But with the NBA Draft less than ten days away, today I'll preview it. Let me make some clarifiers:
1. This is based on what I would do if I was drafting, NOT based on what I think will necessarily happen.
2. This will not include trades, even though I may discuss the idea.
3. I will only cover the first round.
2012 First Round
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis
This pick will happen for sure. For the record, I don't think Davis will end up as the best player from this class. It is the least risky though and if you don't take Davis you will likely lose your job. So it's a no brainer. Defensively he is ready to play at this level (although gaining some weight may help) but he is raw and needs to develop more offensively.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
This may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Criticize me if you want but Kidd-Gilchrist was the best player in college basketball last season, the real reason they won the championship (no way they beat my Hoosiers in Sweet 16 without this guy), and he could end up being the best player from this class. I think he could be the type of player that Scottie Pippen was. He is shorter than we all thought, but he plays taller, is a tough worker, and does everything on the floor.
For the actual draft, Jordan isn't sure about Kidd-Gilchrist (which is why he is terrible at what he does and has run the franchise into the ground). So Thomas Robinson could be the player you will see on draft night. They could also trade the pick to acquire multiple pieces.
3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal
I was torn here between Robinson and Beal. I chose Beal though because he is younger and has more upside. He has the size, athleticism, and scoring ability to be a great guard next to John Wall. Pairing these guys together is great for the future of this franchise and they compliment each other well.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andre Drummond
I thought about Waiters and Barnes here because they could use a scoring guard to go with Kyrie Irving. But I thought that would be reaching slightly and Beal (who would be perfect) is off the board. With Thompson already in place on the team at PF, Drummond could fit well with him at the center spot. Drummond tested great at the combine, and showed great upside last season at UCONN. He is raw but could turn out to be a great inside player in the NBA.
5. Sacramento Kings: Thomas Robinson
Outside of Cousins, this team doesn't have much inside. Robinson is a great fit to add some size, athleticism, and some scoring on the interior. He would be a great power forward next to Cousins and would be able to play up tempo with Tyreke and others.
6. Portland Trailblazers: Damian Lillard
Portland has solid players across the board but only has one star in Aldridge. That means they could look at any spot at this point in the draft. I would think about trading this pick unless one of the above five falls. I think the next ten to fifteen picks are pretty equal so trading down would on be just adding assets.
If I had to choose though, I would like to add a point guard. They have Felton, but he's not the answer for the long term. Lillard has the athletic ability to play like Rose does for the Bulls. That's a risk I'd take if I didn't trade this pick.
7. Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes
I like what the Warriors have done to sure up their inside play. But trading Monta last year opened up a scoring hole, particularly on the outside. Barnes would be a great addition to this squad and remember, he was supposed to go much higher than this coming out of high school. So his upside is great!
8. Toronto Raptors: Austin Rivers
In my opinion, the Raptors need help everywhere. Rivers to me can be a star. You know basketball is in his blood, and we saw last year as a freshman that he can be the man (Remember his game against UNC). He provides scoring immediately and is an NBA type of player. If I'm drafting, I pull the trigger on Rivers here.
On draft day, I don't see the Raptors doing this. I am higher on Rivers than most.
9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger
Here is another pick that I don't think will happen on draft night. But I don't see why? They have some youth (Knight and Stuckey) and money (Gordon) invested in their backcourt. I also love their center spot with Greg Monroe. Sully is a perfect complement to those players. He may lack a little size and athleticism, but he knows the game, knows how to use his body, and knows how to win. That's what this Pistons team lacks. Zeller would be another I'd consider.
LATE NOTE: It was just announced that Sully was tagged as an injury risk. Expect him to slide on draft night. And if I didn't just spend a lot of time doing this mock, I'd redo it and move him down. I still say he's taken in the top 15-20 though. He's worth somewhat of a risk.
LATE NOTE: It was just announced that Sully was tagged as an injury risk. Expect him to slide on draft night. And if I didn't just spend a lot of time doing this mock, I'd redo it and move him down. I still say he's taken in the top 15-20 though. He's worth somewhat of a risk.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Kendall Marshall
With Davis as their first pick, I view point guard as the other big hole this team has. Unfortunately Lillard is off the board. So for me it's between Marshall and Wroten. I think Marshall is the more skilled passer and can do a great job at the NBA level distributing. The only issue with this pick though is that he (or Wroten) probably would be available in 5-10 picks. So if they can trade down to pick up another late pick or player, they should. Then take one of them there.
11. Portland Trailblazers: Tyler Zeller
There are a lot of directions you can go with this pick. With them already drafting with the sixth pick, they will be looking to go with that one. With injuries and other factors, they haven't yet found a good inside play to pair with Aldridge; plus, a big that can run would be awesome to pair with Lillard who they picked above. Trading down is something to consider if an opportunity presents itself, but I love Zeller. The combine showed his legit 7-foot status and he is very polished.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Meyers Leonard
After trading Bogut, they could use another 7-footer to play inside. Henson was another option here but doesn't have the height or offensive game that Leonard does. Meyers impressed at the combine and really has risen on draft boards. He's also a nice addition to pair with Larry Sanders and some of the others on the inside.
13. Phoenix Suns: Dion Waiters
The Suns have quietly been solid in the frontcourt. They are suddenly weak in the backcourt though. Nash may be out of town and there is a need to add playmakers. Waiters isn't even close to the same type of player as Nash (and different position), but he is somebody that can make things happen and can become a player that changes games. His athleticism should translate perfectly to the NBA and is a possible steal at this point in the draft.
14. Houston Rockets: Jeremy Lamb
If a legit center (such as Zeller or Leonard) slide to them, I think they should pull the trigger. It would be nice to get a young big man next to Scola inside. But with those guys gone in this mock, I could see them targeting another scorer. Lamb is the best of the rest in that category. He has great upside and is still a very young player.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson
This was a tough decision. With Brand aging, I feel the seriously need size (even more than shooting). There are a number of power forwards though to consider: Henson, Jones, PJIII, Moultrie... I went with Henson because he is ready to contribute defensively, and has developed into a great finisher. His jumper is improving and he could pair with Hawes nicely inside.
16. Houston Rockets: Moe Harkless
The beauty of two picks around this part of the draft is that there are a lot of options. Like I said before, a center would be nice but it's too early for Fab Melo. There are power forwards to consider but they could use a small forward big time. Harkless is a bit of a flyer, but with Lamb taken earlier they can afford to do it. He never truly blossomed in college but in the NBA he could finally hit his stride.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Ross
The Mavericks are old, particularly in the backcourt. I think they try and target the best guard available. In this mock, Ross fits the bill as the best available right now. He is a great shooter that could spread the floor for Dirk and company. Also, he has much better size that Jason Terry who currently fills that role (not too mention much younger). I think he is so talented for the 17th pick. Of course, everything changes if they add somebody like Deron Williams (but we won't know that until after the draft).
18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrence Jones
If Ross is available here I think he could add the shooting the Wolves desire. But he is gone and therefore I think they go Jones. He is a top 10 talent that has slid in my mock. At the combine he showed he has a great NBA body. He can play outside but can mix it up inside too. With Kevin Love already dominating the paint, they could use Jones' athleticism here. I can envision lobs from Rubio all day!
19. Orlando Magic: Perry Jones III
Wow. Hard to believe a guy this talented could slip this far. But in this deep draft, and with his shaky season, most believe he is no longer the top ten pick he was destined to be. If Dwight Howard stays, PJIII could be great alongside him because he wouldn't have to be the beef. I think the Magic would be pleased if he does slip this far. I would be if I were them.
20. Denver Nuggets: Andrew Nicholson
Denver has a lot of depth so I think they will take the best player available. Nicholson is ready to contribute now but also has a lot of upside. He has a body ready for the rigors of the NBA and is fairly polished. With a budding defensive star in Faried inside, Nicholson can add some scoring punch down low. I think they would love if some of the guys just before this pick slid to them. If it were me, I'd even look to trade up if I can to grab a star.
21. Boston Celtics: Arnett Moultrie
With back to back picks, I think Boston tries to address two areas of need. At the same time, I think they take the best players available that are not point guards (already have Rondo). Moultrie is very long and can be a great replacement for Garnett when he moves on. KG would also be a great person to learn from if this pick happens.
22. Boston Celtics: John Jenkins
Initially I liked Royce White here but I think this makes more sense. Rondo and Bradley can't shoot and they are most likely losing Ray Allen. And when a shooter like Jenkins comes along, I don't think you can pass it up. Doron Lamb is another shooter to consider if going that route, but Jenkins has a quicker trigger and has unlimited range. I am a fan of shooting and believe it is vastly underrated.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Royce White
I could see Atlanta using this pick on a center (like Melo or Ezeli) or on a point guard (like Wroten Jr. or Teague). But if Royce White slides past Boston I would be thrilled. He would be a great playmaker at the small forward position and can be moved around just like Josh Smith. He is too great a talent to slide much farther than this. Marvin Williams didn't work but this SF might.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Doron Lamb
I had the Cavs taking Drummond earlier in the draft. So now I think they need a 2 or 3 with this pick. Taylor and Green were both options but I wanted more of a pure shooter. Lamb is the best available (with Jenkins going two picks earlier) and he would compliment Irving nicely in the backcourt. If Beal slides to them with the fourth pick, then I would take a big like Melo or Ezeli with this one.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Evan Fournier
The Grizzlies are in a tough spot. They are a talented team without a weakness, yet they lack a star. The 25th pick won't change that, only free agency will. With that in mind I would take a chance on Fournier, who is the best foreign player in the draft. They can even keep him in Europe with the chance he develops into the star they need.
On a side note, I would be aggressive in free agency to add the star they desire. I would trade Conley and others to free up money to attack Deron Williams.
The other option I would consider would be to trade this pick (if you can get something good from it), or go with Wroten Jr. who is a great talent that could turn into a star.
26. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague
Just like Memphis, I don't think they have a big weakness as a team. I would draft Teague though because he is an Indy kid (just like George Hill) and this would allow them to shop Collison. There are many other players I would consider here though including Wroten Jr., Green, Taylor, Ezeli, Melo, and Miller. I think they'll stick to the Indiana ties though.
27. Miami Heat: Fab Melo
They lack size. Melo fills that need. He may need develop a little offensively, but he's playing with James and Wade so who needs his offense? His big body will give them something they don't have on their roster and his upside is tremendous. Ezeli would do the same thing but he doesn't have the potential Melo does.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Draymond Green
Green would be a great fit for this team for so many reasons. He is a winner. He is unselfish. He can score, rebound, and defend. He can add leadership. And he is ready to contribute immediately towards winning championships. Any questions?
29. Chicago Bulls: Tony Wroten Jr.
What the Bulls really need is a shooter. But Lamb and Jenkins are off the board, they may go another direction. I'd take this guy, who based on talent is an absolute steal this late in the draft. He would provide instant energy off the bench and could be groomed by Rose or learn to play with him. Plus, he would be a great insurance policy in case Rose doesn't respond well coming off his injury, or if he continues to be injured.
30. Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli
I thought a lot about Quincy Miller or Jeff Taylor here but with drafting SF Barnes with their first pick, they need to address another position. Size is something that is great to have and you don't have to teach it. Ezeli would be a great backup right away and could be groomed into a starting center.
So there you have. Expect to see this exact draft next Thursday... Or not. Feel free to comment and tell me where you disagree or what you would like your team to do.
Remember to enjoy the rest of the Finals, and tune in next Thursday for the draft. Later basketball fans!
Andrew
There are a lot of directions you can go with this pick. With them already drafting with the sixth pick, they will be looking to go with that one. With injuries and other factors, they haven't yet found a good inside play to pair with Aldridge; plus, a big that can run would be awesome to pair with Lillard who they picked above. Trading down is something to consider if an opportunity presents itself, but I love Zeller. The combine showed his legit 7-foot status and he is very polished.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Meyers Leonard
After trading Bogut, they could use another 7-footer to play inside. Henson was another option here but doesn't have the height or offensive game that Leonard does. Meyers impressed at the combine and really has risen on draft boards. He's also a nice addition to pair with Larry Sanders and some of the others on the inside.
13. Phoenix Suns: Dion Waiters
The Suns have quietly been solid in the frontcourt. They are suddenly weak in the backcourt though. Nash may be out of town and there is a need to add playmakers. Waiters isn't even close to the same type of player as Nash (and different position), but he is somebody that can make things happen and can become a player that changes games. His athleticism should translate perfectly to the NBA and is a possible steal at this point in the draft.
14. Houston Rockets: Jeremy Lamb
If a legit center (such as Zeller or Leonard) slide to them, I think they should pull the trigger. It would be nice to get a young big man next to Scola inside. But with those guys gone in this mock, I could see them targeting another scorer. Lamb is the best of the rest in that category. He has great upside and is still a very young player.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson
This was a tough decision. With Brand aging, I feel the seriously need size (even more than shooting). There are a number of power forwards though to consider: Henson, Jones, PJIII, Moultrie... I went with Henson because he is ready to contribute defensively, and has developed into a great finisher. His jumper is improving and he could pair with Hawes nicely inside.
16. Houston Rockets: Moe Harkless
The beauty of two picks around this part of the draft is that there are a lot of options. Like I said before, a center would be nice but it's too early for Fab Melo. There are power forwards to consider but they could use a small forward big time. Harkless is a bit of a flyer, but with Lamb taken earlier they can afford to do it. He never truly blossomed in college but in the NBA he could finally hit his stride.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Ross
The Mavericks are old, particularly in the backcourt. I think they try and target the best guard available. In this mock, Ross fits the bill as the best available right now. He is a great shooter that could spread the floor for Dirk and company. Also, he has much better size that Jason Terry who currently fills that role (not too mention much younger). I think he is so talented for the 17th pick. Of course, everything changes if they add somebody like Deron Williams (but we won't know that until after the draft).
18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrence Jones
If Ross is available here I think he could add the shooting the Wolves desire. But he is gone and therefore I think they go Jones. He is a top 10 talent that has slid in my mock. At the combine he showed he has a great NBA body. He can play outside but can mix it up inside too. With Kevin Love already dominating the paint, they could use Jones' athleticism here. I can envision lobs from Rubio all day!
19. Orlando Magic: Perry Jones III
Wow. Hard to believe a guy this talented could slip this far. But in this deep draft, and with his shaky season, most believe he is no longer the top ten pick he was destined to be. If Dwight Howard stays, PJIII could be great alongside him because he wouldn't have to be the beef. I think the Magic would be pleased if he does slip this far. I would be if I were them.
20. Denver Nuggets: Andrew Nicholson
Denver has a lot of depth so I think they will take the best player available. Nicholson is ready to contribute now but also has a lot of upside. He has a body ready for the rigors of the NBA and is fairly polished. With a budding defensive star in Faried inside, Nicholson can add some scoring punch down low. I think they would love if some of the guys just before this pick slid to them. If it were me, I'd even look to trade up if I can to grab a star.
21. Boston Celtics: Arnett Moultrie
With back to back picks, I think Boston tries to address two areas of need. At the same time, I think they take the best players available that are not point guards (already have Rondo). Moultrie is very long and can be a great replacement for Garnett when he moves on. KG would also be a great person to learn from if this pick happens.
22. Boston Celtics: John Jenkins
Initially I liked Royce White here but I think this makes more sense. Rondo and Bradley can't shoot and they are most likely losing Ray Allen. And when a shooter like Jenkins comes along, I don't think you can pass it up. Doron Lamb is another shooter to consider if going that route, but Jenkins has a quicker trigger and has unlimited range. I am a fan of shooting and believe it is vastly underrated.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Royce White
I could see Atlanta using this pick on a center (like Melo or Ezeli) or on a point guard (like Wroten Jr. or Teague). But if Royce White slides past Boston I would be thrilled. He would be a great playmaker at the small forward position and can be moved around just like Josh Smith. He is too great a talent to slide much farther than this. Marvin Williams didn't work but this SF might.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Doron Lamb
I had the Cavs taking Drummond earlier in the draft. So now I think they need a 2 or 3 with this pick. Taylor and Green were both options but I wanted more of a pure shooter. Lamb is the best available (with Jenkins going two picks earlier) and he would compliment Irving nicely in the backcourt. If Beal slides to them with the fourth pick, then I would take a big like Melo or Ezeli with this one.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Evan Fournier
The Grizzlies are in a tough spot. They are a talented team without a weakness, yet they lack a star. The 25th pick won't change that, only free agency will. With that in mind I would take a chance on Fournier, who is the best foreign player in the draft. They can even keep him in Europe with the chance he develops into the star they need.
On a side note, I would be aggressive in free agency to add the star they desire. I would trade Conley and others to free up money to attack Deron Williams.
The other option I would consider would be to trade this pick (if you can get something good from it), or go with Wroten Jr. who is a great talent that could turn into a star.
26. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague
Just like Memphis, I don't think they have a big weakness as a team. I would draft Teague though because he is an Indy kid (just like George Hill) and this would allow them to shop Collison. There are many other players I would consider here though including Wroten Jr., Green, Taylor, Ezeli, Melo, and Miller. I think they'll stick to the Indiana ties though.
27. Miami Heat: Fab Melo
They lack size. Melo fills that need. He may need develop a little offensively, but he's playing with James and Wade so who needs his offense? His big body will give them something they don't have on their roster and his upside is tremendous. Ezeli would do the same thing but he doesn't have the potential Melo does.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Draymond Green
Green would be a great fit for this team for so many reasons. He is a winner. He is unselfish. He can score, rebound, and defend. He can add leadership. And he is ready to contribute immediately towards winning championships. Any questions?
29. Chicago Bulls: Tony Wroten Jr.
What the Bulls really need is a shooter. But Lamb and Jenkins are off the board, they may go another direction. I'd take this guy, who based on talent is an absolute steal this late in the draft. He would provide instant energy off the bench and could be groomed by Rose or learn to play with him. Plus, he would be a great insurance policy in case Rose doesn't respond well coming off his injury, or if he continues to be injured.
30. Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli
I thought a lot about Quincy Miller or Jeff Taylor here but with drafting SF Barnes with their first pick, they need to address another position. Size is something that is great to have and you don't have to teach it. Ezeli would be a great backup right away and could be groomed into a starting center.
So there you have. Expect to see this exact draft next Thursday... Or not. Feel free to comment and tell me where you disagree or what you would like your team to do.
Remember to enjoy the rest of the Finals, and tune in next Thursday for the draft. Later basketball fans!
Andrew
Now that we are days away from the draft, there are many adjustments that could be made:
ReplyDeleteWith the Wizards/Hornets deal last week, they changes the rosters completely of those two squads. There picks may change as well.
With the news on injury prone Sullinger, he will slide significantly I think.
There are many trade scenarios now in place...such as the Bobcats at two (Cavs may move up), Hornets with their 10 pick, etc. That will change things in a big way.
And the list of players working out for certain teams is growing and changing.
Bottom line is that the above mock, as it states, is what I would do if I were drafting. So although some of this stuff may change what happens on draft day, my board is still somewhat similar.
Andrew
- Now there is very real talk the Bobcats will trade down. In fact, I would be surprised if it didn't happen.
ReplyDelete- The Rockets just acquired the 18th pick by trading Chase Budinger. Love it. Now hold 14,16, 18 and can either stockpile great talent in a deep draft, or make a run for Dwight Howard. They have even talked about trading Kyle Lowry for a top 10 pick which gives them even more flexibility to be creative. I love that position. If not Dwight they can at least get somebody like Josh Smith or someone!
If I were the Rockets, I would trade 2 of my picks in the teens to get high enough to take Kidd-Gilchrist (first choice) or Bradley Beal (second choice). I trade Lowry to Portland (who needs a point guard) and draft big boy Drummond with the sixth pick. Then, with the remaining pick in the teens, I draft the best available point guard to make up for Lowry (probably Kendall Marshall). They would be young and fast, with the ability to grow into a great team like the Thunder did. Luis Scola is still there at power forward for stability and Kevin Martin for scoring. Still have young pieces like Marcus Morris, Patrick Patterson, Courtney Lee, and Goran Dragic for a cheap, young bench. Dump salaries in Camby and Dalembert to get enough money for a good young free agent and you're in business. May struggle for a year while players adapt but so did OKC! Next year draft another stud and you're good to go!
ReplyDelete