brad Stevens will return his team to the NCAA tournament this year. They are bringing in shooting, the biggest thing they lacked a season ago. That will make room for Andrew Smith and Khyle Marshall to control the interior. This is a team nobody will want to see in March.

21. San Diego State - Have you caught on to the mid-major theme yet? This is yet another team that is well coached and returns the majority of their team. As is another theme this season, they will be impacted by three transfers who can play this year. Look out for the Aztecs.

22. VCU - Everybody saw again how dangerous they are when they knocked off Wichita State last year in the NCAA tourney. They nearly toppled IU as well but fell just short. Nonetheless, Shaka Smart is the key returner that will return this team to the NCAA tourney.

23. Gonzaga - Robert Sacre is gone but this is another mid-major that will be dangerous next season. Elias Harris is a star and they also feature a top level backcourt. Remember, they nearly knocked off the Buckeyes who made the final four.

24. Minnesota - Tubby's team fell apart last season when Trevor Mbakwe got injured. But they pulled together and got runner up in the NIT. Now with Mbakwe rejoining that same team, they will make noise in the NCAA tourney this season. It's scary to think they are 6th in the Big Ten, but that just speaks of the depth in the conference.

25. Notre Dame - They weren't able to get Abromitis another year of eligibility but Scott Martin was granted another season. And they get most back from a team that placed third in the Big East. If they keep that momentum going, they could finish there once again this season.

This may all change by the time the season comes, but I think this coming season will prove extremely competitive and exciting. Anything can happen and things can change quickly. But I can't wait!

Andrew

4 comments:

  1. I agree with you that the Big 10 will be the best basketball conference in the country for the second season in a row, but I don't see Minnesota worthy of a ranking yet. I'm still rooting for Northwestern to make the NCAA tournament for the first time but it seems as though this season is going to be tough to do that, I doubt 8 teams from the Big 10 get to the tournament.
    Missouri's move to SEC should bolster their record, but it may only be a false indicator. Haith is a good coach, but I don't see them doing much out of the big 12. Florida lost their best player in Bradley Beal, but in an overall weaker conference they may just be the top dog.
    I can't see UCLA making it back right away, but as with Missouri they overall weakness of the Pac-12 might help to influence others to see them as better than they are.
    Will this be the first year the Big East gets less than 5 teams in the tournament?
    Overall not to much to say about this yet, but since Teague stayed at UK i think that provides them with the stability they need to be competetive in that conference.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Teague left UK so no leadership from him...

    Also UCLA was supposed to be good last year but had chemistry issues. They got rid of the attitude and made a run at the end of last year. I watched Shabazz and Anderson play: they are for real and UCLA will be back fast...

    Minnesota beat some great teams last year, flirted with NCAA and get them all back including Mbakwe. Yes they will be ranked off and on this season!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I swear I read that Teague was coming back...must've been before final decisions were made. My bad for coming at you with bad information.
    I disagree about UCLA, they had a good few games in the NCAA tournament, but I think they will look better than last year for most of the season, mostly because Pac-12 basketball sucks. Then will fall flat in the tournament.
    Minnesota might even improve this year, but because the rest of the Big 10 did as well I think their record will be worse this year than last year.

    ReplyDelete
  4. With then news coming in late last week that Roscoe Smith will be transferring from UCONN to UNLV, I would move UNLV even higher in my rankings. They should be very talented and can build on a successful campaign a year ago!

    ReplyDelete