Region Breakdowns - Weekend #2

Yesterday we shared our reactions from the first weekend of the tournament. We loved some things, were disappointed in others, but overall it set the stage for some great upcoming battles. As good as basketball was this weekend, it could be an even better weekend looking at the matchups I see here.

Today, we will go through and break down each region as it stands now. We will answer the same questions we answered last Tuesday, but focus on the current field. Some of our answers may have changed, others haven’t. Below are our thoughts on the favorites, the upset potentials, the best matchups, and four players from each region to watch. Tomorrow, we will reveal our secondary (re-do) picks for Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games.

Midwest

Region Favorite

Andrew: Louisville is still the favorite. They have looked like the best team in the entire field with two blowout wins. Russ Smith is performing well, which is really what takes them up a level.

Greg: Still Louisville. They have been the most solid team so far in the tourney and are still the overall favorites.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: As I said last Tuesday, Michigan State is a dangerous team. They are well coached, play great defense, rebound well, and play team basketball on the offensive end. They blitzed two good mid-majors last weekend, which impressed me. Derrick Nix has been on a tear.

Greg: Oregon. Oregon has played almost as well as Louisville and have a chance to upset the balance of the entire tournament with a win on Friday night.

Best “Sweet 16” Matchup

Andrew: Duke and Michigan State should be an amazing matchup. I respect the coaches more than nearly any others, both teams play extremely hard, and both teams have had success in the tourney. Duke is better offensively, but Michigan State is the better defensive squad.

Greg: (3)Michigan State/(2)Duke- This matchup is about as good as it gets. Two coaching legends from two historically great programs. Big 10 vs ACC. Its riveting stuff. It should be a nail-biter and a close game throughout as both teams match-up well against one another.

Best Potential “Elite 8” Matchup

Andrew: Duke vs. Louisville. I think the winner of this game has a huge chance to win it all. Before the tourney, I thought these two teams (along with Indiana) had the best chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta. I still believe that.

Greg: I'm with Andrew on this one. Duke Louisville would be a fun game to watch and would pit the two best teams (probably) in the region against one another.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: The guards matchup of Dominic Artis/Damyean Dotson (Oregon) vs. Peyton Siva/Russ Smith (Louisville) is something I can’t wait to watch. Down the road, Gorgui Dieng (Louisville) vs. Mason Plumlee (Duke) would be entertaining.

Greg: Arsalan Kazemi (Oregon) vs. Gorgui Dieng (Louisville). Kazemi was a beast against Saint Louis, but Dieng has the capability to just come out and dominate opposing big men. If Dieng can score and rebound and affect Kazemi, Oregon will have to shoot an absurdly high percentage from behind the arc to have a chance to win.

Upset Potential? (For Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 games)

Andrew: I really think Oregon has a great chance here. With great guard play, anything is possible. Any of the other teams winning wouldn’t be considered an upset in my opinion.

Greg: You have to go with Oregon here simply because even if Michigan State wins it wouldn't necessarily be considered an upset.

Four Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Russ Smith (Louisville) will likely decide if Louisville emerges from this region or not. Damyean Dotson (Oregon) had a great first weekend but can it continue? Adreian Payne (Michigan State) will need to produce on both ends for Michigan State to have a chance. Seth Curry (Duke) has to carry them offensively this weekend to win the regional.

Greg: Russ Smith, Louisville - He has been spectacular so far in the tournament, and if his hot shooting continues Louisville will advance in the tournament.

Damyean Dotson, Oregon - Has shot lights out in the first two rounds. If he continues to shoot this well they will be at least close to giving Louisville a run for their money.

Derrick Nix, Michigan State - If he can dominate Mason Plumlee on the inside the Spartans will be able to control the tempo of the game, and ultimately probably win the game.

Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke - Will be matched up with Keith Appling this round and will need to control the ball, and make good decisions while being pressured for Duke not to fall behind.

South

Region Favorite

Andrew: I boldly claimed Florida was the favorite last week, and although they looked great in their two games, I’m changing my favorite to Michigan. Michigan was near the top of the polls all year, have a POY candidate in Trey Burke, and simply looked better than any other team in the South last weekend. Their game against VCU was outstanding.

Greg: Michigan. Michigan's dismantling of a very strong VCU team on Saturday was among the most impressive performances of the tournament thus far.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: Since I removed Florida as my favorite, I’ll put them as the darkhorse. They have to get by Florida Gulf Coast first though.

Greg: FGCU. After what they did in their first two games, it is not impossible to imagine them making the Final four.

Best “Sweet 16” Matchup

Andrew: I am eagerly waiting for Michigan vs. Kansas. It’s the top seed vs. my new favorite. It’s a matchup of two teams that have been in the Top 5 or 10 all year long.

Greg: I'm really looking forward to the intrastate matchup between Florida Gulf Coast and Florida. It will be an entertaining game.

Best Potential “Elite 8” Matchup

Andrew: Kansas vs. Florida would likely be the best matchup. They play great team basketball and are both very solid on both ends of the court. They also have the best two coaches in the region.

Greg: I think Michigan vs FGCU would be more entertaining to watch. I'll be rooting for that matchup.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: Trey Burke (Michigan) vs. Ben McLemore (Kansas) is a scoring duel that could be fun to see. They won’t guard each other, but whoever performs better will likely deliver a win to their respective team.

Greg: Travis Releford (Kansas) vs. Tim Hardaway Jr. (Michigan). Most other positions on the court are relatively even offensively and defensively. Releford is not the offensive threat that Hardaway,Jr. is but if he can contain Hardaway the Jayhawks have a great chance of winning.

Upset Potential? (For Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 games)

Andrew: Can Florida Gulf Coast keep it going? That’s a question we all want to know. They became the first 15-seed to make it this far, but what about the Elite 8 or even Final Four?

Greg: This is another obvious one: FGCU.

Four Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Elijah Johnson (Kansas) must play to his potential for Kansas to win both of these games. Mitch McGary (Michigan) was the X-Factor in the first weekend. The only way they continue their run is with good play from him. Scottie Wilbekin (Florida) has played well this season. I think he is vital to the team's success. Brett Comer (Florida Gulf Coast) is now my new favorite player.

Greg: Travis Releford, Kansas - This senior's leadership will be essential in beating the Wolverines. He will draw the assignment of slowing down Tim Hardaway,Jr., who has been on a tear thus far in the tournament.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan - Has been on a shooting spree since the opening tip. He went 5-7 from 3 in the first round and 3-5 in the second. If you're keeping track, and I am, that's 8-13 or 61.5% so far in the tournament.

Patrick Young, Florida - Will have his hands full defending the paint and collecting rebounds against the active frontcourt of FGCU.

Bernard Thompson, FGCU - Was deadly from inside the arc against San Diego State, going 9 for 15. Will need to replicate that performance against the Gators.

East

Region Favorite

Andrew: I think it’s still Indiana. They finally found a way to win a slow, physical, half-court game. And they still will beat any team that tries to play up-tempo with them.

Greg: Still Indiana. Though the game against Temple was not pretty, the Hoosiers gutted it out. They are still the favorite here.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: Syracuse is a darkhorse because they have a high ceiling. Their issue is they can play poorly at times also.

Greg: Marquette. The Golden Eagles have gutted out two games by a combined margin of 3 points. They don't win pretty, but they win, and they can challenge anyone.

Best “Sweet 16” Matchup

Andrew: Indiana vs. Syracuse. I’m intrigued because IU has struggled at times against zone this year despite all their shooters. And all the Orange play is zone.

Greg: Agree it's Indiana and Syracuse.

Best Potential “Elite 8” Matchup

Andrew: Indiana vs. Marquette or Miami. Indiana and Miami are the two best teams, but wouldn’t seeing Tom Crean play his former team be something to see?

Greg: Indiana vs Miami - purely from a fans perspective. Watching Marquette play is sometimes difficult because they play so ugly (I like it actually, but most people don't).

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: Vander Blue tore it up in Marquette’s first two games, so I’ll be interested to see if Miami puts their defensive stud, Durand Scott on him. Down the road, I would like to see Victor Oladipo guard Shane Larkin down the stretch in a tight game.

Greg: Durand Scott/Vander Blue also. Similar styles and similar builds. If Scott can limit Blue's scoring, will Marquette find enough offense to win this game?

Upset Potential? (For Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 games)

Andrew: Syracuse could take out IU. Indiana was vulnerable against Temple, and Syracuase wouldn’t let them off the hook if they play that poorly again.

Greg: Syracuse over Indiana. Indiana will need to play better than they did against Temple. However, the Orangemen have been prone to off-nights as well this season.

Four Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Cody Zeller (Indiana) needs to show up big if the Hoosiers want to go to Atlanta. James Southerland (Syracuse) can light it up, as evidenced by his Big East Tourney. Vander Blue (Marquette) was a star last weekend, but can he be that again? Shane Larkin (Miami) means everything to Miami. His clutch play is something to admire.

Greg: Jordan Hulls, Indiana - The Syracuse zone should help the Hoosiers set a new record for most 3 point FGs made in a tournament game, and if Hulls is shooting well he will be a big part of that.

Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse - His penetrating ability could give Indiana some problems, and if he scores from those penetrations it should really help Syracuse's chances.

Jamil Wilson, Marquette - Will be a matchup nightmare for the Hurricanes. Kenny Kadji can't stay with him and Durand Scott will presumably guard Vander Blue.

Rion Brown, Miami - If Larkin and Scott struggle again, will Brown be able to step up in consecutive games to keep the Hurricanes' title hopes alive?

West

Region Favorite

Andrew: It was Ohio State a week ago, and it is now clearly Ohio State.

Greg: Ohio State. That's what you get when the other seeds are a 6,9,and 14. Its pretty clear cut on who the favorite in this region is.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: La Salle because they remind me of VCU from a couple years ago.

Greg: La Salle. No one thought they would get this far in the tournament, but they have shocked everyone and are the only A-10 team left standing after the first weekend.

Best “Sweet 16” Matchup

Andrew: Ohio State vs. Arizona is the matchup of the most talented and best teams remaining in the wacky West. The winner would be clearly favored to advance to Atlanta.

Greg: Wichita State vs La Salle. Contrasting styles from more unknown conferences with unknown players. Discovering new talent and watching games unfold without a great idea of what is going to happen is a fans dream.

Best Potential “Elite 8” Matchup

Andrew: Wichita State vs. Ohio State. I say that because Wichita State knocked off the 1-seed, so they are clearly good enough to knock off the 2-seed as well.

Greg: Agree with Andrew here. It would be a good matchup.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: Aaron Craft (Ohio State) vs. Mark Lyons (Arizona) is a great point guard matchup. Arizona brought Lyons in for moments like these in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State recruited Craft for his defensive intensity. Let’s get it on!

Greg: Mark Lyons/Aaron Craft for sure. If Craft can affect Lyons' offense and get in his head, Ohio State could run away with this game. I think he is able to do it, but I'm intererested to see how mentally tough Lyons is going to be against that constant pressure.

Upset Potential? (For Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 games)

Andrew: I guess I have fallen in love with La Salle because I can see them winning two more games and advancing to the Final Four. Anything’s possible right?

Greg: I don't know that Arizona has a chance so I'm going to pick La Salle... but I also didn't think Arizona had a chance to get to the sweet 16 and look how that turned out for me.

Four Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Cleanthony Early (Wichita State) averaged 18.5 points last weekend. It’s efforts like those that can get them two more wins. Ramon Gallaway (La Salle) has been even better in their 3 wins averaging over 21 points a game. Mark Lyons (Arizona) must not only score this weekend, but he must run good offense and avoid turnovers for the Wildcats to have a chance. Lastly, Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State) needs to provide scoring production for the Buckeyes. But he can’t be a ballhog either because balanced scoring has been their key to success as of late.

Greg: Cleanthony Early, Wichita State - Besides having arguably the best name in the tournament, Early is a ball hawking rebounder who can change the complexion of a game very quickly.

Ramon Gallaway, La Salle - Gallaway has been intrumental to the Explorers run in the tournament. He's a dual-threat scorer who has explosive leaping ability.

Sam Thompson, Ohio State - Has dramatically improved his shooting, and with the backcourt matchups being so much the focal point of the game I think Thompson could be poised to be a huge factor.

Solomon Hill, Arizona - I think Hill is a matchup problem for Ohio State, and if he shoots well, just like Thompson, he could really be an X factor in the game.

That’s it! Feel free to make comments if you agree or disagree. Tell us what your thoughts are on these topics. Remember, we’ll reveal our “re-do picks” tomorrow…

By: The Sports Guys