Cantor Gaming (Las Vegas bookkeeper) just launched their first NFL season projections for win totals. Andrew and I make our picks, first by stating an OVER/UNDER, and then by putting our projected win totals for each team in parentheses. Cantor's projections are listed right next to the team names. Let the debating begin!
Team: Greg Andrew
Arizona Cardinals-7- Under (5) OVER (8)
Atlanta Falcons-9- Push (9) PUSH (9)
Baltimore Ravens-10- Push (10) OVER (11)
Buffalo Bills-7- Over (11) OVER (8)
Carolina Panthers-7.5 Over (9) UNDER (7)
Chicago Bears-8.5- Over (12) OVER (11)
Cincinnati Bengals-7.5- Under (6) OVER (9)
Cleveland Browns-5.5- Under (4) UNDER (2)
Dallas Cowboys-8.5- Under (7) OVER (10)
Denver Broncos-9.5- Under (9) OVER (11)
Detroit Lions-9.5- Under (9) OVER (10)
Green Bay Packers-12- Over (13) PUSH (12)
Houston Texans-10- Under (8) OVER (11)
Indianapolis Colts-5.5- Under (5) UNDER (4)
Jacksonville Jaguars-5.5- Under (3) UNDER (3)
Kansas City Chiefs-8- Over (9) UNDER (5)
Miami Dolphins-7.5- Under (6) UNDER (7)
Minnesota Vikings-6- Under (3) PUSH (6)
New England Patriots-12- Push (12) OVER (13)
New Orleans Saints-10- Under (7) PUSH (10)
New York Giants-9.5- Under (9) OVER (10)
New York Jets-8.5- Over (9) OVER (9)
Oakland Raiders-7- Push (7) OVER (9)
Philadelphia Eagles-10- Over (11) UNDER (8)
Pittsburgh Steelers-10- Over (11) UNDER (9)
San Diego Chargers-9- Under (8) OVER (10)
San Francisco-10- Over (11) PUSH (10)
Seattle Seahawks-7- Push (7) UNDER (6)
St. Louis Rams-6- Under (5) UNDER (4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-6- Over (9) UNDER (4)
Tennessee Titans-7- Under (6) UNDER (3)
Washington Redskins-6.5- Over (8) OVER (7)
This is Andrew:
ReplyDeleteInteresting comparisons. We agree on some, but are off on others. Here's my take on where you are wrong Greg:
The Bills winning 11 games? Where do you get that. They play in the same division as the Patriots, who are probably the best team in the AFC...and the Jets who will get Tebow as their starter for most of the year (mark my words). Not to mention a Miami team that was pretty decent. I was gracious by giving them 8 wins. "Fitzmagic" died out late last year and won't be a factor this season.
The rookie QB who knew how to win last year was not Cam Newton but Andy Dalton! Yet you have Cam taking his horrific defensive team to to 9 wins this season (in a stacked division) and having Dalton's playoff team Bengals dropping to 6? That's crazy talk. And I didn't even mention AJ Green who will be unreal this season in Cinci!
You are way too low on the Cowboys. They were a good team last year that struggled with injuries. Romo, Bryant, Austin, every RB on roster, nearly all defense struggled with injuries and were 1 season finale win away from winning division and keeping Super Bowl champs from playoffs. They won't be that unlucky again.
I don't even get your Chiefs projection. In a division with Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and now Peyton Manning (not to mention their quality defenses and run game) you have the Chiefs winning 9 games? You must love something about them cause I don't...even though they are getting some injured guys back.
You must also put a lot of stock in coaching as you have the Saints dropping to a losing record at 7-9. Don't think so.
Fragile teams scare me...but not you. Philly and Pittsburgh are and have been beat up. Yet you have them way up there in the win column. Obviously they have the talent, but the injuries kept me from going that high.
And lastly we come to the Tampa Bay Bucs...the most ridiculous pick you made on here. I nearly didn't even give them 4 wins...but you gave them 9? Is Doug Martin a magic pill that will change their fortune? Again, in a division that is very good, they won't magically jump to the top. I know stranger things have happened but I don't see them really being that much better.
The great thing about this is that none of this matters. Things will get clearer as we approach the season. But as always, things change quickly once the season starts. Nice work!
My responses to your arguments:
ReplyDeleteYes, the Bills will win 11 games. Ryan Fitzpatrick played the last 9 games of the season with cracked ribs, hence the performance downturn. This team was also ravaged by injuries. Fred Jackson and Fitzpatrick will bounce back, and the offense will pick up where it left off. The defense got much better with the additions of Stephon Gilmore via the draft and Mario Williams via free agency. Miami has a new coach, and lost their top wideout to the Bears. They are also unstable at the QB position to put it lightly. The Jets had a ton of locker room issues, and while i love Tebow as a Christian, i still don't think he will ever be a legitimate NFL quarterback. So yes the Bills win 11 games and an AFC wild-card spot.
Yes Dalton was great, and I love him, but history proves most NFL QBs regress slightly in their sophomore seasons. Dalton and the Bengals over-achieved last year and will have a tougher schedule this year in a division that overall got better. Baltimore added some key pieces on defense (Courtney Upshaw being the best of them), and Pittsburgh added two quality offensive lineman in David DeCastro and Mike Adams. Cleveland won't be better, but the addition of offensive line help to Big Ben will again put Cinc(y), and yes its spelled with a Y, back into 3rd place in the division.
Cowboys are overrated, and getting old. They consistently get outplayed in the division and underachieve. The Redskins will be at least 3 wins better this year with a solid QB on their team, and the Eagles have had a full offseason for their FA pieces to gel together, let alone picking up DeMeco Ryans from the Texans and having arguably the best draft in the NFL this year. Oh, yeah and the super bowl champion Giants are in this division too, the cowboys will be in the cellar of this division this season.
The Chiefs...SOME injured guys back?? All of their BEST players were injured last season and they still almost won the AFC West. Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, Matt Cassel(not a great QB, but important to this team only bc it keeps Tyler Palko from starting). Plus the addition of Eric Winston to the offensive line and Dontari Poe to the DL will make this team very good. Top to bottom its hard to find a team with a more talented roster in the league. I have Denver winning the division but KC in second only bc Denver will own the tiebreaker. Fact is KC is better than both Oakland and San Diego...not why you are so shocked by this.
Yes, the saints will drop off. Not only bc their coaching is out, but the captain of their defense, defensive coordinator, and the rest of the division getting better. You forget the year before last TB won 10 games and narrowly missed the playoffs. They get a discipline-oriented coach coupled with signing Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, and Doug Martin and Josh Freeman in his 3rd season...why are you smoking crack? A blind person could see this team is going to be dangerous. Atlanta will be better, and so will Carolina. New Orleans will be fighting to stay out of the bottom of this division.
Again, injuries could change all of this, but I am really looking forward to NFL season!
I have to respond on a couple things... the Saints won't drop off. When you have a QB like Drew Brees and the players that go around him, you remain great. They have a tremendous home field advantage and likely won't lose a game at home. Then will find two road wins and get to ten wins easy.
ReplyDeleteThe Cowboys aren't old. Romo is still in his prime and he has Austin and Bryant as weapons. If Murray comes back strong and produces like he did at the end of last year they will be great! As for the Eagles in their division...Mike Vike will get injured again and not play 16 games so you can't bet on them.
On the other hand, you make great points about the Bills and Bengals. In fact, I think you may be more in the right on those teams the more I think about it.
But I'll add that you mentioned the sophomore slump. If Dalton has one you would think Cam does too. No way Cam produces like he did last year.
Andrew
I agree with Greg 100%.
ReplyDeleteI also believe in a swap between your projections of Da Bears and the Lions.
ReplyDeleteWell I think there is a good chance that three teams from the NFC North make it to the playoffs (Packers, Bears, Lions). The other observation I am making this early is the NFC is loaded with teams and will make for an unpredictable season. The AFC is less balanced and more cut and dry.
ReplyDeleteAndrew