The second major of the year begins today in Paris. Although this tournament doesn't mean as much to Americans (because we stink on clay), this is a very important event worldwide. It's also a stark contrast to the other events because of the surface. And it's the beginning of summer tennis, with Wimbledon a couple weeks after, then the summer hard court tournaments, Olympics, and climaxing with the US Open.
Before I break down the entire men's draw, I'll make a couple predictions on the other events. In doubles I'll go with the Bryan brothers. They struggle on clay compared to other surfaces but they are coming off a win and are always in the mix.
In Women's Singles it really is a toss up. The women's game is in a state of parity and a number of women could rise up to take the title. My prediction though is Sam Stosur. She got her first major last year and she enjoys the clay.
As for the men, I'll break down each quarter below followed by my final weekend predictions:
Novak's Quarter
In the top section of the draw you'll find top seed Novak Djokovic. He is seeking to hold all four slam trophies by winning here. He will be challenged in this section by...nobody. The other top seeds here include Tsonga, Simon, and Verdasco. Djokovic plays too well for anybody here to top him, particularly on this surface and in a five set match.
The best first round matchup in this section is young American Ryan Harrison vs. Giles Simon. It's tough luck for Ryan randomly drawing the 11 seed from France. I expect a nice fight though. Lleyton Hewitt can meet Novak in the second round which would be an entertaining early match. If only Hewitt was a decade younger, then he might stand a chance. As for the third round, I like the matchup between Simon and Wawrinka. Both guys have tremendous backhands and are even on the clay. Verdasco and Novak could meet in the fourth round which would be a highly colorful match. And that leads to Tsonga and Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Fans will be torn as they love Novak, but Tsonga is a native Frenchman. Novak will pull through though earn a spot once again in the semifinals. My dark horse in the section is Verdasco who possesses a lot of skills and is quick enough to win on clay.
Roger's Quarter
The next section is where you'll find Roger Federer. Roger wants to continue to win tournaments this year and get back to number one in the world. He needs one more week to tie Pete Sampras for most weeks at number 1. It's one of the few records Federer doesn't own. Roger's big goal this year in terms of a tourney is to win the Olympics, but the French Open would mean a lot too. He has won only one French Open and that was when Nadal got injured.
In the first round I am intrigued by Roddick and Mahut. Andy has struggled to find his game over the last year or two. Mahut is famous for his marathon with Isner a couple years ago. There won't be many breaks in this one but let's hope Roddick pulls through. The second round could see Nalbandian and Federer square off. These old rivals still could put on a show. Then if all goes right, Federer and Roddick could face off in the third round. Although it would be a headline matchup, Roger would win easy. For the best fourth round matchup I'll go to the lower half where we find Del Potro vs. Berdych. These tall, big hitting players play very similar. I like the slight upset here and am picking Del Potro. That sets up the quarterfinal matchup of Del Potro and Federer. Team Fed has won four straight matches against Del Potro without dropping a set. Clearly, I am going with Roger. My dark horse in the section is Cilic who has never realized his potential. Maybe it's his time.
Murray's Quarter
Andy Murray is often the forgotten man when it comes to the top players in the world. He sits quietly at fourth in the world and is still looking for his first major title. His draw doesn't make it easy. Ferrer, Isner, Gasquet, and Tomic lay in this section.
The first round matchup that gets my attention is James Blake vs. Youzhny. We haven't heard much from James over the last couple of years but he still has plenty in the tank. In the second round I like Haas and Dolgopolov. Haas is a classic player and Dolgopolov is anything but. The third round features up and comer Tomic taking on the section favorite Murray. Tomic has a funky game but Murray just does the same thing, but better. We could see Isner and Ferrer face off in the fourth. There is a massive difference in how those guys play. Since it's on clay, I like Ferrer there. That moves him on to face Murray in a great quarterfinal match. As is the norm, I like Murray to move on as the seeds will hold form. Ferrer won't make it easy though, and we could be in for a lengthy match there. My dark horse in this section is Gasquet. He is from France and is more skilled than most players in the world.
Nadal's Quarter
Way down at the bottom of the draw we find the favorite Rafa. To spare from extra typing, he clearly will emerge from this section. He has only lost one match at the French Open ever (and that was a fluke).
In the first round we find Sam Querrey vs. Tipsarevic. Sam has fallen off the chart after showing promise a couple years ago, but he could make things interesting in this one. In the second round, Chela and Almagro should be entertaining. These under the radar guys matchup pretty well. Things pick up in the third round as we'll watch Raonic and Monaco. Everyone is so high on Raonic right now, myself included, so I like him to pull through here. The fourth round we'll hopefully see Raonic then take on Nadal. He has the firepower to make things tough for Rafa, but it won't matter. Then potentially we'll see Nadal and Tipsarevic. Guess who wins? In terms of a dark horse, there really isn't one. Like I said, nobody stands a chance to advance here outside of Nadal.
The "Final 4" - Final Weekend
Just like most majors over the course of the last few years, the semifinals will feature the top four players in the world. Nadal and Murray will be the less talked about matchup. I would love to say it will be hard fought and long, but Nadal will most likely cruise. The tough pick is Federer and Novak. Federer spoiled Novak's perfect season last year by taking him out in the semis. And even though Novak hasn't dominated this season, I think he'll take Roger out in a tough, long match.
Of course that sets up the same matchup we saw at the Australian, Rafa vs. Djokovic. The outcome will be different however as Nadal will come through. He's too tough on clay, at this tournament, and he has figured Novak out a little just beating him a week ago. I know, a boring prediction, but most likely an accurate one. Nadal will walk away with his 7th French Open title.
Hope everyone enjoys watching over the next couple weeks, I know I will. Happy Memorial Day once again!
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