Region Breakdowns

Yesterday we shared our initial reactions to the bracket. Those reactions were based off of our first glances at the bracket and based on what stuck out instantly. Then we studied it more and more. Some opinions changed, some didn’t. Either way, we wanted to go more in depth.

Today we will go through and break down each region. Our main focus will be on the first weekend of games (or potential games), and we’ll save discussion on further games for next weekend. Below are our thoughts on the favorites, the upset potentials, the best matchups, and five players from each region to watch. Tomorrow we will reveal our actual picks.

Midwest

Region Favorite

Andrew: I initially wrote Duke because they have only lost one game with Ryan Kelly. But then I switched my answer to Louisville. Playing close to home in Indy will help them against the Blue Devils. And when they lost to Duke earlier in the year, Gorgui Dieng wasn’t in the lineup.

Greg: Louisville - As the #1 overall seed, they can't NOT be the favorite.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: Michigan State. Beware of the Big Ten, of Tom Izzo, and of experienced teams. While Louisville is close to Indianapolis, Michigan State is also close. They play great defense, rebound like crazy, and they are smart with the basketball.

Greg: Saint Louis - The A-10's best team has a great chance at winning this section of the bracket.

Team Most Likely to Pull a VCU/Butler (low seed to Final Four)

Andrew: Oregon or Creighton. Creighton has Doug McDermott… enough said. Oregon is a team that is coming off winning the Pac-12 Tourney, and have a ton of motivation from the committee by being seeded 12. You’ve been warned.

Greg: (11) Middle Tennessee. I love this team. They played a great non-conference schedule and have the makeup of a very dangerous team. If they can win their first two games they will have a shot to get to the Final Four.

Best “Round of 64” Matchup

Andrew: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon. Most would put this game on “Upset Watch” but it wouldn’t be that much of an upset. Oregon just got under-seeded. Both teams are inexperienced, particularly when talking about NCAA Tournament play.

Greg: Toss up between Oklahoma State/Oregon and Colorado State/Missouri. I'm going to go with OK State/Oregon because more is at stake. Oregon seemingly was wronged by being given a 12 seed, but that seeding will either be validated with a loss or further insults will be thrown at the committee if they win.

Best Potential “Round of 32” Matchup

Andrew: Louisville vs. Missouri. Greg and I were both very high on Missouri before the season. They struggled without Bowers for some of the year, and it took a while for the team to cope when Dixon was suspended. But they are talented and have played better of late. I believe they could test the number one overall seed.

Greg: Duke/Creighton. This matchup is great because they are two well-coached teams that are tournament tested. This will be a very entertaining game and I am looking forward to it.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: In the second round I look forward to Ryan Broekhoff (Valpo) vs. Adrienne Payne (MSU). These guys are solid from all over the court and are matchup nightmares for most teams. In the third round, I look forward to Phil Pressey (Missouri) vs. Louisville’s pressure. Will he handle it? Also, Doug McDermott (Creighton) vs. Duke’s big men (Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee). That’s a bunch of talented big men right there.

Greg: Similar to Andrew, Doug McDermott vs. Ryan Kelly could be great in the “Round of 32” games. I hope that takes place.

Upset Potential? (For both second and third round games)

Andrew: The play-in game winner (Middle Tennessee/St. Mary’s) vs. Memphis. That game could have upset written all over it. I already mentioned Oregon’s upset potential over Oklahoma State, but they would then have a great chance over Saint Louis as well.

Greg: None are that likely in the second round, but Middle Tennessee has the best chance against Memphis. Then, Missouri/Colorado State over Louisville is possible. Colorado State and Missouri are both excellent rebounding teams and Missouri especially has a great PG to help handle Louisville's press. If an upset is going to happen in the “Round of 32”, that'd be my guess as to where it happens.

Five Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Peyton Siva (Louisville), Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State), Gary Harris (Michigan State), Doug McDermott (Creighton), and Seth Curry (Duke). These players are keys to their team’s success. How they play this weekend can and will determine if they are marching on.

Greg: Peyton Siva (Louisville) - His play picked up in the Big East tournament and if he plays well, Louisville is very difficult to beat. Dominic Artis (Oregon) - Similar to Siva, as he goes, so go the Oregon Ducks. He will have to play well to counter Marcus Smart from OK State. Keith Appling (MSU) - He must play well for Michigan State to have a chance to win the National Championship. I want to see if the aggressive Keith Appling shows up to the tourney, or if it is the passive one. Doug McDermott (Creighton) - May go pro after this season. Will he play well against some better competition? Mason Plumlee (Duke) - Has been up and down all year long. If he dominates, Duke won’t be beaten. Can he do it?

South

Region Favorite

Andrew: Shocker… Florida is. As I said yesterday, they are the only team in the country to be ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense. Plus, Billy Donavan simply knows how to get it done in the tourney. He at least makes it to the Elite 8 every year it seems.

Greg: Georgetown-Not Kansas. Georgetown has had a better season to this point.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: VCU. Their style of play is so unique that many teams will struggle. I don’t think they will get past Michigan, but if they get hot, look out.

Greg: VCU- Can Shaka Smart's team make another miracle run to the Final Four?

Team Most Likely to Pull a VCU/Butler (low seed to Final Four)

Andrew: I think it has to be Minnesota. We’ve seen them knock off some big time opponents this year (Indiana for one) and the Big Ten prepared them for stiff competition. With Mbakwe and the Hollins’ boys, they have the talent.

Greg: Agree… Minnesota.

Best “Round of 64” Matchup

Andrew: I think it’s Minnesota and UCLA. UCLA has a lot to prove, particularly after losing Jordan Adams to injury. There will be a lot of talent on the court here, and both teams have struggled to utilize it consistently.

Greg: UCLA/Minnesota - Will UCLA show up for this? Will Minnesota show their early season form, or their late season form?

Best Potential “Round of 32” Matchup

Andrew: UNC and Kansas in the Roy Williams Bowl. Both teams have been coached by Williams, both schools have history, they played in the Elite 8 last year, and they are both so talented.

Greg: VCU/Michigan - This would be arguably the game of the tournament. It would be very difficult to get two more evenly matched teams who would play as entertaining a brand of basketball as these two.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: I am dying to see Trey Burke (Michigan) vs. Nate Wolters (South Dakota St.). Both guards can do it all, and I am interested to see if they guard each other. Then the guard who emerges there going against the VCU pressure will be epic. I also look forward to Otto Porter Jr. (Georgetown) vs. Jamaal Franklin (San Diego State). These guys are more diverse than nearly everyone else in the country. It would be a battle.

Greg: As I said earlier, Michigan and VCU could be an epic battle. I’d focus in on Trey Burke vs. Reggie Theus. Theus isn’t as well known as Burke, but that would be a dogfight.

Upset Potential? (For both second and third round games)

Andrew: Minnesota is an obvious answer, but how about Akron over VCU. I know they just lost one of their stars to injury, but they were a dominant team this year in the MAC. And if Villanova can get past UNC, they would be a difficult matchup for Kansas. And they have already knocked off some giants this year…

Greg: Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown in the second round. I don't know if this will happen or not, but FGCU has a solid team and can really challenge the Hoyas. In the third round, look out for Minnesota over Florida. Florida is a bit overrated in my opinion (their loss to Ole Miss is a prime example), and I think Minnesota will represent the Big 10 well.

Five Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: No offense to Nate Wolters, but here are the five players that can carry their teams to Atlanta in this region. Ben McLemore (Kansas) has proven he isn’t an ordinary freshman. He can flat score it. Trey Burke (Michigan) already won the POY in the best conference in the country. Shabazz Muhammed (UCLA) is a likely Top 5 pick in this summer’s draft. I think he’ll look to cement that status. Kenny Boynton (Florida) has been up and down all season. But he’s always loved March. Lastly, Otto Porter Jr. can back up many people’s claim that he is a POY candidate.

Greg: Jayvaughn Pinkston (Villanova) - If he can dominate the paint against UNC, the Wildcats of Villanova might be able to upset them and set a date with Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks. Trey Burke (Michigan) - Regardless of how you feel about his team, he is as entertaining an individual player. Nate Wolters (South Dakota State) - His performance against Michigan will determine whether or not the Jackrabbits will advance to the next round. Larry Drew III (UCLA) - With Jordan Adams out for the tournament, Larry Drew will have to shoulder even more than he did before. If UCLA is to get past Minnesota, Drew will have to play the best game of his career. Dre Hollins (Minnesota) - His scoring ability will determine whether Minnesota gets by UCLA or goes home after a disappointing opening round loss.

East

Region Favorite

Andrew: It’s the Hoosiers. When they play their best, there isn’t a team in the tourney that can beat them. Here’s to hoping they play to their potential!

Greg: Uh… Indiana!

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: Butler baby. We know they can deliver in the Big Dance, because they have went to the final four twice in the last three years. And this year they beat Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette, and North Carolina. That’s getting it done against the big boys.

Greg: NC State. We know how talented they are. It’s just a matter of realizing that talent.

Team Most Likely to Pull a VCU/Butler (low seed to Final Four)

Andrew: Since I just mentioned Butler, and Greg mentioned NC State, I’ll be different and go with Colorado. They have some big time players and they won’t be afraid of the moment.

Greg: Illinois from the Big Ten. If they run into Indiana, they’ve beaten them before.

Best “Round of 64” Matchup

Andrew: UNLV and California will be interesting. They played earlier this year (UNLV won by 1 point) and somehow got matched up again.

Greg: Colorado/Illinois - Both teams have been up and down and rely heavily on the 3-point shot. It should be a close game with Illinois coming out on top.

Best Potential “Round of 32” Matchup

Andrew: NC State and Indiana should be a great game. They played last year and IU won in a tight contest. I picked both of these teams preseason to advance to the Final Four. Something’s gotta give. Jordan Hulls (Indiana) and Scott Wood (NC State) in a shooting contest would be highly entertaining as well.

Greg: Indiana/NC State - An exciting early season matchup last year, this one could break tournament scoring records.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: In the first set of games, I want to see the scoring contest between Rotnei Clarke (Butler) and Mike Muscala (Bucknell). In the second sets of games, I would love forward to the UNLV frontcourt (Bennett, Moser, Birch) vs. the Syracuse “bigs” on the backend of the zone. How would they handle that?

Greg: The matchup I’d be most eager to watch would be Brandon Paul (Illinois) vs. Durand Scott (Miami). Paul scores in bunches, but Scott was the ACC POY. Don’t let that fool you though, Paul can play defense too, and Scott just dropped 32 in the ACC Tourney.

Upset Potential? (For both second and third round games)

Andrew: As much as I love Butler, Bucknell has a great chance at an early upset. Marquette is also in danger of an upset, not just against Davidson early, but against the winner of that aforementioned Butler/Bucknell game.

Greg: Cal over UNLV - Cal nearly pulled out the win earlier this season against the Runnin' Rebs' and another virtual home game should help them overcome UNLV in their second meeting. Later in the weekend, look for Illinois over Miami - The Illini have really started to play well, and if they start to hit shots consistently during the tournament they are capable of beating any team.

Five Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: In this region I’ll give you a starting an All-American caliber starting lineup of players you need to watch:

PG – Shane Larkin (Miami) – He’s a leader, scorer, defender, and distributor.

SG – Rotnei Clarke (Butler) – He can shoot… flat out shoot.

SF – James Southerland (Syracuse) – Will determine how far they advance.

PF – Anthony Bennett (UNLV) – Is good enough to lead them to Atlanta.

C – Cody Zeller (Indiana) – IU Banner #6 will be determined by this young man.

Greg: This list starts with Cody Zeller - Especially if the anticipated matchup against NC State looms, Zeller will be key to beating the Wolfpack. Anthony Bennett - Diaper Dandy who is capable of taking UNLV on a Final Four run. Rotnei Clarke - Early season shot making led Butler to an improbable Maui tournament final against UNC. He seems to love the big moment, and none are bigger than what he is about to play in. Brandon Paul - He carried the Illini all season and his play has been stellar of late. He could really carry this team. Shane Larkin - A legitimate POY candidate as a freshman, Larkin makes Miami a real danger to win the East region.

West

Region Favorite

Andrew: Ohio State… as evidenced by their Big Ten Tourney run. Sorry Gonzaga.

Greg: Gonzaga – They are the #1 ranked team in the country.

Region Darkhorse

Andrew: Wisconsin… as evidenced by their Big Ten Tourney run. But this time they’ll have to actually beat Ohio State.

Greg: New Mexico. Steve Alford’s crew won a talented Mountain West conference for good reason.

Team Most Likely to Pull a VCU/Butler (low seed to Final Four)

Andrew: Iowa State simply because they can light it up from the perimeter. If they get hot, they can defeat most teams.

Greg: The Pitt Panthers (ranked 7^th overall in the Pomeroy rankings).

Best “Round of 64” Matchup

Andrew: Arizona/Belmont offers a great matchup and chance for upset. Arizona has played tons of close games this year so I expect this to be the same.

Greg: Ole Miss/Wisconsin- Two real contrasts in style between the exuberance of Marshall Henderson and the workmanlike approach of the Badgers. I think Wisconsin will get the last word in.

Best Potential “Round of 32” Matchup

Andrew: I would love to see Gonzaga challenged early with Pittsburgh. Pitt could give them some problems because of Tray Woodall outside, and Steven Adams inside. Gonzaga would be okay though I think.

Greg: Notre Dame/Ohio State- In the opposite of a high scoring game, this one would feature stellar defense and 'back to fundamental' basketball.

Best Individual Matchups This Weekend (Actual/Potential)

Andrew: Aaron Craft (Ohio State) vs. Lamont “Momo” Jones (Iona). Jones averages 23 points a game but Craft is one of the best defenders in the country. Fun! And as I mentioned before, Steven Adams (Pittsburgh) vs. Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga) could be a physical battle inside.

Greg: I know I’m looking ahead, but I can’t help it. Tony Snell (New Mexico) vs. Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State) is just fun to think about.

Upset Potential? (For both second and third round games)

Andrew: Since I already mentioned Belmont, I’ll mention the Play-In winner (Boise State/La Salle) could definitely beat Kansas State. For whatever reason, I don’t trust Bruce Weber’s new team. And to throw this out there, Gonzaga and Ohio State will both be vulnerable in their second games.

Greg: Belmont over Arizona - To quote Doug Gottlieb (which is usually dangerous) "Belmont shoots the 3 well, and Arizona doesn't like to defend the 3." And I agree with Andrew… Pitt over Gonzaga could happen. Pitt’s two giants (Dante Taylor and Steven Adams) could dominate Elias Harris and Kelly Olynyk of Gonzaga.

Five Players to Watch in This Region

Andrew: Be sure to watch Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga). He is a POY candidate nationally for a reason. The same goes for Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State). I mean averaging 19.5 points in the Big Ten is impressive. Marshall Henderson (Ole Miss) is must-see TV, but only because his antics and emotion can get the best of him. He’ll be frustrated against Wisconsin so I’ll tune in. Rodney McGruder (Kansas State) needs to step up. Greg and I both doubt the Wildcats and he can shut us up. Ryan Evans (Wisconsin) was their MVP in the Big Ten Tourney (when they beat Michigan and Indiana). Can he lead them to a Final Four?

Greg: Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga) - Doesn't get as much credit as he deserves, but hasn't played against very many skilled big men. Tony Snell (New Mexico) - Could be the MVP of the entire tournament, he's that good. Reminds me a lot of a better shooting Kawhi Leonard. Jack Cooley (Notre Dame) - Has not sustained production over the second half of the season. ND really needs him to pick it up if they have any chance of making the sweet 16. Aaron Craft (Ohio State) - I will be interested to see how non-Big Ten PG's handle his defensive pressure. Ben Brust (Wisconsin) - Brust has hit big shots all season long. Can he take his regular season success into the postseason?

That’s it! Feel free to make comments if you agree or disagree. Tell us what your thoughts are on these topics. Remember, we’ll reveal our picks tomorrow…

By: The Sports Guys