It's officially championship season in the sports world. We just witnessed Rafael Nadal winning the French Open, the Los Angeles Kings winning the Stanley Cup, the Oklahoma City Thunder taking Game 1 of the NBA Finals last night, and now we're preparing for the US Open.
The US Open is my favorite event in golf (that and the Master's). Most years it is at the toughest venues, it's over Father's Day weekend (which is fun for my dad and I), and it's in the middle of the year when lots of people are playing well. This year should be great. Below I will go through the pairings that stand out and discuss the chances of those players.
Thursday Morning off Front Nine
10:59 - Patrick Cantley (a), Jonathan Byrd, Kyle Stanley - Cantley is one of the best amateurs in the world. Most expect big things from him including myself. A great goal for him though should be to just make the cut. Jonathan Byrd is coming off a stretch of great play. He was 27th at the Masters, but then top 12 in his last four events. I don't think he can win but he can get another top 15 if he performs well. Kyle Stanley was one of the great early story lines in 2012. He has been quiet of late. Although he has the game, I don't expect much from him this week.
11:10 - Retief Goosen, Vijay Singh, Zach Johnson - Retief and Vijay are both major champions who know how to get it done. Both, however, are out of their primes and don't stand a chance this week. Making the cut would be an accomplishment. Johnson however is coming off a great win a few weeks ago. He is not a long hitter but a consistent one. Putting will be key this week so he has a chance to be around the leaders come Sunday.
11:32 - Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson - This group of players are major contenders. Adam's name comes up in big tournaments consistently, but he hasn't gotten it done at a major. His recent form is nothing to write home about, but you can't count him out. Keegan is only playing in his third major and first US Open, but after he won the PGA Championship last year in his first start, you know he potentially can get it done. I like Webb Simpson, but he hasn't come close this year to his production last year. I don't to hear his name too much this weekend.
Thursday Morning off Back Nine
10:33 - Bubba Watson, Phil Mickleson, Tiger Woods - This is the marquee group of the entire event. They might not be the top three in the world but outside of Rory, the most talked about. All three are threats to win obviously. Phil has been quiet for the most part this year and he seems to always choke at the US Open. He can be top 10 but won't win. Bubba won the year's first major and it's so hard to win two in the same year. I don't see it happening. Tiger though is my pick to win it all. He's won twice this year, is in good form, and he loves US Opens. It's been four years since he last won a major (2008 US Open) and he'll end the drought this week.
10:55 - Davis Love III, David Toms, Padraig Harrington - The old stars are paired in a flash to the past grouping. All will enjoy their time here and play their hardest. I don't like Harrington in this event, Toms will have to putt lights out, but Davis can make some noise. He played well last week so I expect that play to continue. Two of these guys will make the cut, one will not.
11:28 - Y.E. Yang, KJ Choi, K.T. Kim - This is a group people on the other side of the globe are eyeing. We should too. They can all play. Kim is an amazing putter and if he gets hot, he can make some birdies and climb the leaderboard fast. Choi is as steady as they come. Come Sunday, don't be surprised to see his name in the top 15. Yang knows how to win at this level and against great competition. Like many others, this year hasn't been great but no better time than now to get it going.
Thursday Afternoon off Front Nine
4:29 - Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood - The top three players in the world have played like it for most of the year. Rory of course will be defending his title, and the other two headline some of the best players in golf never to win a major. Of the two, I like Lee a lot this week. He has all the tools, the mental makeup, and I expect a top five finish (possible win). Rory of course I like to be in the mix. I'd say possible top ten but I doubt he wins it again this year.
4:40 - Jim Furyk, Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell - Another group of talented players that are now considered veterans. Sergio is the only one here still looking for his first major after being so close for so long. Don't bet on it. I do like Furyk to make some noise however.
5:02 - Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy - We know these guys can play in big events, but they are also now considered past their prime. As a cagey vet I like Ernie. He has played well again this year now that he is a bit more healthy. He gets a little squirrely on the greens but still hits is so well (and smooth). He's my pick of any older player.
Thursday Afternoon off Back Nine
4:14 through 4:58 - Bill Haas, Nick Watney, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer, Hunter Mahan, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Ian Poulter, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Ryo Ishikawa, Dustin Johnson:
If you want some intriguing storylines, follow this collection of five tee times that are filled with stars and big names. Each player here (outside of Spieth and possibly Ishikawa) are legit players with a chance to win this tournament. Many have been in great form in 2012 picking up wins at some great events. I expect to see a handful of these guys in contention come Sunday afternoon.
The Pick 5 Challenge
This challenge is simple: pick five players who you think will perform well this year. After the event, we'll compare the five to see who picked the best. There are some rules on picking:
You must pick to fulfill each of the following categories. An individual can fulfill more than one category, plus you can pick more than the challenge requires from certain categories as long as the others are fulfilled. Remember though, only five guys total:
- 2 non-Americans
- 1 Major Champion
- 1 Non-Major Champion
- 1 Darkhorse/Underdog Ranked Outside Top 25 in the World
- 1 Whose Age is in 20's
- 1 in 30's
- 1 in 40's
Andrew's Picks: Tiger Woods, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, Dustin Johnson, Martin Laird
Greg's Picks (for more details on these picks, please view the comment section): Keegan Bradley, Bo Van Pelt, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Phil Mickleson
That's all from me. Enjoy the week!
Andrew
From Greg:
ReplyDeleteThe US Open this year is going to be incredibly exciting, and incredibly challenging. Olympic Club is one of the more challenging venues in golf (as most U.S. Open Courses are) with its long, narrow, tree-lined fairways, long par-3 holes, and the longest par-5 in major championship history. Also thrown into the mix is the fact that only 2 of the 18 holes are par 5's, which should significantly affect players' chances to score low, as the opportunities for eagles will be limited to basically 1 hole. If players are going to go low, they will have to do it on par 4 holes (which is what makes it so difficult). Players this week will have to do well by doing three things very well:
1. Hit fairways.
While this is always the case, Olympic Club exaggerates the accuracy of driving the ball because of its deep rough and troublesome tree-lined fairways. Players may choose to sacrifice distance often going with less than driver, in order to stay in manageable hitting locations.
2. Hit GIR
As Andrew always says to me, "It's not that you miss shots in golf that matters, because everyone misses shots, but it is WHERE you miss shots". Players will very easily get into trouble off the tee, and hitting the greens in 2 is going to be very important, as the scores will probably be low. Par is going to be a great score on most holes.
3. Putting
This will determine this tournament. I expect most players to play it safe and get to the greens in regulation most times. It will come down to a putting contest and I think the greens at Olympic Club are the least challenging element of the golf course.
All that being said here are my top 5 picks for the 2012 U.S. Open:
Keegan Bradley: Major Winner, 20's
Bradley's natural draw fits well with this course, and he has a knack for coming up with big putts in clutch situations. I like his chances this week.
Bo Van Pelt: Underdog/Darkhorse
Van Pelt has quietly been sneaking under the radar, finishing in the top 20 in his last 5 events. He has come very close to being in contention at some of the bigger tournaments recently, and if his putter gets hot he could very well win this tournament.
Lee Westwood: Non-American,Non Major Winner, 30s
Lee has been playing great golf. This course sets up well for him if he can handle the pressure. The opening two-day group of McIlroy, Westwood, and Donald will only help the threesome be more comfortable to start the tournament.
Rory McIlroy: Major Winner, 20's, Non-American
Rory finally made the cut at an event, and apart from an errant tee shot on 18 in the final round played very well. As with Westwood, the first 2 round pairing will only help him to play well.
Phil Mickelson: Major Winner, 40's
Phil will want to bounce back from his disappointing showing 2 weeks ago. Most tournaments in California Phil loves, and plays well at. I also think playing with Tiger and Bubba the first two rounds will bring out the competetive juices in Phil, and I believe over the last 12 rounds they have played together, Phil has scored better than Tiger in all of them.
Whoever wins, this is a great venue, a great event, and I'll be at home sipping on my Arnold Palmer (Yes, supermarket lady, they're non-alcoholic and I can buy them on Sundays in Indiana), and enjoying great golf, and great weather.
Vamos Rafa!
Well Greg, the US Open is over and it was majorly exciting! Webb Simpson played the best on Sunday and that proved to be most important. Just ask Tiger, who played the best of anyone the first two days, only to fade quickly on Saturday and Sunday. Maybe he isn't back.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, who won the Pick 5 Challenge? ANDREW!!! Who else?
Greg's only pick to miss the cut was Rory (who missed by two shots) while Andrew actually had two picks miss the cut (DJ and Laird each by a shot). But despite that advantage, Andrew's guys produced.
We each had Lee Westwood and he produced and made our pick there look good. The difference was that Tiger and Ernie for me were top 21 finishers. They made approximately 286,000 in prize money. You final three who made the cut (Phil, Keegan, and Bo) were among the worst performers on the weekend. They finished below 60th and in total made around 56,000 all together. Andrew wins!!!
Until next time Greg, just know that I own you!
Andrew