Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Greg's First NCAA Football Preseason Rankings

College Football Season is coming up in about 100 days. Here is my First College Football Preview:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide- Even with all of the losses this team had from this year's national championship team I stick with them at the top of the rankings.  They have a great recruiting class coming in, a solid offensive line, are returning A.J. McCarron at QB, and have a budding star in RB Eddie Lacy, who saw time spelling #3 overall pick Trent Richardson last year.  The SEC will be tough once again, but I can't see anyone topping the Crimson Tide at this time.

2. USC Trojans- Matt Barkley, Robert Woods & Co. return from a postseason ban to a Pac-12 minus Andrew Luck.  That should spell great success for them as they nearly won the Pac-12 outright last season even with Luck's Cardinal in the league.  If Barkley can handle the pressure of being the early favorite for consensus #1 overall pick, the Trojans will be in the National Championship hunt.

3. South Carolina Gamecocks- Returning RB Marcus Latimore will really help this team to grow from last year's team that went to the SEC title game. Jadaveon Clowney's second year with the team should also spell loads of trouble for the other teams in the SEC west.  The old ball coach has finally got this program back to where expectations are high again. Can they meet them?

4. Michigan Wolverines- Brady Hoke's second year should have great returns for this improving squad.  If Denard Robinson can improve as a passer and a decision-maker this team's offense will grow by leaps and bounds.  The defense improved mightily last year and a great incoming recruiting class should help.  Big season-opening test on September 1st against Alabama at Cowboys Stadium should give the rest of the Big 10 a taste of just how good Michigan will be this year.

5.TCU Horned Frogs- Gary Patterson's team finished the season strong last year after a rough start. Returning QB Casey Pachall should be much improved in his second season as the Horned Frogs' starter. A relatively easy early part of the schedule should leave TCU well rested and fresh for a monumental last two weeks of the regular season.  I expect them to challenge Kansas State and Oklahoma in their first full season for the Big 12 title.

6. Arkansas Razorbacks- Only Bobby Petrino's absence kept this team out of the top 5.  They have a great scoring offense led by returning starting QB Tyler Wilson. If their defense improves at all they have a chance to challenge LSU and Alabama for the SEC title.

7. Oklahoma- Landry Jones returns for a final season with hopes to lead the Sooners to a National title.  The loss of Ryan Broyles, and several key LB's to the NFL draft.  The Sooners host Kansas State, Notre Dame, Baylor, and Oklahoma state but key late road games include West Virginia and the season finale at TCU that will likely decide the Big 12 champion.

8. LSU Tigers- The starting QB battle between Sophomore Zach Mettenberger, Freshman Jared Foster, Freshman Jerrard Randall, and Freshman Stephen Rivers will go a long way toward determining LSU's success.  They made it to the National Championship game last year with suspect QB play all year long.  If they can get more out of that position, the Bayou Bengals will be a title contender all year long.

9. Kansas State Wildcats- If Junior QB Colin Klein can improve as a passer, Kansas State will have a shot at the Big 12 title. Bill Snyder always seems to get the most out of his teams and the stadium in Manhattan is one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12. The league is tough this year,and I see TCU and Oklahoma ahead of K-State to start the season, but don't be surprised if they jump up and surprise one or both of these teams to win the league title. 

10. Ohio State Buckeyes- It'd be hard to have Urban Meyer coaching and not have OSU in the top 10 wouldn't it?  That'd be like having UK out of the top 10 in Men's CBB(oh wait, Andrew Miller has them at 17 in his preseason poll).  As is the theme with most of these top 10 teams, Braxton Miller's play at the QB position and his adjustment to Meyer's schemes will determine the Buckeyes' success this year.  I expect Wisconsin and Michigan State to take a step back after losing QB's to the draft, and don't be surprised to see the biggest football rivalry in the Big 10 determine the champion of that conference.

11. Oregon Ducks- Dropping them down a bit simply because even though Kenyon Barner will be very good, they have to replace LaMichael James. DeAnthony Thomas should help some, as he averaged a touchdown every 8 touches last year(insane), but the bigger workload could knock his production down a bit. The last 3 years Chip Kelly's team has lost the Rose Bowl, lost the National Championship, and won the Rose Bowl. Not too shabby.  A weak non-conference schedule could hurt them in the computer rankings however.

12. Virginia Tech Hokies- Finished last year 11-3, and even though they lost RB David Wilson, they should be a lock to win double digit games.  With the switch to the Big East the Hokies should really run away with that conference.  I don't see any legitimate challengers, other than potentially Cincinnati. Hokie fans should rejoice as an undefeated season is not out of the question.

13.Georgia Bulldogs- QB Aaron Murray returns for a third season as the starter, and though he lost his most reliable target in Orsen Charles, the Bulldogs' offense should be better if Murray improves.  A great recruiting class should help Mark Richt's team challenge 'Bama, LSU, and South Carolina for the SEC crown.

14. Florida State Seminoles- The 'noles started last season in the top 5 before an embarassing defeat to Oklahoma left them bruised and without their starting QB.  A lower starting point this season doesn't mean lower expectations as they have a plethora of talent at this school.  They will be a team to watch all season long.

15. Wisconsin Badgers- Losing Russell Wilson hurts, but Montee Ball coming back was a big boost for this program. Their tough running style of play should keep them in the thick of things as long as they have solid QB play. Another team that lost a lot of talent to the draft, and will need to replenish several positions on the offensive line at a high level to remain this high on my list.

16. Oklahoma State Cowboys- Outside of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon this team didn't lose a whole lot....wait those two players were the reason they were in the National Championship discussion most of the year last year.  The determining factor this season for them will be if their defense can continue to produce turnovers at a high level as they did last year. History says they fall off a bit from their totals last season.

17. Boise State Broncos- Chris Petersen's team has been in the upper echelon of college football for 5 years running now, but losing the winningest QB in the history of D-I football has to have an effect on the program, as will joining the Big East conference.  The competition might not be that much better, but you have to factor in the travel time to get to a lot of those east coast schools. Expect a slight drop off this season.

18. Stanford Cardinal- This team lost more starting players than any other team in college football last year to the NFL draft. They have to replace half of their offense and whoever the starting QB will have the pressure of following a legend on campus.  If they can tread water and get adequate performances out of some of the replacement players, they should remain in the top 25, but I don't expect Stanford to legitimately compete for a Pac-12 championship.

19. Cincinnati Bearcats- Losing RB Isaiah Pead will hurt the offensive attack of this team, but historically the third season under a new coach is usally a make or break season.  I say that it makes the Bearcats and they give Virginia Tech a run for their money in the Big East.

20. Clemson Tigers- Dabo Sweeneys team again looks strong in the ACC as it comes down to Clemson and Florida State in the ACC with Virginia Tech's departure for the Big East.  Look for a strong season from Taj Boyd at the QB position. He struggled with turnovers much of last season, but a solid offseason of work should pay off on the field this season for the Tigers.

21.Baylor Bears- Losing RGIII and Kendall Wright will be big for this program as RGIII really put Baylor football on the map. The Big 12 will be as competetive as ever, but the atmosphere and competetiveness of every program at Baylor over the last few years should result in the Bears staying relevant this season.

22.Nebraska Cornhuskers- Bo Pelini's team won 9 games a season ago, and if Taylor Martinez can ever learn to actually throw a football, this team will be much better. Down years for Wisconsin and Michigan State should help Nebraska challenge Michigan and Ohio State at the top of the conference.

23.Notre Dame Fighting Irish- Brian Kelly's third year at the school should pay dividends, and play at the QB position will determine success for the Irish.  Gunner Kiel, Andrew Kendricks, and Everett Gholson provide a young, talented nucleus for this team.  Legal problems for Tommy Rees should remove him from the conversation completely. If the QB's can keep from turning the ball over in the red zone the Irish's overall team speed and team defense have improved enough to make them a solid contender even with the loss of Aaron Lynch.

24.Michigan State Spartans-Losing Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham, and Jerel Worthy will create large question marks on this team.  Sophomore RB Le'Veon Bell returns and should challenge Montee Ball as the top RB in the conference.  Look for this team to play spoiler to a few teams that are attempting to win the conference late in the season.

25.West Virginia Mountaineers-Switching to the Big 12 will have a bigger effect on West Virginia than any other school switching conferences this season.  Every road game is a cross country trip, and that will take a toll on this team outside of Morgantown.  I expect them to be in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season, simply because I don't see them winning more than 1 conference road game.

2 comments:

  1. If the Hokies go undefeated they will be way higher ranked than 12, where you had them...

    Also, what I have learned over the years with college football is a top QB can take a team to great heights. So I think Oklahoma should be higher than 7. Landry Jones will be a star this year.

    And to add this, my early choice for the Heisman Trophy isn't Landry Jones, it is Matt Barkley. I like where they are ranked! :)

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  2. I have the hokies there because it is the start of the year, not the end. Starting at 12 and ending at 1,2 or 3 is very plausible.

    That's the main reason I have Oklahoma there. They lost a lot on defense and their best receiver on offense, so they dropped a little bit, but Landry coming back this year is the reason I put them there.

    As far as the heisman goes, IS there even another Heisman favorite than Barkley? I can't think of another player other than maybe Kenyon Barner depending on his season- and maybe Landry Jones that will challenge him for it.

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