After a roller coaster ride through the Conference Finals,
we’re now sitting on the brink of the NBA Finals. Not only that, but we’re
gearing up for the matchup that everyone wanted. If you are a basketball fan,
this is getting you pumped nearly as much as March Madness. Today we’ll take a
closer look at the matchup.
The Stars: Lebron James vs. Kevin Durant
This matchup is obviously what everyone will focus on.
Lebron is the MVP (again) and Durant is the scoring champ (again). Most
consider these two the best players on the planet, and they even play the same
position. They are different types of players though.
Lebron seems the have the better all-around game. He sets up
his teammates better by superior passing. He mixes it up inside better by
rebounding and blocking shots. His defense is better by guarding every position
on the court, getting tips and steals. And he scores well too, averaging 33 vs.
the Celtics in the last series.
But Durant is pretty good at that stuff too, and his scoring
ability is great. He shoots much better from the outside than James and his
free throw percentage is a large advantage (especially in the clutch). He
possesses a similar size and athletic ability to impact the game from all over
the court.
Experience could be a factor as this is Lebron’s third NBA
finals vs. Durant’s first. But James has never played well in this big stage so
maybe that is a mute point.
Slight Advantage: Heat
– Lebron impacts the game in more ways and has the ball in his hands more (due
to Westbrook being on Thunder)
The Guards: Chalmers/Wade vs. Westbrook/Harden
Most figure the series will be “small ball” with each team
only playing one big for a large part of the game. Guard play will be extremely
important. In this series, the guards will be looked to score, set up
teammates, defend, and even rebound.
The most important guards for the Heat are Mario Chalmers
and Dwayne Wade. Chalmers is an overlooked player for the Heat, but he can
shoot it and plays off the stars well. Wade can play at times like the best
player out there but has been quiet in the playoffs too. I would expect on this
stage for his best to come out. That includes the ability to take over games.
The Thunder feature talented young guns Russell Westbrook
and James Harden. Both can score, both can defend, both can rebound, and both
set up teammates. The only problem is that they both can’t have the ball in
their hands all the time. They both play a lot of minutes and will be keys in
this series.
Slight Advantage: Thunder
– Two legit stars vs. Wade and a role player: 2 > 1
The “Bigs”: Bosh/Haslem vs. Ibaka/Perkins
I said in the last section that each team will play small a lot
of the time. But the inside players will still have a huge impact on each game.
In the last series the emergence of Serge got the Thunder past the Spurs and
Bosh’s return helped the Heat survive against Boston.
If you are going off reputation, then the Heat should
dominate these matchups. Bosh is an all-star level player with an inside and
outside offensive game. Haslem is a great role player that has played well in
the playoffs throughout his career and helped win a title years ago. The problem
here is that they take away minutes from each other, sometimes struggle within
the flow of the offense, and Bosh is still coming back from an injury. Will
these things have an effect?
The Thunder have a budding star in Ibaka. He is becoming a
stud defensively and is continuing to develop as an offensive player. In my
opinion, He was the reason they gained an edge on San Antonio in the last
round. Kendrick Perkins is their beef. He likes to mix it up inside and does a
great job defending the paint and controlling the boards. These two guys are
healthy and comfortable with the roles they have settled into. They have great
chemistry.
Slight Advantage: Heat
– Bosh is the key here. If he plays well, they are a different team. I think
his health shouldn’t be much of a concern in this series. His jumpshot also
really opens up the lane for his teammates.
Depth and Coaching
Neither team has much depth. Harden does come off the bench
but plays starter’s minutes. Bosh came off the bench last series but may start
again in this one. Thabo and Shane are the token defenders on each squad, and
any offense they give is a bonus. Each team has a offense off the bench
with Miller for Miami and Cook for Oklahoma City. Joel Anthony provides an
inside presence when used for the Heat, but Nick Collison does the same thing
for the Thunder. To be honest though, depth won’t be much of a factor in this
series. Both teams rely on their stars to play monster minutes. Both teams have
young players to handle all that time on the court. Plus with days off in
between games, both teams will remain fresh throughout the series.
I believe there is a difference in coaching. Scott Brooks
has done a great job with this crew. They have improved steadily each season
and taken a step forward in the playoffs too. They didn’t struggle nearly as
much in the playoffs as the Heat did in large part because of him. He doesn’t
get scrutinized which helps, but his rotation has remained steady and therefore
they have played more consistent. And I was impressed how his changes spurred
four straight wins vs. the Spurs.
Erik Spoelstra on the other hand has been shaky. His handle
on late game situations has been terrible. His lineup has been inconsistent and
that kills the chemistry. I don’t think he gets his team ready to play that well day in and day out.
They have also had struggles now in two straight series, which reflects on him.
I should also mention the failure they experienced last year at this stage in
the year. He is on the hot seat if they don’t win.
Advantage: Thunder
– Read above and it’s clear to me coaching is the difference.
Overall
If you add up the above categories you get two advantages
for each squad. I believe this series will show that these two teams are pretty
even. Both have great home court advantages and that may be what decides
this series in OKC's favor.
My Official Pick: Thunder in 7 – MVP Kevin Durant
Greg’s Official Pick: Thunder in 5 – MVP James Harden
Andrew
I disagree with you on quite a bit in this series.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all: Durant will impact this series more than Lebron for the exact reason you stated: he doesn't have to do everything for his team in order for them to be successful. He has more energy to expend on the offensive end, and as we saw last night, has the length to bother Lebron on jump-shots.
So in response to your first section, I'd say its a push. Neither team has the advantage.
Backcourt play is also decidedly in the Thunder's favor. Wade is going to have to work very hard to get by players who are nearly as athletic as he is and a little bit taller. The same thing happened to James Harden last night (which I'm a little surprised at). I thought the Heat would try to limit Westbrook and Durant and let Harden beat them, but they chose to take Harden out of the game and Durant and Westbrook outscored the Heat by themselves 41-40 in the second half of the game. This is much more than a slight edge, HUGE edge to the Thunder here.
I also disagree about the frontcourt: Perkins, Ibaka, and Collison are much more physical, dominant presences inside than Bosh is when he's 100%. Bosh clearly is not 100% and the Thunder have a huge advantage rebounding the ball (as evidenced last night 43-35) in the frontcourt. Collison and Ibaka are going to be big problems for the Heat.
Coaching: No argument there. It seems as though Spoelstra is going to be outcoached by whoever he goes against, but I think that is only because of the meek nature of his superstars. He's a better coach than he gets credit for, but not as good as Scott Brooks.
Thunder in 5.
About Lebron vs. Durant: Durant is a better scorer but James is better everywhere else. James was torching Durant so I don't think he bothered James too much. It was Thabo that really slowed James down in that fourth quarter. You are right that Durant doesn't have to do as much but that is what makes James special...he does it all. The downside to that is that Durant has players around him that spread the floor so he got easier looks. James is contested on everything and still dropped 30 with ten boards. I said slight advantage and am sticking to it.
ReplyDeleteWith the guards I did put advantage Thunder (just not huge like you said). Chalmers was effective last night when included in the game plan, and when Wade decides to play like Wade, he is great. Remember he was a Finals MVP. We both agree though the Thunder have an advantage in large part because of Harden. But he was a non-factor. That takes away the advantage. I'll stick with slight edge Thunder, not huge.
Lastly, the bigs discussion comes down to coaching. If stupid Spoelstra would play Chris Bosh, he is the best big men on the court. When he doesn't play him as much like last night, the Thunder can get it done. I do think Bosh is 100% and I think he should play close to 40 minutes. At least 35 though. He spreads the floor for Wade and James, brings an offensive game that no other big on either team can bring, and his length bothers the Thunder on the other end. Also, Perkins is worthless...just saying. Collison did make a difference though but no more than Haslem. It comes down to Bosh and Ibaka and if Spoelstra coaches correctly the Heat should have an edge.
Andrew
Look at the stats. Durant matched Lebron is almost every statistical category and Lebron was guarding him most of the night. He scored 17 points in the 4th, and it was really the 3rd quarter that Thabo slowed Lebron down, not the 4th.
ReplyDeleteThe Thunder guards dominated the Heat guards without James Harden. It is a HUGE differential between the two teams.
I'd take Perkins/Collison/Ibaka over Bosh/Haslem any day of the week. Perkins is not worthless, he's a bruiser, excellent rebounder, and a real presence on the court. He is not an offensive force, and that's why you think he is worthless. But there is a reason Bosh decided to stay out on the 3 point line and not go inside. Perkins and Ibaka would eat him alive. Collison made a much bigger impact in game 1 than Haslem. 1 solid guy(perkins), 1 freak athlete(ibaka), & 1 blue collar worker(Collison) > 1 pretty boy(Bosh), and 1 blue collar worker(Haslem).
Tonight is an elimination game for the Heat because of the 2,3,2 format.
As I said, OKC in 5.
I don't know if this is possible but you are starting to make me cheer for the Heat. There is a reason the Heat are in the finals, and there is a reason that James and Wade are considered Elite.
ReplyDeleteYou also can't base anything on just one game. If I did that then I would say something like, "Well, James Harden is worthless and won't impact the series." That's stupid. Just because somethings happened in Game 1 doesn't mean anything for the rest of the series. The fact that Wade did nothing and Spoelstra coached terribly and they still nearly won means that they are okay.
Bosh sticks to jumpers because he is good at them. Dirk is a big that also sticks to jumpers. I'm not comparing the two because Dirk is way better but point is that's his role. Him doing that also allows James and Wade to attack. It keeps the floor spread. That's why stupid Spoelstra should play him more.
And about tonight, I expect a very hard fought game just like I expect for the series. I still say Thunder in 7 (6 is is doable but definitely not 5).
From Andrew:
ReplyDeleteJust like I told you, can't judge anything based on one game.
Last night, James won the battle vs. Durant. They scored the same amount but James added 8 boards and 5 assists (to Durant's 3/1). Plus, it was more the timing of the James points that was key. Durant scored most of his points when they were playing catchup. James point build a lead (which was so important) and his point closed out the game (jumper with 2 minutes left and free throws). One of the most important stats of the night was Lebron 12/12 at the line. Last night showed why I give Lebron a slight advantage over Durant in importance.
On the flip side, last night showed when Bosh is the key inside player in the series. He played 40 minutes last night like I've been saying he should. In that time he put up 16 points and grabbed 15 boards. Huge plus and way better than anything Thunder players can offer. Plus, when on the court the Heat were +11 which was the best plus/minus of any player on the team. That's why I gave Heat slight advantage inside.
Lastly, how about Shane Battier? Unreal start to the series for him. We all know he's a pest on defense, but his offense has sparked the team as well. He barely missed last night and his late three (banked in and all) was a key.
I still say Thunder in 7 though.
Now after 4 games, your prediction Greg is looking terrible. Mine is 7 isn't likely. I don't think Miami will lose 3 games in a row and are now probably going to win it all.
ReplyDeleteJames has been better than Durant for sure and is clearly the best player in the world (finally living up to his MVP status). He has also been clutch and is the reason the Heat are up 3-1.
Bosh has been the best big man, despite playing inconsistently.
Harden has been a no-show and is the main reason the Thunder can't keep up. We both expected a nice series from him and he's produced nothing.
Here' to hoping the series continues past tomorrow...
Andrew